Sunday Newsletter: Russia — A Nuclear Threat?

Every week in our Sunday Newsletter, Noa editor Lisa Kennedy writes an explainer column to provide background information on a developing news story.

Following the invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces in late February, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a move that’s left onlookers in two minds. Some are concerned that the world is close to the threat of nuclear war. Others think Putin’s words lack any actual intention.

The absence of certainty is inspiring caution amongst world leaders.

The Background…

Nuclear weapons are capable of mass destruction in a short amount of time. While they’ve existed for more 80 years, countries have mainly developed nuclear weapons as a deterrent against potential attacks from other countries. To date, the only time nuclear weapons have been used in an armed conflict was in 1945, when the United States detonated two nuclear devices over the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, killing an estimated 200,000 people.

It’s estimated that Russia owns half the world’s 14,000 nuclear weapons.

The Story…

In a speech earlier this week, Putin ordered the Russian military to move their “deterrent forces” (which includes the country’s nuclear weapons) to a “special mode of combat duty”. It’s unclear exactly how this will be interpretated by the Russian military, but it will likely make it easier for Russia to launch nuclear weapons if Putin chooses to do so.

Putin claimed that this was in response to “aggressive statements” made by allies of Ukraine.

Analysts remain unclear as to whether Putin’s words represent an empty warning or a significant threat. Many interpret it as the former. Nevertheless, the situation is continuing to be closely observed by the world’s intelligence community.

Some have pointed out that the move may be a sign of Putin’s miscalculations regarding Ukraine — he appears to have underestimated the level of resistance Russian troops would face from the Ukrainian people, or the united response from allies that reacted with punitive measures, like imposing economic sanctions against Russia. Therefore, Putin’s order could be seen as a strategy to deter the U.S. and other Ukrainian allies from intervening further.

Following Putin’s announcement, the European Union announced fresh sanctions and punitive measures against Russia, including financing weapons for Ukraine, and a total ban on Russian planes flying in EU airspace.

Our Coverage…

In recent years, the threat of nuclear war has only grown. Listen to this Noa Series to understand why.