An end to Moore’s Law: The Dawn of a New Computing Era

ed fernandez
Dec 4, 2015 · 3 min read

(continuation to: The Second Arms Race: Artificial Intelligence)

An end to Moore’s Law (Mack 2011)

Many information technologies have evolved at exponential rate (Nagy et al, 2011), Moore’s law, stating the transistor count doubles every 2 years, has been at the core of causality for 50 years.

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But this trend may not hold for much longer (Mack 2011, Lundstrom 2003) as per physical limitations of silicon, or, maybe we don’t see the forest for the trees.

  • There are limits to the exponential growth inherent in each paradigm. Moore’s law was not the first paradigm to bring exponential growth to computing, but rather the fifth.
  • In the 1950s they were shrinking vacuum tubes to keep the exponential growth going and then that paradigm hit a wall. But the exponential growth of computing didn’t stop.
  • It kept going, with the new paradigm of transistors taking over. Each time we can see the end of the road for a paradigm, it creates research pre, quest for the pressure to create the next one.
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  • That’s happening now with Moore’s law, even though we are still about fifteen years away from the end of our ability to shrink transistors on a flat integrated circuit.
  • We’re making dramatic progress in creating the sixth paradigm, which is three-dimensional (quantum) molecular computing.

Ray Kurzweil — The Singularity is near

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The dawn of a new computing era: More than Moore MtM

Moore’s law will come to an end as a consequence of physical limitations of silicon; three dimensional quantum computing is poised to take over as the new paradigm.

Quantum computing timeline:

2013

Coherent superposition of an ensemble of approximately 3 billion qubits for 39 minutes at room temperature. The previous record was 2 seconds.

2014

Documents leaked by Edward Snowden confirm the Penetrating Hard Targets Project, by which the National Security Agency seeks to develop a quantum computing capability for cryptographic purposes.

Scientists transfer data by quantum teleportation over a distance of 10 feet (3.048 meters) with zero percent error rate, a vital step towards a quantum Internet.

2015

Optically addressable nuclear spins in a solid with a six-hour coherence time.

Quantum information encoded by simple electrical pulses.

Quantum error detection code using a square lattice of four superconducting qubits

Quantum computing promises to augment computing power a billion fold, however, we may not need to get there to develop a strong Artificial Intelligence, one that has the capacity to improve and evolve by itself.

The expectation is that soon after we reach a strong AI matching a human brain, the ability to replicate it rapidly and limitlessly will generate a self-improving general AI, which in turn would accelerate intelligence exponentially.

@efernandez

Next: An Explosion of Intelligence: The A.I. Arms Race

No, I won’t fix your computer

Life, Business & Technology as seen by accidental quants &…

ed fernandez

Written by

Board Director, Advisor, Faculty @Northeastern university, Entrepreneur, YPO, Nerd, HIQer. 1st PC had 64Kb RAM, I see everything that’s my curse.

No, I won’t fix your computer

Life, Business & Technology as seen by accidental quants & nerds

ed fernandez

Written by

Board Director, Advisor, Faculty @Northeastern university, Entrepreneur, YPO, Nerd, HIQer. 1st PC had 64Kb RAM, I see everything that’s my curse.

No, I won’t fix your computer

Life, Business & Technology as seen by accidental quants & nerds

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