Africa could face a severe food crisis, but it does not have to
Agricultural systems need to change and, in some cases, retrace back
About this series: This is the second of a three article series where we distil the voluminous IPCC special reports on Land and Ocean into specific, action-oriented and jargon-free messages
The spectre of a food crisis is looming over small holder farmers, pastoralists, and the urban poor in Africa. There are many things that African community organizations and businesses can do to stave off this disastrous future. The IPCC Special Reports on Land and Ocean, published as recently in 2020 and 2019 respectively, provide clear suggestions on what needs to be done.
The increasing amount of carbon dioxide in the air should increase the rate of photosynthesis and growth of plants. The problem is that crops may not be able to take advantage of this opportunity because ground water levels may decrease. The higher amounts of carbon dioxide in the air could also lower the content of zinc and other nutrients in food crops. The rising temperatures would also reduce yields. Yields of staple crops such as maize, wheat, sorghum, cassava and fruit crops, such as mangoes, have already decreased. In addition, short lived climate pollutants (such as ozone and methane) also have a negative effect on yields.
Other aspects of climate change such as unpredictable rainfall, extreme weather events, rising and acidifying seas contribute to this gloomy prognosis. In late 2015 and early 2016 a strong El Nino led to drought and crop failure in Ethiopia. More than 10 million people required food aid. Such events will likely become more common. The weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deep waters which start in the North Atlantic and carry enormous amounts of heat northwards the two hemispheres will likely lead to drought in the Sahel and flooding in South Africa. The increasing acidity and lower oxygen content in ocean waters will reduce the catch of fish along the coast.
Pests, pollinating agents and weeds are likely to change their range, habitats and biology to cause losses to food crops. Paradoxically, food aid that can follow disasters can introduce invasive species. For example, Parthenium might have been introduced with relief aid during the droughts of the early 1980s and rapidly spread all across Tigray. It has reduced vegetation in national parks, led to substantial decline of sorghum yields and has caused respiratory and skin diseases in both humans and livestock.
Livestock is likely to be equally impacted. Rising temperature affects all the critical factors of livestock production: water availability and animal health and reproduction. Like pests and weeds, pathogens that cause livestock diseases will be impacted by increases in temperature and rainfall variation. Rangelands can become sparser.
The local degradation of the environment
The damage being done locally to environments is contributing to the spectre of food crisis as much as global climate change. Human activities — agricultural practices, deforestation, overgrazing — are already degrading lands and forests across Africa. The soil fertility is decreasing. Arid and semi-arid land (Africa has 15.8 million square kilometres) are being turned into deserts. One major culprit is the use of charcoal for cooking. Charcoal (and other types of wood fuels) also contribute to about 2% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. The degradation of cultivable lands (and existing arid lands being turned into deserts) is likely to increase due to wind and water erosion arising from climate change.
In coastal areas the destruction of mangrove forests is leading to frequent flooding and erosion. This in turn makes the soils and the ground water saline. As climate change effects intensify the loss of the natural barriers such as mangroves and coral reefs will expose coastal communities to greater risks.
The global effort to mitigate climate change may well exaggerate the food crisis situation in Africa. The main worry is that land is likely to be diverted away from the purposes of growing food crops. One potential use is afforestation to capture and “sink” carbon. The other would be to grow biofuels. Not only could land be lost from traditional agricultural activities but the large scale intensive commercial use of land with over use of fertilizers and water is likely to degrade land further.
There are options still at hand
Not all is lost however. Africa has 60% of the global uncultivated arable land and can — with adequate measures — grow food to feed its growing population. Apart from bringing more land under cultivation, there is opportunity to increase yields. Yields can be improved with new types of seeds and plant varieties. Drought and flood resistant seeds and plants have to be introduced. This should be done sustainably without causing further land degradation or overusing resources.
To follow the path of sustainable intensification, agricultural systems will have to change. First, agro-ecology practices will have to be widely adapted. Agro-ecology practices mean returning traditional agricultural practices where farmers diversify their crops and take advantage of local genetic diversity. It also involves managing the soil organic matter and recycling of the biomass. Farmers can also practice agroforestry and grow trees and shrubs along with crops. There are several advantages of this ecology based approach. Growing multiple crops protects farmers against catastrophic loss. It improves the soil quality. Conserving the organic matter in the soil and growing trees can also reduce global warming by capturing the carbon in the air. If practiced by millions of farmers the cumulative effect can be meaningful. Even the hottest day is more bearable in a house with a kitchen garden surrounded by trees.
Agro-ecological approaches indicate that farmers should not depend on only one crop or agriculture alone. Livestock and aquaculture in ponds can also help small holder farmers have greater resilience against reduced agricultural yields. The manure from livestock can also be used in the farms. Of course the methane from the animals can also cause global warming. However, feed additives can address the problem and also improve the health of animals.
Secondly, agricultural systems need to become more climate smart. Tackling climate change and food security crises together will mean changes in two ways. First, efficiencies will have to be increased. This will involve the use of precision methods to optimally use inputs such as water and (organic) fertilizer as well as reduction of post-harvest losses. Conserving water is particularly important. This can be done by proper storage and reducing use (either by modifying agricultural practices or by technologies such as drip irrigation). Second, conventional inputs such as fertilisers and pesticides will have to be substituted by green varieties. Crops can also be substituted. Perennial crops that reduce the need for soil disturbance can be used instead of annual crops. Farmers can also consider growing premium varieties that fetch better prices and they save the additional income for the inevitable disaster year.
Combining agro-ecological and climate smart approaches allows farmers to use both traditional knowledge and new technologies. Among new technologies, renewable energy is particularly important. Agricultural waste can be used to produce biomass briquettes and biodiesel. This adds efficiency to farm income and helps in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. Farmers substituting petrol and diesel at the farm with renewable energy create similar benefits. Energy efficient small cold storage systems can help store and process produce. Sensors and automation allows the precise application of inputs. However, not all of this need to be high-tech. Fertiliser can be applied automatically or it can be measured out in a cap.
In coastal areas African farmers must start growing salt tolerant plants and consider switching to aquaculture. Across the coast, communities must vigorously protect and restore ecosystems to adapt to climate change. Most African nations will not have the money to build barriers to keep the rising sea out. They will need to ensure that coral reefs, mangrove forests and sea wood meadows are grown to sufficient heights and density to do so. As such, coastal pollution, deforestation and unplanned development must stop as soon as possible. The local ecosystems will also protect fishing communities, promote sustainable tourism and supply food and medicines. Equally importantly they can absorb and store carbon, thereby mitigating global climate change.
Africa is urbanizing fast and thus another way of ensuring food security is urban agriculture, such as growing food on the roofs of buildings. This is important to keep rising food prices from affecting the security and calorie intake of the urban poor. Urban agriculture can also reduce the urban heat island effect, and slow down and absorb rainwater to prevent flooding. Food grown in urban areas also slows down methane emissions when recycled organic waste and wastewater is used for fertilisation and irrigation. Carbon emissions from transporting food from rural to urban areas are avoided.
Africa already has a precedence in building a continent wide project to restore degraded land and support local communities to sustainably use forests and rangelands. Since 2010, the African Union has been managing the Great Green Wall project covering 7775 kilometres from Senegal on the Atlantic Coast to Eritrea on the Red Sea Coast. Across the way, the wall with a width of 15 kilometres will pass through Djibouti, Ethiopia, Sudan, Chad, Niger, Nigeria, Mali, Burkina Faso and Mauritania. But private organizations have to get involved in a collaborative effort. Community organizations, businesses and entrepreneurs need to work together to help Africa transition to a food secure future even as the climate change looms large. To build a secure future, Africa needs technology and capital. But, more importantly, it needs to build on local knowledge by involving communities, women and young people to chart out a meaningful future.
This article is based on the IPCC Special Reports on Land & Ocean and is aimed at providing to actionable insights to the business and community organizations. This is the second of a three part series. The first is on the vulnerable island states. The third is on what ASEAN nations should be doing.
