It’s now vital that Jersey’s Chief Minister gets ahead of the curve and regains the initiative
Covid-19 is here to stay, and we will have to learn to live with it
The island is in the grip of a nightmare before Christmas. The one constant since the arrival of COVID-19 has been Senator le Fondre’s dogged determination to deal with its spread his way. Contain and suppress is a variation of herd immunity, allowing the virus to spread but in a controlled way. Eyebrows were raised back in March, following a lengthy lockdown, when he chose not to follow Guernsey’s lead and keep all the borders shut. The introduction of testing arrivals at the ports and airport, together with the creation of a Track and Trace team and on-island testing, made the islands defences seem formidable, but they were not. Back then other countries were lauding Jersey’s approach to the pandemic, now we find ourselves lagging the rest of the world. But the man is still not for turning.
Having survived a vote of no confidence he is secure in the knowledge that the majority of the government support him. He must also have taken comfort, that, by and large, there has been little criticism from the media and even less dissention, bar a few rantings on social media. But the clamour is growing. He has a nerve, and he is holding it, even though others are getting on it.
Islanders are all too aware of the ocean between us and Guernsey re COVID statistics. The mantra from the Chief Minister has always been about ‘balancing’ economics with people’s safety. However, the latest economic F.P.P (August) show a downturn of around 7.5% of GVA for Jersey and 6.6% for Guernsey and that was before hospitality was effectively shut down. What damage has been done to brand Jersey? There has been little gain for all the pain Jersey islanders are having to endure. Then of course there is the ethical argument; what price do you put on each islander’s life?
Senator le Fondre has been subjected to much vitriol. From his lacklustre delivery, lack of communication and transparency, to his glacial reaction towards implementing change. The trolling is incessant. His critics point to terms he uses, such as ‘advice’ and ‘guidance’, saying that they have created a vacuum whereby sections of the public carry on regardless. At best they regard him as naïve, at worst, incompetent. For sure, he is no Donald Trump or a Boris Johnson. But should the man be castigated for being mild mannered? Have his detractors confused meek with weak?
The Chief Minister maintains that he is in control, but with eye-watering daily figures such re-assurance is hard to swallow. His hopes are pinned on the present spike peaking over this weekend. Deaths are occurring and this time around they were preventable. As the Senator sits down to his family Christmas dinner, he will do so in the knowledge that his decisions are responsible for other families having the worst of all Yuletide gifts. It is a heavy burden to carry and not one he signed up for at election time in 2018. His supporters must also be feeling the guilt, culpable as they are.
Looking back at what was written in the amendment to Deputy Perchard’s proposition back in July. The statement must be haunting him and the others that voted it through;
“…ensure the continued control and suppression of the virus in a safe and sustainable way that protects Islanders by causing the least overall harm.”
Staying calm while others around you are baying for blood is an asset, but there is a fine line between caution and vacillation. Knowing when to act and to act decisively is critical. Has the Chief Minister got it right more times than he has made the wrong call? Is he ‘Cool Hand Luke’, the ice-cool poker player, keeping his cards close to his chest, or a Mavis ‘I’m not really sure’ Wilton? Yes, there is a societal responsibility for us all to play our part, however, in a crisis, islanders need to have trust in their leader and be led, but not up a garden path.
No matter what your opinion, the hand that he has been dealt is an unenviable one, one that few would relish. For a time in the summer, he seemed to be doing a decent job. Deputy Judy Martin, the Social Security Minister commented “…. Please go and live in Guernsey if you think they are doing everything better!” How many would wish they could go there now. Our borders might not be closed, but most of our neighbours have closed their borders to us. Opponents of John le Fondre’s management are generally advocates of a lockdown. They point to New Zealand or, closer to home, Guernsey. They are persistent, a vocal minority, nagging away within (and outside of) government. However, it is what you do after a lockdown that counts.
How does the island get itself out of this omni-shambles? Looking beyond this second wave, what does the future hold? If the Chief Minister does not act, and decisively, there will be a third wave, early in the new year. The Pfizer vaccine is being administered but it will take months to roll out to everyone. What do we do in between?
It is vital that the Chief Minister gets ahead of the curve and regains the initiative. The simplest option would be to follow Guernsey’s lead “go hard” and have a total lockdown until the majority of the island has been vaccinated. That will require great personal fortitude but with vaccine relief in sight, timely, considering January to March are quiet months commercially speaking. If there is to be no lockdown or just a brief ‘circuit breaker’ then how does he control the spread once the doors are re-opened?
· Testing at the borders worked, but needs tightening up
· France is operating a curfew between the hours of 8pm and 6am, backed up by stricter police checks.
· In Birmingham, shops and restaurants are trialling a ‘test and dine’ pilot, using rapid testing kit.
· Why not roll out repeat mass testing to all adults?
· Having daily monitoring of retail businesses would allow venues like gyms and pubs to open.
· Restricting clientele to two drinks is another possibility.
Vigilance and enforcement are essential. A high level of policing is necessary if he is to bridge the gap. Failure to comply would need to be met with instant closure and an on the spot fine.
Covid-19 is here to stay, and we will have to learn to live with it. Like the native Americans, whose civilisations were decimated by European disease, we are only at the start of this journey. What does the future hold?
