2021: Needing a Crystal Ball
Trump has gone, Brexit is done, all that remains is to consign Covid-19 to history
Once the mass vaccination has been rolled out we can all get back to normal. At least that is the story that we are being peddled, and one that most of us really want to believe. If all it takes is a little prick, then that will be a shot in the arm for everyone. The vaccines are over ninety per cent effective (pity the poor five per cent).
The logistics of mass vaccination on an island as small as Jersey pale into insignificance with that of a country the size of the UK, less so now the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine has become available. Then there are the anti-vaccers, the trypanophobics, those who have had the disease and the forgetful, whose actions will reduce the efficacy of a mass vaccination program. There are disputes about who should be first in queue. Should it be the most vulnerable, key workers, or those most likely to spread the disease, the disrespectful youth? Despite all the side-shows we should get the job done, sooner rather than later.
Most of the diseases that affect society have their origins in other animals and their proximity to humans. Cowpox morphed into smallpox, and the Spanish flu of 1918 which is attributed to pig herds in the USA. As we cut away at the rainforests, other pathogens are exposed, finding new strains that jump, sometimes literally, to new hosts, us. AIDs, Ebola and many other nasties.
You may argue that COVID-19 is a once in a lifetime ‘crisis’ but a cursory look at the chronology of pandemics shows that they are occurring with ever increasing frequency:
- 2020: Covid-19
- 2015: Zika
- 2014: Ebola
- 2009: H1N1
- 2007: Sars
- 2003: H5N1
Granted not all of these turned into full blown pandemics (because the scientists stepped in, in the nick of time!) but they show that the threat is always out there. Two to four new viruses are created every year.
In respect of COVID-19 we are at the start of a journey. Like the unfortunate native Americans when European conquistadors arrived, we have no immunity. The disease spreads quickly and with devastating consequences. Global travel has accelerated the spread. Basic school science tells us that we can slow, or even stop the spread, by maintaining basic hygiene and keeping our distance. But we are human. We forget, we are weak, we are selfish.
There is a misconception with herd immunity. Many believe that it provides complete immunity once established, it does not. Herd immunity just reduces transmission of the disease. Only mass vaccination will eliminate the disease, as has happened in the UK with polio and measles. The more that are immunised the less rapidly the disease spreads, that is all. Once the initial flush is over, whether that be after this second or even a third wave, COVID-19 will be with us forever, and society will have to learn to live with it.
Although scientists are improving their understanding of the COVID-19 virus there is still a lot to learn. They do not know how long a person will have immunity for if they get infected. The latest estimate is between three and nine months. They also estimate that it takes around six weeks before a person builds up enough anti-bodies to fight off the disease.
In respect of the vaccines, there is little information as to how long they will provide immunity for. There is speculation that we will need numerous boosters throughout the year. Professor Devi Sridhar, Chair of Global Public Health at Edinburgh University has pointed out that we do not know whether the vaccines stop transmission of the disease or their effects on the less talked about ‘long-COVID’. She is also an advocate of a total lockdown, pointing out that suppression and/or flattening the curve creates the ideal conditions for mutations to occur, as we are finding out. Elimination, in her view is the best strategy. Countries like New Zealand and Singapore, having almost eradicated the spread, are ideally placed to gain economically. Once they have vaccinated their population they are ready to go, without being hidebound by persistent clusters and spikes, which will no doubt dog most other economies.
What does this all mean for Jersey in the new year? The best estimate for having all islanders fully immunised according to Dr Muscat is sometime around September. Which then begs the question what happens between then and now. The tight restrictions over Christmas will no doubt bring the rate of infection down. However, lessons learned from other brief ‘circuit breakers’ is that once a government relaxes restrictions, infection rates rise rapidly.
There are those that still hanker for the ‘hit hard, hit early’ approach. Whilst the Council of Minister’s has shown a disinclination to do either so far, the quiet post-Christmas period would be an ideal time to keep everything tight and vaccinate as many as possible in the interim. Their ‘cautious’ approach is to be recommended but the worry is that they will relax the restrictions too soon (as they have done at almost every juncture so far) and there will be further unnecessary deaths. The clamour in the UK and across the world is to tighten restrictions, not ease them, especially with the rise of a the new variant. That will allow the experts to at least get ahead of the curve and put us back in control, ready for the Easter break and beyond. Surely this makes economic sense.
