Europe, America, and the Putin Problem: The Cost of Diplomacy in an Unstable World

Photo by Saketh on Unsplash

The world has seen this movie before: a Western leader steps forward, determined to negotiate peace with Vladimir Putin, only to find themselves outmaneuvered, deceived, and left with a deal that serves Moscow’s interests far more than their own. From Georgia in 2008 to Ukraine today, the story remains largely unchanged — except for the players. Now, it’s America taking center stage under the erratic leadership of Donald Trump, and Europe finds itself scrambling to respond.

For Europeans, Trump’s attempt to forge a deal with Putin brings an unsettling sense of déjà vu. Those who have tried before — Nicolas Sarkozy in 2008 and Angela Merkel and François Hollande in 2014 — know how these negotiations tend to end. In the case of Georgia, Sarkozy secured a ceasefire after Russia’s invasion, but the agreement merely cemented Moscow’s control over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia never fully recovered, shackled by Russian influence and unable to function democratically. Ukraine’s history tells a similar tale. After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014 and sent troops into the Donbas, European diplomats painstakingly crafted the Minsk agreements to halt the fighting. But Putin had no intention of honoring the ceasefire. He dragged out negotiations while his forces gained ground and intimidated Ukraine’s president…