Will The Evangelical Vote be Enough to Carry Cruz to the White House?
Cruz’s campaign has mainly focused on securing conservative votes — and so far it has worked.
By solidifying the Christian Evangelical vote in Iowa, Cruz has climbed in the polls and has become the Iowa frontrunner. If he wins Iowa, he can carry that momentum into New Hampshire and South Carolina and could eventually obtain the nomination.
His strategy has been to push a conservative agenda to gain conservative votes. He opposes birthright citizenship and amnesty, has fought hard to defund Planned Parenthood, claims he will repeal Obamacare, and defends religious liberties.
Although this strategy may help him during the primaries, it will put him at a disadvantage if he wins the nomination.
To win the General Election, the nominee must obtain some independent and moderate votes. Cruz ignores this fact and instead attributes past Republican losses in the General Election to the GOP nominating moderate Republicans.
Unlike most nominees, who move to the center after winning the nomination, Cruz, if he wins, has vowed to remain a true conservative by not shifting left.
To win both the nomination and the presidency Cruz says he will “awaken and energize the body Christ.”
According to Cruz and his strategists, there were four million conservative voters who supposedly did not vote during the election of 2012. Cruz claims if he conducts effective outreach, he can attain those voters.
Exit polls do not support the notion that conservatives were noticeably missing. They instead show that 35 percent of voters identified as conservatives, which is the highest since exit polls began asking about voters political leanings.
There are roughly 5% more Democrats than Republicans, so the GOP needs the majority of independent voters to win the National Election.
His plan to unite conservative evangelical voters, has in turn alienated moderates and independents. Only 13%-16% of independents have a favorable view of Cruz while only 6%-7% of moderates have a favorable view of Cruz. Around 47% of moderates claim they would never vote for Cruz.
Although Cruz has a chance at winning his party’s nomination, the road to the White House will be more difficult. He may be able to unite the evangelicals, but he will have difficulty uniting the party as whole. If the GOP wants a fair shot at winning the presidency, they should think twice before nominating Cruz.
