What Trump’s Performance in Iowa Could Mean for his Campaign
Despite his lead in Des Moines Register polls with 28% approval over Ted Cruz’s 23% and Marco Rubio’s 15%, Donald Trump could not get enough supporters to win the Iowa caucus. Now that Trump has lost the caucus, despite previously being far ahead in the polls, people are starting to talk about his campaign finally winding down. As wonderful as that sounds, it may be a bit too early to dismiss him. After all, the Iowa caucus winner in the last two presidential elections did not win the party nomination.
The day after the caucus, Trump tweeted “Because I was told I could not do well in Iowa, I spent very little there — a fraction of Cruz & Rubio. Came in a strong second. Great honor.” This may sound like a pitiful attempt to downplay his own defeat, but there may be some truth behind his words. Global Citizen calculated the amount of money each republican candidate spent per vote in Iowa. Jeb Bush spent the most money per vote ($2,800) and got the fewest votes (5,238). Marco Rubio, who came in a very close third behind Trump, spent $273 per vote. Ted Cruz spent $116 on each of his 51,666 votes. Although Trump got second place, he only spent $73 per vote.
This could cast some doubt on the idea that Rubio is now set up to beat Trump, since he spent a little over three times the amount of money Trump did per vote, and just barely managed to get the same number of delegates as Trump.
However, it’s not clear if Trump can afford this kind of loss again. Much of his support could be attributed to people jumping on the Trump bandwagon. His loss in Iowa makes the bandwagon look a lot less crowded. Now, people who have been waiting for Trump’s campaign to wind down have a tangible failure to attribute to him. After the Iowa caucus, he became the face of Loser.com, which will put a dent in his public image, to say the least.
After falling victim to one of his own favorite insults, Trump became more humble on Twitter and in interviews. Even before the Iowa caucus, he admitted that “you have to be a little nervous” on Good Morning America. He said “I’m more humble than people think,” on Face the Nation. This humility and graciousness was apparently short-lived, since Trump is now tweeting accusations that Ted Cruz committed fraud.
The caucus results could mean either of two things. Trump’s success could be coming to an end, because he didn’t spend enough time and money in Iowa and has now lost his momentum and stellar track record in the polls. It could also mean that Trump’s campaign is still strong, because he was more successful there compared to other candidates in proportion to the amount of money and time he spent there.
There was an unusually high turnout at this year’s Iowa caucus, and most of those who were not regular caucus goers came out to support Trump. In fact, according to The Wall Street Journal’s Iowa entrance polls, 33% of participants who were first-time caucus goers supported Trump, which was the highest percentage of support that any candidate had from that group. Cruz had the highest percentage of caucus goers who had attended a caucus before. If Trump can bring out people who are not typically active participants in Iowa, that’s a good sign for his campaign in the rest of the country.
Trump also currently has a stronger lead in New Hampshire than he did among Iowans leading up to the caucus. According to USA Today’s polls, he is currently leading with 33% in New Hampshire, while his runner-up, Cruz, has 11.7%, and Rubio is tied with John Kasich at 10.7%. Trump maintains an even bigger lead nationally at 35.8%. Unless there is another, more dramatic contrast between the results and the polls, Trump is still facing pretty good odds in New Hampshire.
It is still possible, however, that voters will change their minds within the next few days. The Iowa entrance polls from The Wall Street Journal, the later someone made their decision on who to caucus for, the less likely they were to support Trump. Those who decided earlier than a month before the caucus mainly supported Trump, while those who decided within the last few days before the caucus had the smallest number of Trump supporters. This could happen in New Hampshire, for all we know.
