Don’t Believe The Hype: Coding Boot Camps Are Just Getting Started
Several recent reports have concluded that the coding boot camp industry has already peaked. As evidence, these reports cite the closing of two early players in the industry and a recent round of layoffs at another established school. Any experienced economic analyst, however, will tell you that a few closures and layoffs are not equivalent to a major industry shakeout. You have to understand the fundamental dynamics driving the industry.
Given how quickly the coding boot camp industry has grown since the beginning of the decade, what we have witnessed recently is more likely a necessary and even overdue market correction. According to Course Report, the coding boot camp industry has experienced 954% growth over the past five years. By any account, this constitutes rapid growth, and if anything, it is surprising that the recent market correction did not come sooner. But that’s not the real story here.
Insatiable Demand for Technical and Design Talent
Marc Andreessen was prescient when he declared that “software is eating the world”. The market demand for software development and design talent has multiplied over the last 30 years, which will drive growth in any educational programs that effectively fill that skills gap. Specifically, growth in coding boot camps will come mostly from online coding boot camps that serve a demographic of working adults for whom in-person boot camps and on-campus college degrees remain impractical and/or prohibitively expensive.
The coding boot camps that stumbled earlier this year shared one common attribute: They were both intensive in-person, on-premise programs. While there will no doubt continue to be demand for an in-person, classroom-based format, there are two reasons why continued high growth of on-premise coding boot camps will be challenged.
1. On-Premise Programs Appeal To A Smaller Market
On-premise coding boot camps compete for a relatively small demographic of potential students: those who have the luxury to go without income for three to six months, pay $12,000 to $17,000 in tuition, and depending on their current location, move to a urban center, where most coding academies are based. This is clearly a small slice of the public. For most working adults and/or people with family commitments, and anyone else who doesn’t have the ability to attend an on-premise program, this model was never a viable option.
As the CEO of Bloc, the first and largest online-only coding boot camp, I have had the opportunity to get to know these folks. They span different ages, backgrounds, and genders, and live in cities and towns scattered across the nation. What they share in common is a desire to acquire in-demand tech skills without quitting their current job, subjugating family responsibilities, or relocating or commuting to a physical campus.
While some coding schools, like Bloc, have always operated online, some on-premise incumbents have responded to oversaturation and slower growth with forays into quickly-assembled online offerings. New entrants have also joined the fray to innovate with online programs, but the ability to reach a broader market isn’t the only reason for more focus on online models.
2. ROI is King
The very low barriers to entry for on-premise coding boot camps has created urgency around the challenge of finding a sustainable model to support growth in a competitive market.
Online models with lower operating costs have a considerable advantage here. With no physical facilities to maintain, online coding boot camp programs can share massive cost-efficiencies with students via lower tuition, while concurrently offering their students a more flexible part-time training schedule so they can keep their day job and “earn while they learn”. Combined, these factors significantly lower the combined financial burden of skills training for online students, improve the return-on-investment (ROI) calculation, and make the training they need much more accessible.
But even a more modest financial investment in online coding and design boot camps must deliver ROI in the form of higher graduate earning power, which begs the question of efficacy. As I’ve said for years, nothing says that online programs works like a very long list of graduates now working as developers and designers in the field. As more time-strapped, budget-conscious working adults discover how effective online models can be, the online boot camp market will expand to match the scale of the large market opportunity it is well-suited to address.
So remain skeptical of breathlessly dire forecasts for all coding boot camps. The macro-level demand for coding and design boot camp grads remains prodigious, and the future is bright for models that can increase access and ROI for a massive segment of prospective students who cannot put their life on hold to go sit in a classroom again.
