The Donald vs. Hillary: Talk 2016 To Me
Explainers: Wherein a student expert and a student designer make sense of the complex
Editors’ note: We started this magazine in the hopes of bringing to light the creative sides of our fellow students. Beyond that, we want to showcase your expertise in topics we might find too daunting to tackle. Thus was born “Explainers” — an outlet for student experts to work with student artists to share knowledge with the community. This month, former U.S. Senate Chief of Staff Val Young and makeitStick.io founder Alli McKee answer the question, “What is happening in the Presidential campaign?”
The Tea Party and the rise of the anti-candidate
If you’re like us, you’ve watched the Republican primary season with a mix of fascination and bafflement. Conventional wisdom told us that Donald Trump was going to peter out in August, when voters started paying attention… then in December, when he was exposed at the debates… yet here we are in May with a Trump nomination looming. How did we go from the party that has always nominated the next in line to one where the last two men standing (Trump and Senator Ted Cruz) were true outsiders?
We begin with the rise of the Tea Party in 2009 centered on a rejection of big-government, which took GOP leaders by surprise and sowed the seeds for grassroots disruption. Throw in a healthy dose of major crises from institutions (see: the Catholic Church, big banks, Congress) and a shrinking, disaffected middle class, and you’ve got a populace ready to revolt.
A few perceptive leaders saw opportunity where many saw only chaos; thus the meteoric rise of sharp-tongued Cruz, the junior Senator from Texas: the anti-Obama, anti-Washington, anti-establishment candidate. Cruz seemed to be the natural outgrowth and leader of the Tea Party movement and many identified him as the outsider candidate to ride the Tea Party wave to the White House.
Few expected Cruz to be beat at his own game. And yet, Trump emerged as the true anti-candidate: the anti-Muslim, anti-immigration, anti-loser, anti-politician politician, which was, apparently, just what the pessimistic GOP electorate wanted. What remains to be seen is just how splintered the Grand Old Party’s ship will be with a top of ticket best known for what he stands against.
What will I be hearing about between now and November 8?
We know that there is an ongoing Democratic primary between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders. But while Sanders continues to win states, the math is stacked against him and in reality he’s no longer in the running for the presidency. And so we’re focusing this conversation on the highly likely outcome of Trump v. Clinton.
This election is shaping up to be the most expensive, and negative, in American history. Donald Trump just wrapped up a highly negative primary, and the general election is likely only to get nastier. Cutting through the negative ads and snarky tweets, what can we expect from the two candidates between now and election day?
Secretary Clinton’s strength lies in her stability. As a former First Lady, Senator, and Secretary of State, Clinton will remind the American people that she has handled numerous crises across more than two decades in elected politics. In addition, Clinton offers wistful Democrats a promise of “Obama+”: building on and finishing the promises of the Obama legacy from healthcare to foreign policy.
Also watch for Clinton to bring social issues to the forefront. Democratic voters largely agree with her on these issues, and Trump has shown capacity to go wildly off script, giving Clinton an opportunity to score points as Trump alienates. Finally, keep an eye out for Hillary Clinton, the Anti-Trump. When he’s erratic, she’s calm. When he’s sensational, she’s presidential. She’ll be reminding voters that no matter what they think of her, at least she’s not Trump.
Mr. Trump on the other hand, has his own playbook. The Republican primary showed Trump that unlike traditional candidates, he’s not punished for wild comments or shifting positions, but rather rewarded for his “authenticity.” Expect him to ramp up personal attacks against “Crooked Hillary” as he did against “Lyin’ Ted” and “Little Marco”. On the issues, Trump will continue to beat the drum on extreme immigration measures; building that GD wall, deporting undocumented immigrants, and monitoring (or altogether banning) muslim immigration to the United States. Trump also jumped on the “bad deals” bandwagon regarding trade and manufacturing and is likely to continue to make the case for a Trump presidency replacing “bad” deals with “good” deals.
Finally, Trump will remind voters that a vote for The Donald is a vote for A Winner. Steaks, wine, water, golf courses… whatever Trump touches turns to gold, or at least that’s what he’ll be telling voters. So just wait until he gets his hands on the American economy…It’s gonna be YYYYYUGE!
Alright, who is going to win, and how is it going to go down?
If you’ve been keeping even a side eye on the news these days or eavesdropping on Professor Hennessey in Arbuckle, you may be rightly confused about the state of the 2016 election. The Wall Street Journal reports Hillary’s lead over The Donald is only 3 percentage points, while the New York Times tells us Mr. Trump begins the matchup at a significant disadvantage. Both candidates are deeply unpopular with various demographics, and despite Mrs. Clinton’s longstanding lead, Trump has upended conventional wisdom with alarming regularity this year.
We’re here to tell you, forget the think pieces (except this one) and ignore the polls (for the most part) because it’s all about that Electoral College. Our Founding Fathers in their infinite wisdom set up a presidential election system designed to confuse. Unlike when you vote for mayor and the person with the most absolute votes wins, Presidential candidates run head-to-head in each state, and in all but two states, the candidate who wins the majority of votes in a state wins that state’s electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs with big states like California and Florida carrying 55 and 29, respectively, and small states like Vermont and South Dakota carrying 3 each. First candidate to 270 wins.
This system is why, in 2012, Mitt Romney won almost half of the states, but got walloped in the electoral college (332–206). It also explains how, in 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote (absolute number of votes cast) but lost the election to President George W. Bush.
What does this mean for 2016? In short, it’s more useful to look at key states, rather than tracking national polls. As usual, Florida and Ohio, two states that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1992, will be swing states to track. And this year, statistics blog FiveThirtyEight says the election may hinge on Pennsylvania. That is, if Trump can pick up Pennsylvania, the next Trump Tower may be at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
Current projections show Hillary on track to capture the majority, helped by the 18 states (and 242 electoral votes) that have voted for a Democrat each of the last six elections, plus a number of swing states trending her direction.
But it’s a long way to Election Day, and the polls have been wrong before. So stay tuned and make sure you vote in November!
Up next — Up to you. Submit your interest as an explainer, an artist, or both to nondisclosuremag@gmail.com for our next issue.
