The Sanders-Trump Voter Base
Concord, NH — The word is “rebellion.” This election is, by nature, a rebellion. Whether you call the election anti-establishment, a political revolution, or a rejection of career politicians, the conclusion is clear — rebellion is everywhere, and has deeply infiltrated both sides of the field.
A group whose mission it is to reduce the influence of money in politics calls itself NH Rebellion. Although they advertise as a non-partisan group, its members are almost unanimous in their support for Bernie Sanders. On the other hand, a Donald J. Trump staffer rails against a “republican leadership structure that needs changing.”
The movement has been attributed to widespread voter anger. But it’s not just that. Anger is a transient feeling, but this is not. This election’s intrigue is a symptom of a much broader trend — in the recent past, an increasing number of voters are feeling neglected and even alienated by establishment party platforms.
A recent gallup poll shows that the percentage of Americans identifying as independent is at 42%. That’s the highest it has been since Gallup started collecting this data. The really interesting part, though, is that Trump and Bernie — both of them — seem to be capturing these voters, and actually getting them to vote. New Hampshire’s primaries are structured so that independents can vote on primary day for the party of their choice, and a senior Trump official said that this was actually an advantage to the campaign. Bernie, too, given his own history as an independent, and his past as a representative from the most conservative district of Vermont, also does surprisingly well among these disillusioned independents.
But who are these people? They tend to be working and middle class people who are alienated by both the fiscally conservative policies of the Republican party, including free trade and entitlement cuts, but also alienated by the socially liberal and economically centrist Democratic party. Though they may seem to be on opposite sides of the political spectrum, both Trump and Bernie are appealing to this voter.
A New Hampshire legislator and Trump supporter stressed that Trump’s low tax policies would help middle class families “put food on the table and take more vacations” without the needless “feel good” legislation democrats are proposing. Trump further stresses benefits to the middle class by speaking adamantly about preserving social security and “taking care of everybody” in regards to healthcare. He is also a heavy gun rights proponent, and not by accident — this is an issue that matters most to the middle and working class voter he is courting.
Bernie, on the other side, takes a different approach to appealing to a similar group. He promises legislation expanding social security, implementing universal healthcare (“Medicare for All”), and reworking campaign finance laws. Interestingly, too, he is weaker on gun laws than most other democrats. All of these efforts are attempts to advance the middle class voter economically and politically.
Of course, there are some very fundamental differences between the two candidates’ voter bases. The starkest difference is social liberalism — and by extension, Sanders’s notably very young supporters. While Trump and Bernie are both assembling a powerful middle and working class coalition, the question remains — can these voters ever form a powerful and cohesive coalition?
I think yes — consider this. A recent Gallup poll shows that only 5% of Americans think that “moral decline,” which is a sort of catch-all for controversial social issues, is the most important issue facing the nation. Compare that to the 16% who say the government itself is the most significant issue, 0r the 21% who cite either the economy or jobs. Trump and Bernie are forming a coalition around these issues, and so yes, there is potential for these voters to form a middle class “bloc.” At the end of the day, coalitions form around the issues people care about.
How might these voters come together? That’s a story for another day.
