New online tool allows us to see Bangladesh Covid-19 death scenarios — comparing effectiveness of different levels of lockdown

A few days ago, Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis created a new “scenario analysis tool” which allows us all to understand the likely impact of the Covid-19 epidemic in Bangladesh — depending on the level of intervention the government puts in place to slow down infection rates. The tool’s mathematics is based around the official number of deaths as announced by the government — and from those numbers, they back-model the estimated number of infections which then allows the mathematicians to make the scenarios for the future (taking into account demographics, disease spread etc)

For Bangladesh, the tool is very instructive — making clear the crucial significance (if one was not aware already) of reducing virus transmission levels.

If for example we were to assume that the current version of Bangladesh’s lockdown (compared to normal life) will from now on result in a 75% reduction in the transmission of the virus, the model shows there would be a steady increase in the daily number of infections peaking as high as 6,600 deaths each day at the beginning of October. By the end of December, the daily number of deaths would have reduced to around 240 deaths, and by end of February 2021 would be around 18 deaths a day (Figure 1)

However, if we were to assume that the current lockdown only reduces infection transmission levels to 60%, the number of daily deaths would peak at the beginning of August at around 57,000 deaths per day, with the epidemic ending in mid-November (Figure 2).

If however we assumed the infection transmission level is in fact now reduced to 90%, then the peak would be in mid-June where the daily deaths would peak at 70 death, and the epidemic would be over by early August (Figure 3).

It is difficult, of course, to know exactly whether the current lockdown is reducing the transmission of infection by 60%, 75% or 90% — or somewhere in between. However, what that percentage actually is, has a huge impact on the number of deaths in Bangladesh.

Access the tool here: https://covidsim.org/v1.20200524

To replicate the analysis in this blog: Choose Bangladesh. Put duration of intervention to end of year, Put reduction in both blue lines, to 60%, 75% or 90%. The tool allows you to choose many different options to work out what might be the most effective policy.

/DB