French Presidential Election. 1/2 to 2nd round.

Half way to 2nd round. To election. Sunday May 7th 2017.

4/24, 1st round saw Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen finalists to the French Presidential Election. Hereafter is a quick look at where we stand.

Reminder from previous post:

* On both primaries, we found an interesting fact: the leader in hashtags won his elections, both times.
* The rule of “hashtag leader wins” didn’t apply, as Filon arrived 3rd.
* Candidates who increased their hashtag shares before 1st round also increased their results vs intentions.

1st week in 2nd round: Dupont-Aignan up, Le Pen and Melenchon flat, Macron, Fillon and Hamon down.

Dupon-Aignan made his “coup” in ralying Le Pen on 4/29. Melenchon kept flat with his absence of clear vote direction.

Macron follows Hamon and Fillon which is surprising after arriving #1 in 1st round.

In the past 2 days, Macron has an increase in negatives while Le Pen sees less negative and an increase in positive

Le Pen on the left, Macron on the right. red means negative, green positive.

Looking at Macron

Jean Lassalle, Alain Juppe and Jean-Luc Melenchon are all negative about Macron.

Hereafter is a comparison of negative (red)/positive(green) people and term topic types.

Examples of negative tweets on those 3 all negative.

Jean Lassalle

Alain Juppe

Jean-Luc Melenchon

Looking at Le Pen

Not a lot of negatives.

Hereafter is a comparison of negative (red)/positive(green) people and term topic types.

1/ her #hashtags are mostly positive
2/ Positives, even when opponents are mentioned (Fillon, Melenchon)
3/ Dupon-Aignan is seen as all positive for her
4/ Whirlpool is positive for her

What is negative to them

For Macron:

  • His link to Hollande and Sarkozy
  • He’s linked to the #hashtag #SansMoile7Mai which means he doesn’t trigger a vote for him against Le Pen
  • His past as a banker

For Le Pen

  • Macron and Fillon
  • France
  • Her as a President

Conclusion

Overall, the first week of this 2nd round is positive to Le Pen.

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