Big Trouble in Little Korea
“THADDing” Up Recent Developments in the Hermit Kingdom
“You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take.”
Those are the famous words of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky. One world leader seems to have taken those words to heart: North Korean dictator and Dennis Rodman fanboy Kim Jong-un.
Kim Jong-un Tests More Ballistic Missiles
Early this month on 6 March, the reclusive North Korean regime launched and tested even more ballistic missiles — this time firing four missiles that landed safely into the Sea of Japan.
This isn’t a cause for concern; North Korea uses dummy warheads and the chances of hitting a ship are small. The missiles usually break up on contact with the water and sink to the bottom of the ocean. They also use up practically all of their fuel before splashing down, so the environmental risk is minimal. North Korea’s neighbors, as well the US, often try to scavenge and analyze the fragments and remnants of the missiles that they do manage to recover.
Background
This event follows the test launch of a ballistic missile in mid-February, which was widely interpreted as a test of the nascent Trump Administration. This is not the first time the North Korean regime has tested US presidents immediately upon their arrival in office; they infamously conducted a second nuclear test in the first months of the Obama presidency.
March 6th’s tests were a response to the joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea on the Korean Peninsula. These exercises, meant to demonstrate the strength of the alliance between the two countries, have taken place every year for the past four decades and last two months. Chinese officials have proposed that the US and South Korea suspend these drills in exchange for North Korea suspending its controversial and beleaguered nuclear program.
Sunday, March 5th: North Korean Ambassador Expelled from Malaysia
North Korea’s ambassador Kang Chol was given 48 hours to leave the country following a freeze of diplomatic relations between North Korea and Malaysia. This was due to the suspected assassination of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s estranged half brother, Kim Jong-nam, at an airport in Malaysia on 13 February.
Monday, March 6th: U.S Begins Deployment of Anti-Missile Shield in South Korea
The United States began its THADD anti-missile system deployment in South Korea just hours after the North’s missile launches in what American officials have described as purely a coincidence (since it had been in the works for months).
THADD, which stands for “Terminal High Altitude Area Defense,” is a system that detects missile launches, targets missiles in their terminal stage, and subsequently, shoots them down. While THADD is intended to protect the region from North Korean missiles, the Chinese government is vehemently opposed to the system due to fears that it could be used against its own projectiles in the event of war with the United States.
Tuesday, March 7th: North Korea Bans Malaysian Citizens from Leaving
In the next installment of a strange and intriguing diplomatic row between the two countries, the North Korean government announced that it was barring Malaysian citizens present in the country from leaving. Malaysian officials responded by reciprocating the ban, and will not be allowing the thousand or so North Korean citizens within its borders to return home.
The assassination remained under investigation for weeks and Mr. Kim’s body remained in Malaysian custody, which infuriated the North Korean government. Malaysia had refused to return the body until DNA testing and a full investigation were completed.
Wednesday, March 15th: Kim Jong-nam’s Identity Confirmed
A day later, video emerged on 8 March of a person claiming to be the son of the slain Kim Jong-nam, saying that his father had been murdered days ago and that he, his mother, and his sister were laying low for their safety. Then, a week later on 15 March, Malaysian authorities definitively confirmed through DNA testing that the man murdered in Kuala Lumpur was, in fact, Kim Jong-nam.
Friday, March 17th: Secretary Tillerson Ends “Strategic Patience” Policy
In a reversal of Obama administration policy, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announced on 17 March, during his first trip to Asia, that the United States’ policy of “strategic patience” towards North Korea was over. Tillerson went on to say that military action was on the table were the North Koreans to provoke the United States and its regional allies, or if its weapons program reached a level that U.S. officials viewed as requiring a response.
For his part, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted later that day that North Korea had been “behaving very badly” and accused the Chinese government of doing little to help, an ironic accusation considering the Chinese government suspended its imports of coal from North Korea back in mid-February. China responded to these allegations and Secretary Tillerson’s remarks by reaffirming their commitment to finding a peaceful settlement through diplomatic means.
Sunday, March 19th: Pyongyang Continues To Push The Envelope
Seemingly undeterred by the tougher rhetoric coming from the White House, North Korea continued to raise the stakes. On 19 March, Pyongyang announced that it had conducted a ground test of a new “high-thrust” rocket engine under the pretense that it would be used to help launch satellites into space. Three days later, on 22 March, North Korea tested yet another missile, except this one exploded within seconds of launch. But in what is probably the most concerning of all, U.S. intelligence and defense officials believe that Kim Jong-un is getting ready to conduct another nuclear test by the end of March.
This latest round of provocative behavior has forced the Trump administration to look into implementing harsher sanctions on the North Korean regime, sanctions meant to “[cut] North Korea off from the global financial system” and target Chinese banks that do business with the country.
Thursday, March 30th: Malaysians Citizens, and Kim Jong-Nam’s Body, Released
Kim Jong-Nam’s body will be flown to Pyongyang in exchange for the return of nine Malaysians blocked from leaving the North Korean capital.
Tuesday, April 4th: Kim Jong-un Launches Ballistic Missile Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
North Korea test-fired another missile into the Sea of Japan, a day before the summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping is scheduled to begin in Washington, D.C. Both leaders are expected to discuss how to deal with North Korea’s weapons program so this missile launch is seen both as a response to that as well as a test of missile technology.
TL;DR:
Thursday, March 5th: North Korean Ambassador Expelled from Malaysia
- North Korean ambassador to Malaysia expelled from the country after freeze of diplomatic relations between both countries.
- Freeze is a result of the assassination of Kim Jong-un’s half brother in Kuala Lumpur the month before.
Monday, March 6th: Kim Jong-un Tests More Ballistic Missiles
- North Korea launched four missiles on Monday, which fell into the Sea of Japan.
- Response to annual joint US-South Korean military drills.
- Follows missile test on February 12th seen as testing President Trump
Monday, March 6th: U.S Begins Deployment of Anti-Missile Shield in South Korea
- THADD stands for Terminal High Altitude Area Defense.
- Deployment has irritated China, who sees THAAD as a way to contain it.
- Meant to detect missiles launched from North Korea and intercept them.
Tuesday, March 7th: North Korea Bans Malaysian Citizens from Leaving
- Malaysia responded by also banning N. Korean citizens from leaving the country.
- Part of an escalating diplomatic row over the suspected assassination of Kim Jong-nam, Kim Jong-un’s half brother.
- Malaysia’s investigation into the murder has infuriated the North Koreans and they demand that Malaysia turn over Kim Jong-un’s body.
Wednesday, March 15th: Kim Jong-nam’s Identity Confirmed
- Video emerges on 8 March of man claiming to be Kim Jong-nam’s son confirming his father had been murdered.
- A week later, Malaysian authorities confirm definitively through DNA testing that the man murder is in fact Kim Jong-nam.
Friday, March 17th: Secretary Tillerson Ends “Strategic Patience” Policy
- On his first visit to East Asia, U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson announces that the U.S policy of “strategic patience” towards North Korea had ended.
- Tillerson also suggested that military action could be used preemptively if the threat posed by North Korea becomes severe.
- Chinese officials rebuke President Trump’s claims that they are not helping and reaffirm their commitment to a diplomatic solution.
Sunday, March 19th: Pyongyang Continues To Push The Envelope
- North Korea conducts new ground test of “high-thrust” rocket engine.
- Pyongyang conducts another missile test, but fails.
- Intelligence and defense officials expect Kim Jong-un to conduct another nuclear test by the end of the month.
- Trump administration considering tougher sanctions on North Korea.
Thursday, March 30th: Malaysians Citizens, and Kim Jong-Nam’s Body, Released
- Malaysia and North Korea come to an agreement whereby Malaysia will return the body of Kim Jong-nam to Pyongyang in exchange for the nine Malaysian citizens being prevented from leaving North Korea.
- This seems to be the final chapter in the months-long diplomatic row between both countries.
Tuesday, April 4th: Kim Jong-un Launches Ballistic Missile Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit
- North Korea test-fired yet another missile into the Sea of Japan, a day before President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in D.C.
- Test seen both as a response to that summit and a test of missile technology.
