The Unpredictable Curve of COVID-19

Expanding our mental model of flattening the curve to make sense of the uncertain road ahead

The “flatten the curve graphic” and message are mainstream news here in the United States. Stephen Colbert issued his opening monologue from his bathtub while his studio was closed, and brought along the most famous chart of 2020.

Stephen Colbert explains flattening the curve from his bathtub monologue. (Full video)

Harry Stevens’s animated explainer in the Washington Post is the most-viewed page of all time on the paper’s website. Perhaps this helps to make the case for greater investment in data visualization expertise in newsrooms and beyond: charts and maps make information accessible and interesting.

The infographic version of “flatten the curve” has been reinterpreted a number of ways (including with cats and baby Yoda). Most iterations are conceptual graphics though, not rooted in the actual case counts of COVID-19. Opinion articles have proliferated, speculating on what the future holds for the United States: Can we turn a corner? Will the economic fall out be worse than the the human toll of the disease? How long does this “social distancing” thing need to continue?

Now, our challenge is to figure out how this infographic translates to real life.