In Iowa, Cruz’s well-oiled machine proves superior to Trump’s unorthodoxy
Donald Trump has reveled in the role of anti-establishment crusader throughout his presidential campaign. When focus groups are asked about the Republican party, they say “maybe it’s time to blow it up.” When they’re asked about Trump, they say that he “tells it like it is.” He doesn’t have any legitimate political experience, he doesn’t accept money from superPACs, and sometimes, he doesn’t even show up at debates. If you’re hoping for tame pamphlets and door-knocking, the Trump campaign is not the place to look. However, that same untraditional, disorganized means of campaigning which has paid off so well thus far for Trump, appears to have become somewhat exposed in Iowa this Monday.
Concerned by poll numbers which saw Trump creep ahead of Senator Ted Cruz in Iowa this past week, the Cruz campaign unleashed a full-fledged offensive leading up to the nation’s first caucus. Cruz commercials went up, Cruz mailers went up, and Fox News host Glenn Beck campaigned for him. On Sunday, Iowa Sec. of State Paul Tate accused Cruz of misrepresenting the state office after it was revealed that his campaign had mailed out “Voter Violation” pamphlets which stated “You are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area.”
Despite claims of outsidership and reports of unpopularity, the former Texas Senator has a stable funding base and a well-oiled campaign, and it showed in his strong ground game during the lead up to the Iowa Caucus. Meanwhile, Trump did not take that time to self-promote nearly as aggressively. He basked in his high poll numbers and held his typically raucous speaking events, but, as has been the case throughout his run, Trump mostly refrained from ordinary campaigning methods. And that’s why he lost.
The numbers back this. The CBS News entrance/exit poll data shows that 16% of caucus voters decided who to support the day of the caucus. 45% decided within a week of the vote, and 65% decided within the month. Cruz approximately doubled-up Trump amongst those who decided “in the last week” and “this month,” and beat him 22%-15% amongst those who decided “just today.” In a race Trump lost by only 3.3% of votes, getting beaten so thoroughly by Cruz with voters who decide at the last minute, and are more likely to be swayed by pre-caucus blitzkriegs of campaign interaction and literature, was significant.
What this means is that the Trump campaign does not defy the laws of politics, at least not as much as previously thought. His controversial speaking regarding immigrants and his bombastic events with University of Iowa football players can carry him farther than expected, but probably not far enough. He earns votes by being anti-establishment, but the longer he refuses to play by the rules — knocking on doors, sending out mail, advertising — the longer the Cruz campaign will possess a vital advantage.
