The Week Ahead: Week of May 14th

Chelsea Manning, The CIA, Ebola, and Germany: The Week Ahead

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen visits German soldiers at their Bundswehr Air Force Base in Incirlik, Turkey on January 21, 2016. (Photo: REUTERS/Tobias Schwarz)

THE US

• The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals: Today, three judges from the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (West Coast) will hear Justice Department lawyers argue in favor of President Donald J. Trump’s so-called Muslim ban, two months after a Federal judge in Hawaii halted its core portions. The three judge panel will be seated by the Honorable Michael Hawkins, Ronald Gould, and Richard Paez — all Clinton appointees who will have to be convinced that Trump’s campaign rhetoric has not informed his decision to ban travelers and refugees from Muslim majority countries. After their decision is released, it is expected that the 4th court of appeals — seated by 13 federal judges — will release their own following a separate hearing conducted last week; should the decisions come out in contention, it is likely that the case will later be reviewed by the Supreme Court — though the override of the ban will remain in effect with at least one of the courts striking down the order.
• Poll, James Comey Firing: A new NBJ/WSJ Poll has found that only 29% of Americans approve of former FBI Director James Comey’s firing, abruptly undertaken by President Donald J. Trump in the first week of May. Breaking down the numbers, 58% of Republicans versus 9% of Democrats approve of his firing, while only 21% of Independents do; overall, 38% of US adults disapprove of his firing, and 32% have no opinion.
• The CIA: According to a memo released to the press by the CIA on May 10th, the intelligence organization has established a “Korea Mission Center,” which will operate in order to “ harness the full resources, capabilities, and authorities of the Agency in addressing the nuclear and ballistic missile threat posed by North Korea.” A seasoned veteran of the agency has been appointed the Assistant Director for Korea and will preside over the new Center, which has been established as tensions between the US and the rogue nation are at an all time high.
• Richard Spencer and Charlottesville, Va.: On Saturday, May 13th, White nationalist Richard Spencer lead a group of white-shirted protesters through the streets of Charlottesville, Va. — home to the University of Virginia (his alma mater), and where the city council voted to sell and remove a Robert E. Lee statue in April. Later in the night, Mr. Spencer and remaining protesters marched through Lee Park yielding torches (a common Fascist tactic due to its symbolism and aesthetic) before a confrontation with another group of protesters lead police to disperse the groups. The protest was ultimately about impeding what members of the alt-right view as erasure of their white-identity.
• Congressman Frelinghuysen (R-NJ.11): Republican Representative Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) signed and delivered a letter to a board member of a bank local to his district in March of 2017, stating that certain coalitions and groups existed to undermine the Trump agenda. At the bottom of the letter, a handwritten note outed one of the banks senior vice presidents and counselors as being a leader of NJ 11th for Change, which ultimately lead to the employee — Ms. Saily Avelenda — having to face scrutiny, submit a letter to the CEO, and ultimately resigning. Congressman Frelinghuysen’s using his position to out constituents who disagree with him raises some ethical concerns.
• Chelsea Manning: The United States Army has announced that Chelsea Manning, a whistle-blower who released over 700,000 Army and State Department documents to WikiLeaks as Bradley Mannining in 2013, will be able to remain in the Army upon her release from prison this week; toward the end of his term, President Barack Obama commuted Manning’s sentence. It has been stated that Manning will return to the Army in the rank of Private, and will be allowed to move forward with her gender reassignment surgery; where she will be stated, and how long she will have in service given her pending appeal of court martial, have not yet been determined.

THE WORLD

• President Trump, The Middle East: President Donald Trump will embark upon his first foreign trip as President this week, heading to Riyadh on May 19th — where he will meet with President Abbas and members of the PLO, as well as various leaders from the Arab Gulf States, the Levant, and North Africa. Afterward, he will travel to Israel where he is planning to meet President Netanyahu and discuss the possible relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem; initially stating that he would undertake such without any doubts at the outset of his presidency, Secretary of State Tillerson has stated that the President is being more measured about his approach now. Tackling the Middle East and ensuring a peace deal between Israel and Palestine are some of President Trump’s greatest ambitions.
• Emmanuel Macron and France: Today marks the first full-day in office for new French President Emmanuel Macron. Ambitious, he has already unveiled his Prime Minister to be Edouard Phillipe — a member of the mainstream right — and has also taken his first foreign trip as President to Germany, embracing years of French tradition. Greeted by German PM Angela Merkel and a military honors ceremony in Berlin, President Macron plans to discuss strengthening and otherwise re-legitimizing the European Union with the leader.
• Tension between Turkey and Germany: In response to growing tensions between the two states, Turkey has barred German parliamentarians from visiting their soldiers at Bundeswehr Air Force Base in Incirlik, Turkey. The Air Force Base is used by Germany as the launching point to fulfill its NATO mission in Syria; in response to this issue, the second time such has happened in the past year, German PM Angela Merkel has stated that Germany is considering moving its base elsewhere, potentially to Jordan. The current bout of tension has occurred due to Germany’s recently barring Turkish leaders from addressing their expats in the nation and due to controversy over PM Erdogan’s referendum securing more executive powers in April — which Germany condemened on the same day, the 16th of the month.
• North Korea, Potentially Successful Missile Launch: This weekend, North Korea successfully launched a missile from its West Coast and into the sea of Japan, where it landed off of the coast of Russia. The KCNA claims that the missile went 2,111.5 Km (1,312 M) upward through the atmosphere, and traveled 787 Km, not breaking apart upon re-entry; these reports await full confirmation. World leaders condemned the launch, to include Russian President Vladimir Putin — who also stated that other nations should not move to “provoke” Pyongyang. Worries over the North’s launch include the fact that this could be the first step in the nation achieving an ICBM, and that it can otherwise reach mainland Japan or the US Base in Guam in using a different trajectory. While President Donald J. Trump has not ruled out combating the North’s operations through military force, it appears that the US’s leader is still open to talks with Pyongyang.
• Russia and the Malware Breach: On Monday, President Vladimir Putin of Russia stated that he blames the United States for the ransomware attack that struck critical institutions in 150 countries across the globe on Friday. In response to claims that Russia has been assisting or otherwise oversees the group responsible for the attack, Shadow Brokers — who termed the virus WannaCry and used it to demand bitcoin from their targets — Vladimir Putin stated that such would never have occurred if the US did not develop such codes, and pointed to a Microsoft statement on the US developing the software; ultimately, the Kremlin has denied involvement, pointing to attacks on their Law Enforcement Agencies as further proof. Global Markets appear relatively unaffected by the now mostly-contained hits.
• Africa, Ebola in the DRC: An outbreak of Ebola has occurred in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Bas-Uele region, primarily in the remote village of Aketi. This is the 7th outbreak of Ebola that the nation has had to face since 1976, and it is suspected that this one started with exposure to tainted meat — the most common cause of outbreaks prior to human-human transmission. Due to the remoteness of Aketi, the DRC’s prior experience in handling Ebola, and the availability of a vaccine from Gavi, it is expected that this outbreak will be well contained — though the WHO will continue to monitor the situation and update the international community accordingly.

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