Are we there yet: The Arrival Fallacy

AJ Keller
Neurosity
Published in
8 min readSep 1, 2023

--

"If I reach this goal, I’ll be happy.”

If you’ve ever found yourself caught in this when/then mindset, you’re in good company. Whether your aim is to complete a marathon, secure a job promotion, or purchase your first home, having a clear goal can significantly boost your motivation. However, it’s a common misconception to assume that accomplishing these goals will automatically translate into happiness. This common cognitive trap is referred to as the “arrival fallacy.”

Typically, it unfolds like this: when you achieve a goal, there’s an initial rush of delight. However, this elation is often short-lived, and before long, you return to your baseline level of happiness or, in some cases, even feel a sense of emptiness. The letdown of not experiencing the anticipated happiness, or only experiencing it briefly, can have a lasting impact on your overall well-being. Rather than succumbing to the arrival fallacy, it’s imperative to rethink your approach to goals, ensuring that you can sidestep the anticlimax.

The concept of the arrival fallacy was first introduced by Dr. Tal Ben-Shahar, a psychologist with Harvard training, in his book “Happier: Can You Learn to Be Happy?” Dr. Ben-Shahar’s personal experience as a young elite squash player played a pivotal role in the development of this idea.

During his competitive squash career, Dr. Ben-Shahar held a recurring belief that winning a match or a tournament would inevitably result in lasting happiness. While it’s true that he did experience a surge of happiness immediately following a victory, this feeling proved to be transient. Soon after the initial euphoria faded, he found himself grappling with stress, immense pressure, and a pervasive sense of emptiness.

The crucial insight Dr. Ben-Shahar gained from this experience was that achieving a single goal didn’t yield the enduring happiness or contentment he had anticipated. Instead, it merely triggered the emergence of new sporting targets, perpetuating an unending cycle of goal setting and achievement. His list of goals remained perpetually uncompleted as each accomplishment gave rise to new aspirations.

Dr. Ben-Shahar’s personal journey served as a poignant reminder that genuine happiness does not depend on the attainment of goals alone. Rather, it’s a complex and ongoing process that involves a deep understanding of oneself and the ability to find joy in the journey, not just the destination.

Why goal-based happiness is short lived

Dr. Maya Pilin has delved deeper into our ability to predict our future emotions, uncovering a fascinating aspect of human psychology. She found that our affective forecasting, which involves imagining how a particular event or achievement will make us feel, is often remarkably inaccurate. This inherent inaccuracy is a matter of concern since our capacity to predict our emotional responses plays a vital role in our decision-making process.

But why do we struggle so much when it comes to forecasting our levels of happiness accurately? Psychologists Timothy Wilson and Daniel Gilbert have provided valuable insights into this phenomenon, attributing the inaccuracies in our predictions to what they call the “impact bias.” The impact bias leads us to overestimate both the duration and intensity of the positive emotions we anticipate experiencing as a result of a particular event or achievement. In simpler terms, we tend to believe that achieving a goal will bring us enduring and intense happiness.

Consider this scenario: after years of hard work, you finally land your dream job. Without a doubt, this accomplishment will bring you a surge of happiness, at least initially. However, as Dr. Pilin and psychologists like Wilson and Gilbert point out, the impact bias leads us to overestimate the long-lasting positive effects. We often assume that reaching this goal will be the ultimate source of happiness, failing to recognize that new ambitions and aspirations will inevitably surface, keeping us in a perpetual cycle of chasing happiness through external achievements.

On top of this, it’s important to acknowledge that happiness cannot be solely tied to a single facet of life, such as career success. As Dr. Pilin suggests, other vital aspects of our lives, including our health, relationships, and financial well-being, play crucial roles in shaping our overall mood and contentment.

The Arrival Fallacy in Action

We’ve come to understand that the arrival fallacy, the belief that achieving our goals will usher in lasting happiness, exerts a significant influence on our lives. This cognitive bias isn’t without its consequences, affecting both our future decision-making and emotional well-being in profound ways.

Just imagine you’ve just completed a marathon, and the initial euphoria quickly fades, leaving you feeling empty. It’s a classic case of the arrival fallacy in action. In response, you might draw the conclusion that the effort required to excel in such endeavors isn’t worth the temporary happiness it brings.

Alternatively, you might impulsively seek out new challenges, chasing that fleeting peak of happiness, without fully weighing the potential consequences of your choices.

Dr. Adam Dorr’s insight into the disappointment associated with the arrival fallacy sheds further light on this phenomenon. He explains that this disappointment arises from perceiving possible futures as static destinations or goals, rather than recognizing them as snapshots of a continuously evolving process.

Indeed, happiness is not a static endpoint that we can reach simply by achieving a goal. While meeting a goal can provide a brief surge of contentment, our happiness levels continue to fluctuate in response to the multitude of internal and external events we encounter in life.

Even those in higher education are not immune to the allure of the arrival fallacy. For instance, a study revealed that assistant professors often predicted that receiving tenure would have a significant and lasting impact on their happiness. However, when researchers later assessed their happiness levels, there was no notable difference between those who had achieved tenure and those who had not.

Similarly, many people harbor the belief that their lives would become significantly better or more enjoyable after winning a substantial lottery prize. However, the work of Dr. Philip Brickman and colleagues unveiled a striking revelation: major lottery winners were not any happier than their neighbors who hadn’t won.

In fact, the winners derived significantly less pleasure from mundane everyday activities, suggesting that their emotional well-being may have been negatively affected by their newfound wealth — not only suggesting that happiness lies in appreciating the small joys of day-to-day life — but also a poignant reminder of the perils of tying our happiness solely to the attainment of a goal (especially a monetary one!).

Managing Our Expectations

We know that achieving a goal often triggers an initial rush of endorphins, those feel-good neurotransmitters that make us feel on top of the world. However, what follows can be a bit of a rollercoaster ride. There’s a fork in the road: you might experience disappointment, feeling that all the effort you invested didn’t quite pay off as expected. Alternatively, you could find yourself caught up in a whirlwind of excitement, eagerly pursuing a new, bigger, and more exhilarating goal.

In the face of this, you might be tempted to conclude that goal-setting itself is flawed, and perhaps it’s better to live life without setting any goals at all. However, that might not be the most effective strategy. Dr. Tal Ben-Shahar, a prominent psychologist, maintains that having objectives is fundamental to personal growth.

While it’s true that completing a goal can sometimes lead to the arrival fallacy, where the happiness surge is fleeting and followed by a slump, goals serve as guiding stars in our journey of self-improvement. They provide direction, motivation, and a sense of purpose. Goals encourage us to stretch beyond our comfort zones, learn new skills, and expand our horizons.

The key lies in how we approach our goals. Instead of fixating solely on the end result, we should learn to appreciate the process — the setbacks, the lessons, the small victories along the way. By finding joy in the journey itself, we can reduce the impact of the arrival fallacy and derive lasting satisfaction from our pursuit of objectives.

In essence, goals are not the problem; it’s our relationship with them that matters. When approached mindfully and with a focus on personal growth, goals can be powerful tools for positive transformation, propelling us forward on our path to fulfillment and contentment.

The key is to reframe your motivation to shift your outlook, elevating the journey toward your goals to a level as significant as the end result itself. This approach can help you steer clear of disappointment once you reach your destination. Here are three strategies to help you evade the arrival fallacy:

  1. Avoid projecting your happiness onto future goals:

If you catch yourself saying, “I will be happy when I [move abroad, have a baby, receive tenure],” it’s important to recognize that placing unrealistic expectations on a goal to provide long-term well-being can lead to disappointment. Instead of relying on these when/then projections, practice mindfulness and appreciate what currently brings you happiness. Rather than hoping for happiness only when you reach your goal, actively acknowledge the positives in your present life. This can be achieved through journaling or meditation.

2. Shift your focus to the journey, not just the outcome:

While working toward a goal, savor the process so that you’re not solely dependent on reaching the finish line for joy. Allow yourself to relish the pleasures of learning, connecting with experts in your field, tackling new challenges, delivering exceptional presentations, or solving complex problems. Embrace the art of learning, thinking, and honing skills like creativity and decision-making. This way, regardless of the ultimate outcome, the journey itself becomes rewarding and fulfilling.

3. Celebrate the small victories along the way:

Recognize that minor milestones can serve as stepping stones to bigger achievements. A micro-win might involve scheduling a call with a new client or completing a one-mile run without stopping for the first time. Focusing on these smaller wins can make you feel more productive and happier, even if you haven’t yet reached your long-term goal. Celebrating these micro-wins eases the pressure on achieving the main goal, allowing you to experience sustained happiness rather than fleeting moments of joy.

The Crown and the Moment

My favorite tool for managing my expectations and keeping the arrival fallacy at bay is using The Crown.

For me, it’s a tool that can transform the way I approach my life and goals. By helping me stay focused on the present moment and fostering a mindset of mindful concentration, it empowers me to find happiness not only at the finish line of my aspirations but also in the journey itself.

Plus, the real-time neurofeedback helps me focus on how I can improve my work processes which gives me something other than the outcome to think about.

So there we have it…

If you’re often plagued by the arrival fallacy, start by taking one of my 3 outlined steps towards a more balanced and fulfilling approach to life — where both the journey and the destination hold equal importance — ultimately helping you avoid the pitfalls of the arrival fallacy.

--

--

AJ Keller
Neurosity

Co-founder of Neurosity | Friend of Dogs | On a mission to accelerate the advent of thought computing.