4 Ways the Clemson Offense Can Rebound After Losing the Opener
ESPN’s College GameDay was once a can’t-miss, wake-up-at-6-AM kind of day for Clemson fans. Be it the 2006 defeat of Georgia Tech with C.J. Spiller electrifying Memorial Stadium or the 2015 Notre Dame rain game. But, of recent the team’s unchartered success has diluted the allure of the unique Saturday experienced brought by the College GameDay group.
This past Saturday felt different.
Charlotte was alive for College GameDay and Duke’s Mayo Classic, maybe because it was the first true college football event post-pandemic season. Or maybe, it was just the importance and anticipation of potentially the season’s biggest game.
Then the game started. Both defenses were incredible — better than advertised and led by two elite defensive lines. Clemson left with a loss despite winning two of the three facets of the game — defense and special teams.
The old add-age in football is that each play is a battle in-and-of-itself. Using the Success Rate metric* (see footnotes for more details), we can more adequately measure whether the offense was successful in its battle of moving the chains (on third and fourth down) or edging closer to them (on first and second). Clemson’s offense had a success rate of just 30.3% (to UGA’s 32.8%).
That was the lowest regular season success rate for a Clemson offense since playing a 12th ranked Virginia Tech in 2017. The fourth quarter showed signs of life, however, with a 47.4% success rate on 19 plays.
So, what next for a team with no remaining ranked opponents on its schedule? Sure, the CFB playoffs are still within reach, but the offense will need a lot of growth in the doldrums of the ACC to reach its lofty goals. Let’s explore 5 things within the Clemson offense that will turn it back into the shiny sports car of the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawerence days or make the Tiger’s lofty aspirations a thing of years past.
1. So, the offensive line struggled. How about moving the pocket?
While expectations were higher for this year’s offensive line, due to growth of highly touted recruits and more experience, having a weak offensive line (relative only to the other CFP contenders) is not exactly new for Tony Elliot’s offense. Even with the Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawerence led squads, Clemson was creative finding ways to get the ball out of the backfield quickly or move the pocket, rather than have the quarterback as a sitting duck for the inevitable.
The offense’s of the past would extend the pocket, creating space and time for the quarterback that typically evaporates quickly. Sure, Lawerence and Watson are likely a bit more mobile than D.J. Uiagalelei, but this should be in his wheel house and help create opportunities in the flats.
2. Establishing a run game
Despite the presence of NFL running backs in the previous decade — Ellington, Gallman, Etienne — Clemson’s offense has always been built on its creative passing game and turn-style of elite pass catchers. Even last season, passing to Travis Etienne in unique ways out of the backfield or the use of quick bubble screens were a part of the “run game”.
But, Saturday night saw Clemson split just 9 carries amongst three running backs (Lyn-J Dixon missed the first half for violating team rules) and never got anything going until a late Dixon run (each back had 1 reception). The struggles in the trenches almost made the Tigers hesitant to run the ball, which allowed Kirby Smart’s defense to drop 7 or 8 into coverage.
While great running backs can change a play in a heart beat, even the best running backs will scarcely see the second level (> 3 yards) of a defense without a solid offensive line. Clemson’s backfield — including Uiagalelei who had 7 carries — only got to the second level on 31.3% of carries.
Being more thoughtful about going to the run game — as Tony Elliot said after the game — and finding which back can take a majority of the carries will open things up for Uiagalelei to show off his arm and give the Tigers more diversity in their offense. All three backs — Shipley, Pace, and Dixon — provide their own combination of speed and physicality this offense needs, but getting them the ball in places they can use it may requires those tools of old.
3. Find the big play threat
Georgia’s blistering defense only allowed two plays of 20+ yards on the game for a Clemson offense that has seen electric threats like Spiller, Watkins, Hopkins, Williams, Etienne, and more. Last year, veteran Cornell Powell stepped up to take on that role in the receiving core in several crucial games, but coming out of camp, this question still remained.
Joseph Ngata may have given Dabo Swinney the answer. He had the three longest plays for the Tigers on the night (44, 24, and 15 yards) with the next three longest plays for the Tigers all being pass interference calls. But, Clemson will need more big play weapons to step up before it sees the likes of a Top 5 opponent again.
4. Who will the third down option be?
Since Dabo Swinney’s reign began there has been a slew of third down receiving options with sure-enough hands to give Clemson fans a bit of ease on third down: Michael Palmer, Dwayne Allen, Jordan Leggett, Hunter Renfrow, Amari Rodgers, etc. Will an option emerge for the 2021 team?
Maybe it is Ngata who received the most third and fourth down targets with 4 — he caught 3 of them for 63 yards. Uiagalelei, particularly in the first three quarters, seemed to be locked on a particular receiver (usually Ross or Ngata) the moment the ball was snapped. Once he gets the poise and comfortability to check down, Clemson’s tight ends should play a bigger role in a way they haven’t the last few seasons.
Braden Galloway (6 targets, 2 on 3rd or 4th down) and Davis Allen (3 targets) were Uiagalelei’s second and third most targeted options behind Ngata and Ross, respectively. With offensive coordinator Tony Elliot moving over to coach the tight end’s this season, we may see less four receiver formations, and more opportunities for the big men to help move the chains when Elliot needs it the most.
Finding this third down option will be key to Uiagalelei to move the ball down the field. The biggest silver lining offensively was that in addition to the legend of Ngata finally shining through, the tight ends could be a weapon for Uiagalelei like they weren’t the last several seasons.
The answers for the Tigers offensively may lie in the recipes of old. It may lie in more creative play calling with a younger offense. It may, simply, lie in being patient and allowing talented playmakers to grow with more opportunities.
College GameDay will surely be back, it is just a matter of when.
*Success Rate measures how well a team is moving the ball. A play is a success if >50% of the distance is picked up on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.
