Global Warming to Global Conflict
Since the rise of carbon based industry and transportation beginning in the 18th century, greenhouse gasses produced by fossil fuel consumption have filled our atmosphere, trapping heat and gradually warming our earth. This phenomenon is easily recognized as global climate change and while it may still have a few deniers, it is widely acknowledged as one of the greatest problems we will face in the 21st century.
When thinking about global climate change, we consider a number of factors: droughts, food shortages, animal extinction, melting glaciers, loss of ecosystems, rising sea levels, etc. While looking at direct and immediate results such as these are important, it is even more necessary to form a comprehensive and complete view by seeing each one of the aforementioned climate change consequences as one element in a sequence or chain of events.
As climate change progresses, one of the largest effects on human life will be displacement due to desertification or submersion of once inhabitable land. Putting this into the context of a chain of events with each one reacting off the next, CO2 emissions by human-led industry will continue to lead to rising temperatures in our atmosphere and on our earth. In turn, lower water but still arable land across the globe, including areas in Latin America, Africa, and South Asia, will dry out becoming desertified and uninhabitable. A similar sequence occurs for submersion; the rising temperatures in the atmosphere calls for a rise in water temperature and because warm water takes up a greater amount of space than cold, a rise in sea level will occur. Those who live at sea level in coastal regions will be displaced just as those who lived in desertified climates will.
In Indonesia alone, 300 million people live close enough to the coast that a rise in sea level could put their homes in jeopardy [1]. The Maldives, Tulva, and Vanuatu, all island nations, are at risk of disappearing altogether. While it will be developing nations that are primarily hit, many coastal regions of the United States such as Florida and New Orleans will feel the effects of global warming if they haven’t already. New Orleans was devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Florida has been hit with more than 79 hurricanes, cyclones, and tropical storms in the past ten years. These tropical storms are inarguably a result of climate change as well.
Many climate change consequences are thought of as hypothetical in the far future, something that could occur over the next 100 years, rather than something affecting us now. The UNHCR, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, cites displacement due to climate disaster as an effect that is no longer considered hypothetical. Since 2008, 21.5 million people have been displaced every year for climate and weather related reasons, slow onset such as sea level rise and sudden onset such as hurricanes [2]. While sudden onset disasters are undeniably linked to global climate change, slow onset disasters are able to be tracked more closely in their relationship to carbon emissions and rising temperatures. This includes drought, desertification, salinization, ocean acidification, glacial retreat and sea level rise [3]. Being that they are easier to track and anticipate, slow onset should also be easier to prepare for and prevent.
Before those fleeing from these conditions cross borders, climate refugees first become displaced within their own countries. If the issue grows larger throughout the area they could be forced to migrate even farther. Both internal and external migration have their risks, not only because of environmental factors but because of social, economic, and political impacts than go hand in hand with all forms of migration. The UNDP’s report on climate refugees cites economic instability, lack of employment, and poor community cohesion within these migrant groups [4].
To determine what may occur when even more people are forced to migrate due to environmental risks that make their homelands uninhabitable, we do not need to look solely at climate refugees, but what has taken place amongst those who have been forced to seek refuge for other reasons. Migration, especially migration of refugees, has almost always gone hand in hand with conflict, not only the conflict that created the need for migration, but conflict resulting from migration.
One of the largest refugee crises that we have seen in modern times was caused by violence in Syria and created displacement of nearly 7 million people. While 4.5 million were displaced internally, 2.5 million sought refuge elsewhere. Many countries such as Germany, Lebanon, Turkey, and Jordan welcomed refugees, but many others closed their borders. Out of desperation and from lack of other options, thousands of refugees fled the country on rubber rafts or overcrowded boats, resulting in over 2,500 deaths during trips across the Mediterranean alone [5].
In anticipating global mass migration on a much larger scale than the Syrian refugee crisis, we must ask how will we react to displaced people. A reaction similar to the aforementioned crisis, forcible rejection of refugees, the closing of borders, and lack of aid and resources will inevitably lead to more deaths, violence, and global conflict. In order to prevent such conflict, we must first acknowledge that global climate change, progressing at the rate that it is, will result in unlivable, non-arable land all over the world. A conversation needs to begin on how we will support climate refugees and better yet, prevent this impending crisis from going farther than it already has.
To stay up to date with the United Nations fight against climate change, follow @UNFCCC on twitter or visit their website at https://unfccc.int. To learn more about human displacement from climate change and disaster, see the UNHCR report on Climate Change, Migration, and Displacement at https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/11874.pdf.
References
[1] Beyond Borders. Environmental Justice Foundation. 2017.
https://ejfoundation.org/reports/beyond-borders
[2] Frequently Asked Questions on Climate Change and Disaster Displacement. UNHCR. 2016.
[3] Frequently Asked Questions on Climate Change and Disaster Displacement. UNHCR. 2016. https://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resource-documents/11874.pdf
[4] Ibid.
[5] Europe Must Take on Its Share of the Syrian Refugee Burden. European University Institute. By Philippe Fargues. 2014.
http://cadmus.eui.eu/bitstream/handle/1814/29919/MPC_PB_2014_01.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
