Whether He Likes It or Not, Marco Rubio Has Become the Establishment Candidate
It was Texas Senator Ted Cruz who was victorious in the first Republican nomination contest of the 2016 White House race, but there were other big winners in Iowa on Monday night: Florida Senator Marco Rubio and the Republican establishment.
For months, Cruz and fellow Republican candidate Donald Trump’s brand of angry, scorched-earth, insurgent politics defined the race for the Republican presidential nomination, while more moderate candidates tussled with themselves to try to mount a challenge.
The hope among Republican party leaders has long been for a champion to emerge. And on Monday, that person was Rubio, who finished a hair behind Trump and only a few points behind Cruz.
When Rubio took the stage in a hotel ballroom to give his “concession” speech, he gave what truly amounted to a victory speech.
“This is the moment they said would never happen,” the first-term senator said. “For months, they told us we had no chance.”
With Senator Rubio’s success in the Hawkeye state, the fight for the nomination has unmistakably entered a new phase.
“We now have a three-way race,” said Craig Robinson, the former political director of the Iowa Republican Party.
Rubio’s night shocked Iowa political observers like Robinson, who had predicted Rubio would wind up far behind Trump and Cruz, with perhaps around 15–18 percent of the vote. Rubio finished with 23 percent.
Rubio’s performance now strengthens his argument that supporters of other moderate, establishment candidates such as former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Ohio governor John Kasich should throw their support, and their money, behind him.
According to election returns, Rubio swamped both Cruz and Trump in Iowa’s urban areas — Des Moines, Iowa City, Davenport — suggesting that he could prosper when the Republican race progresses to denser, more populated states such as Florida and Ohio. He has also received the endorsements of Representative Trey Gowdy, and Senator Tim Scott, two of South Carolina’s most prominent lawmakers. The endorsements signal where the the Republican party’s establishment is leaning, and also brighten Senator Rubio’s prospects in South Carolina heading toward the state’s primary later this month.
Over the next 6 months, Marco Rubio will be battling it out with the non-establishment, a group he himself has said he is a part of. Whether he embraces it or not, he is now part of the establishment, or is at least associated with it. In order to take down his competitors, he is going to have to adapt some of his stances to appeal to the establishment-portion of his party.
There is a difference between an establishment candidate and a candidate whom establishment voters can happily support. Marco Rubio is the latter. Which may just be enough.
