‘Obi-dient’ Wave Scare!
The 2023 Presidential Electioneering in Nigeria.
Election circles come with hopes, expectations, and prospects of changing a non-performing political party/individuals or retaining a performing administration in office. It’s always exciting to hear politicians trade jabs and political stunts. Really, excitement or concerns depends on where your interest lies. The 2023 presidential electioneering in Nigeria came with a significant difference. The political firmament was filled with tension and high hopes of effecting a change of guard in the direction of the country. But what followed was a nightmare that threw right-thinking humans out of gear. It was a contest between progressive and reactionary forces — between democratic ethos and fascism.
Democracy is defined as a system of government by the whole population or all eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives. The concepts and names which originated in ancient Athens circa 508 BCE have gone through centuries of political experiment and modification leveraging on social and political dynamics of human behavior. From ancient Greek to post-monarchical experiments has emerged the template for modern democracies.
Modern representative democracies are attempts to bridge the gap between Hobbes’s depiction of the state of nature and Rousseau’s depiction of society as inevitably authoritarian through “social contracts” that enshrine the rights of citizens, curtail the power of the state, and ensure stability via the right to vote.
These ideals have continued to be tried and tested within the context of the Nigerian polity aptly described as a mere geographical expression by one of the architects of the Nigerian project, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, in his book, Path to Nigerian Freedom. Historically, the experiment has generated high-voltage tension among the diverse ethnic and religious configurations that serve as inputs into the project. Most tested and abused by politicians is the moderating provision — the right of citizens to vote. Election rigging has been with us from the dawn of political independence and has continued to retard honest efforts at moving the country forward.
The 2023 electioneering marked an unprecedented crescendo in election malpractices that stepped on the nerves of decent humans deeply interested in seeing Nigeria make progress and take its rightful place in the committee of civilized nations.
Beneath appearances of nation-building are clusters of profoundly reactionary elements/ethnic and religious bigots busy working against progress and improved standard of living of the people. These characters, ironically in the position to attract a large following of innocent compatriots, are the main stumbling blocks — creating roadblocks to project Nigeria-nation.
Preceding 2023 elections were seven-plus years of insensitive leadership, barefaced abuse of power, and mindless stealing of the commonwealth under a regime that promised to fight corruption.
Whereas the Nigerian political class would like the world, and especially the people of Nigeria to believe that Nigeria is a democracy because elections are conducted at intervals of four years, at the end of which the president, governors, and legislators at national and state levels emerge, we wish to suggest here that fascism and all its appurtenances, not democracy was the norm in Nigeria’s political firmament in the lead up to 2023 election of the president. In so doing, we hope to locate the phenomenal ‘Obi-dient’ wave in its proper historical context.
Terms, Theories, and Practice.
Let’s begin with the framework of our analysis and revisit our understanding of commonly used terms. What for instance is fascism? What is democracy? How do they play out in the Nigerian political space?
Fascism, defined by Merriam-Webster is
a far-right, authoritarian, ultranationalist political ideology and movement, characterized by a dictatorial leader, centralized autocracy, militarism, forcible suppression of opposition, belief in a natural social hierarchy, subordination of individual interests for the perceived good of the nation and race.
Nigeria at independence inherited the Westminster-model parliamentary system of government that recognized and accommodated the cultural and ethnic idiosyncrasies of the three major ethnic groups in the country, within a federal system. But barely five years into learning and adjusting to the nitty-gritty of self-rule, the Nigerian military truncated evolving democratic norms when they abandoned their traditional role of defending the people and dabbled into politics. Their injection of military dictatorship into the system had the effect of permanently upending democratic culture in the country.
The military incursion took the country six decades back to the foundational stage of nation-building. In the place of democracy was the surreptitious introduction of fascist elements of authoritarian, ultra-ethnic/religious toxin hidden in a military-engineered, unitary constitution — masquerading as a federal system of government. Periodic elections are no more than a set of arrangements and reconfigurations based on behind-the-scenes agreements of the super-elite class.
Fascism by nature stands in contrast to liberal democracies which support individual rights, competitive elections, and political dissent.
Studies have shown that extreme fascists tend to be revolutionary because they advocate the overthrow of existing systems of government, and the persecution of political opponents. However, when it advances their interests, they can be highly conservative in championing traditional values such as those relating to the role of women, social hierarchy, and obedience to authority. And although fascist leaders typically claim to support everyman, in reality, their regimes often align with powerful business interests.
Many characteristics of fascism have parallel manifestations in ‘political religiosity’ in Nigeria. Political religiosity or religion politics is when religion is deployed to exercise political control.
The practice is seen in both Islam and Christianity — the two dominant religions in Nigeria. In Islam, politics and religion are two sides of the same coin. It is appropriate in Islam for the Ummar to be teleguided and more often manipulated by the Ulama. The Sultan of Sokoto is not just a traditional monarch, but the head of an Islamic Caliphate. And although Christianity in Nigeria used to separate state from religion, and to minimize believers’ participation in ‘dirty’ politics, the government’s recent policy of favoring Muslims and one section of the country in dispensing state largess through juicy political appointments — despite clear constitutional provisions to the contrary, seems to have awakened Christians to take their destiny in their own hands politically.
Some of the features of fascism that continue to manifest in the resurgence of far-right movements across the globe — with parallels in Nigeria, include:
Extreme Nationalism:
Fascist leaders believe in the supremacy of certain groups of people based on such characteristics as race, religion, and ethnicity. For instance, Adolf Hitler and the Nazi Party advanced the idea of Aryan racial superiority over other ethnic nationalities. The most extreme example of ethnocentric nationalism was the Nazis’ state-sponsored mass murder of six million Jews. Though at a much lower scale, ethnocentric nationalism was the trigger of mass killings in the aftermath of 1966 military coups in Nigeria escalating into the civil war.
Unfortunately, some of the military officers who participated in the civil war and later assumed key roles in the post-war civilian administration of the country, do not appear to have learned useful lessons therefrom. For instance, the greater part of President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration, a retired general in the Nigerian Army, and former military head of state was overshadowed by the herdsmen-farmers clashes in which the President’s Fulani kinsmen enjoyed free access to high-caliber assault weapons with which farming communities in some parts of the country were brutalized, killed, and their farms destroyed while Law enforcement officers turned their heads in other directions, and the President kept mum.
When a Governor in one of the dastardly affected communities ran to the President seeking his intervention, President Buhari sent him back to go and make peace with the terrorists.
Cult of Personality:
Fascist regimes cultivate images of their leaders as great figures to be loved and admired often through mass media and propaganda. In Italy, Mussolini’s photographs hung on the walls of classrooms while his political party encouraged all good citizens to purchase a Mussolini-themed calendar each year. Mussolini prohibited journalists from reporting his age or health issues and often took photographs posing with a lion or riding a horse. Mussolini “the leader” took on a mythical status.
It is enough to say that the Nigerian situation has not yet allowed for that to happen.
Mass Mobilization and Suppression:
Authoritarian and fascist governments are anti-democratic, leaving little room for dissent, and strive to centralize power. While authoritarian governments want the population to remain passive and demobilized (as it’s often the case with Abuja under Abacha and Buhari), fascist regimes demand public participation in society through government-organized channels. Mussolini in Italy and Hitler in Germany, both drew massive crowds in rallies intended to stir up enthusiasm for the country, the party, and the leader.
Such is the tactic of far-right leaders like Putin in Russia, and the Trumpist MAGA movement in the United States. Indeed, citizens could come under suspicion for refusing to take part in such activities. In this regard, fascist regimes often exhibit totalitarian tendencies.
Some of our state governors have demonstrated the tendency to toe this path if given control over armed forces. The powers that be at the center have continued to resist the decentralization of power and resource control in Nigeria — the hallmark of true federalism.
The ‘Obi-dient’ Wave: Predisposing Factors:
‘Obi-dient wave’ is the term used to describe the unprecedented involvement of Nigerian youths in support of the candidacy of Peter Obi, the Labor Party candidate in the presidential election of February 25, 2023. Until the announcement of the Labor Party’s candidate to run for the president, Nigerian youths, apparently, were nonchalant and largely marginalized in the scheme of things relating to participation in the national political process. For close to six decades of the postcolonial era, the same bunch of political actors — in military uniform and out of it — had dominated the political landscape to the exclusion of young Nigerians.
But given the backdrop of general insecurity in the land; the ensuing comatose economy, the increasingly devastating unemployment situation, coupling the collapse of health, educational, and other public institutions, not to mention runaway inflation — all a far cry from their high expectations based on promises made at the inception of Buhari-APC administration — the Nigerian youths were awakened to the grim realities of a daunting present and a hopeless future.
Such were the catalysts that propelled them into what might be described as the struggle for their survival.
They saw Peter Obi as the man of the moment and the hope of a better future and country. Their massive response to him gives practical expression to their craving for visionary leadership.
Trajectory of the Rise of Fascism:
Without painting a dark and dreary picture of the Nigerian situation, it is instructive to learn from history and the experiences of other lands cognizant of parallels in our country.
A historian, Robert Paxton identifies milestones in the rise of fascism under Mussolini in Italy and Adolf Hitler in Germany in terms of:
Disillusionment: A Fallout of the First World War.
Mussolini and Hitler rose to prominence in the aftermath of World War 1, capitalizing on the political and economic fallout of the Great War and general dissatisfaction with their countries’ leaders. Hitler pointed to the harsh and humiliating terms of the Treaty of Versailles, which forced Germany to accept blame for the conflict, give up its European overseas colonies and 13 percent of its European territory, limit the size of its army and navy, and pay reparations (financial damages) to the victorious Allies. He would gain followers by promising to tear up the Treaty of Versailles and restore the country’s honor.
Meanwhile, the economic crisis that followed further eroded public confidence in the existing establishment. In the immediate aftermath of the war, Germany suffered hyperinflation — a situation in which prices skyrocketed so quickly that Germany’s currency lost much of its value — and Italy experienced a two-year period of mass strikes and factory shutdowns - with millions unemployed.
High levels of unemployment after World War 1 discredited the government, clearing the way for leaders to pitch fascism as an alternative to the status quo.
Fascist leaders capitalized on popular disillusionment by creating their own political parties to challenge the ruling establishment through the ballot box and violence in the streets. In 1919, Mussolini created Italy’s Fascist Party, which supported Italian nationalism and opposed socialism. The group militarized politics by attracting fervent followers — including many returning World War 1 veterans — who organized armed militias known as “Blackshirts” as per their uniforms and clashed with Italian socialists in the streets.
Germany’s Nazi Party, (originally founded in 1920 as a National Socialist German Workers’ Party) also emerged in the aftermath of the war. With many Germans shocked by the country’s defeat in WW I, the Nazis push a narrative that argued Germany could have won the war if not for unrest at home. This myth falsely accused Jewish people and left-wing activists of stabbing the country’s war efforts in the back and blamed Germany’s new democratic government for giving up on the conflict.
Propelled by this vision, the Nazis went from winning 3 percent of the vote in the 1928 parliamentary elections to 44 percent in 1933. They also received support from their own paramilitary wing — the “Brownshirts” — who like the Italian “Blackshirts” clashed with the party’s rivals.
The Next Level: Turning ‘Obi-dient Wave’ into a Movement.
The retrogressive fascist elements are having a field day on the global stage, and are currently calling the shot in Nigeria. They will continue to resist meaningful change until progressive forces across regional, religious, and ethnic spectrums are able to coalesce and consign them into the backwater of national development. The ‘Obi-dient’ phenomenon has made its mark on Nigeria’s electoral process; It is up to the youths and civil society to sustain the momentum and escalate to an irreversible national movement.
