The 12 states of Federal Britain

Is there a way to help people in Scotland feel more affinity with parts of England? How can we create a renaissance of the Northern Cities?

Devolution and Scottish Neverendum are two sides of the same coin. People malign the failure to deliver the Northern Powerhouse, and worry about the pressure Sturgeon is placing on the Union, whilst we all ignore the Midlothian Question. How do we keep the UK together?

The sentiment from most of my Scottish friends who voted “Yes” first time round is that they no longer feel that Scotland is like the rest of the UK. It is that which caused 45% of Scots to vote the way they did. They feel so different now that they have their own parliament, and resulting divergent policies, that leaving seems to be the next logical step.

This sentiment makes perfect sense — the PR process in the Scottish Parliament and the fact that MSPs are different from MPs means that the representation in their parliament makes them look very different to rUK. On top of this the vagaries of the Commons FPTP process mean that even though 17% of Scots voted Tory at the last election, they only got 1/59 Tory MPs — and they are left feeling like they are very different to the rest of us. When in fact they aren’t that different at all.

What the Scottish Parliament has done though is given Scotland a greater sense of purpose and drive. Something that the regions of England sadly lack. Solving the Midlothian Question by giving England a parliament will not solve the problem of devolving power to the regions to invigorate growth, it will also lead to England having 83.9% of the vote, and the potential of a English parliament with a Tory leader being quite powerful, but potentially in power at the same time as a Labour executive and PM?

Devolution to the regions in a more radical way could solve all these problems in one step, as I argue in this article could lead to lots of positives — it would allow for this voting clump to be broken up producing ones of a similar size to the other 3 nations in the union. It would be the best chance of a renaissance of Northern cities.

More importantly though, it would allow Scotland to feel more similar. If their process of governance had parallels in other states in a federal Britain they might not feel so different. If the could develop alliances with North England this would really allow them to feel more similar to the rest of us.

You may argue that they should already feel some affinity with the Welsh and Northern Irish as they have Assemblies. However, their name belies entirely the problem — they are not parliaments. This contributes to making Scotland distinct, and it is in that distinctness that they seek separation. The same argument can be applied to the London Assembly. It does not feel part of a coherent larger process of governance.

We need elevate assemblies to parliaments, create new ones for the regions of England and make them all equal parts of a larger process of government. An important part of doing this is to address the fragmentation of representation. Why are MSPs not MPs? How can Scotland’s first minister not be a Wesminster MP? No wonder they don’t feel part of the Union. This is not sustainable. I don’t think it is odd that the three most vocal independence campaigners (Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf) leading in to the Scottish referendum were all MSPs, but not MPs. Sturgeon, still is not. Being an MP in any state in a Federal Britain needs to mean you can come to Westminster and participate in the national parts of government, just like being a Congressman in the US federal system.

The result would be a 12 state federal Britain — 3 nations (Wales, Scotland and North Ireland), and 9 for regions of England. Each state would have a parliament, with election processes being the same. All MPs in those parliaments being able to come to the national parliament in Westminster to participate in national votes on a handful of national matters. Each parliament would elect a first minister, these would replace the existing first ministers and the Major of London. If you think in this way it solves this whole debate of northern cities needing Majors, what these regions actually need are first ministers.

If we take the results of the 2010 election what would a 12 state federal Britain look like? Which political party would control each of these states?

The table is sorted by strength of majority from strong Labour at the top through to strong Tory at the bottom. The main concern over this suggestion from the 3 nations is likely to be that it will dilute the strength of their position. The reality though is that representation in terms of MPs will remain unchanged. So their voting power will not change. In reality it will actually strengthen their position. In creating votes at a state level they will actually be in a position to form alliances with other states that think like them. This net result being to dilute the dominance of the South of England, as Scotland and Wales will be able to form pacts with states in the North of England — hopefully leading to them feeling like their outlook carries more weight at a national level.

There are two very interesting observations to make:

1. Scotland is not the most left wing part of the country. The North East is actually a lot more left wing.
2. Greater London is not this ultra right wing camp that all Scots believe it to be. Despite the national 2010 swing to the Tories it kept its Labour majority. Londoners actually have more in common with the North of England and Scotland than they do with the rest of the South East.

I guarantee that this would surprise most Scots.

Creating a federal union of 12 states with an integrated political process of local and national representation will allow people to find more kinship with other parts of the union. Further, having the same election processes for each would allow for the representation to feel more legitimately part of a larger process that applies to all parts of the UK. So no one state will ever be left thinking that it is so different it needs to leave. We have to re-integrate the Scottish Parliament into the Westminster process, without doing so they will simply feel more and more different and eventually leave.