How Arms Sales Threaten Peace
The global proliferation of arms through trade does not necessarily cause war when there is none, but it does make conflict more likely when the conditions for it already exist, according to David Kinsella in his article ‘’Arms Transfer Dependence and Foreign Policy Conflict’’ [1]. It cannot be ignored that much of these weapons are primarily supplied by the world’s major powers (including the United States) to developing nations embroiled in or at risk of conflict. This has served to exacerbate violence — and by proxy, threaten peace in those areas.
In the same article, Kinsella also finds that the outcome of a country having more than one supplier will generally be more militaristic in terms of foreign policy and much more likely to be engaged in conflict than otherwise. He based this argument on a wide range of case studies from Africa, Asia, and the Middle East.
These findings are backed up by a recent study by Oliver Pamp, entitled ‘’The Build-Up of Coercive Capacities: Arms Imports and the Import of Violent Intrastate Conflict’’. It showed how importing weapons more often serves to escalate conflict rather than deter it where conditions greatly conducive to conflict exist. It was conducted with the aid of statistical methods and a close look at the relationship between arms sales and the outbreak of civil strife [2].
The US and Russia, followed by France, Germany, and China, are the world’s top gun suppliers. Together, these nations constituted 75% of all arms exports in 2014–18 [3]. Between 2009–13 and 2014–18, US arms exports rose by 29% and the US share of global exports grew by 6% (from 30%). More than 50% of all US weapons exports were to the Middle East and US exports of major weapons were 75% higher than Russia’s in that same period. These included not just conventional arms but also aircraft, missiles, and bombs [4].
Arms imports by the Middle East rose by 87% between 2009–13 and 2014–18 while also accounting for 35% of all global arms imports in the latter four-year period, with Saudi Arabia becoming the largest arms importer globally. Arms imports in some other Middle Eastern countries more than doubled in said timeframe — 206% in Egypt, 225% in Qatar, and 139% in Iraq. In contrast, flows outside the region (and to Syria) ended up decreasing [5]. It is worth noting that most of these nations are embroiled in some armed conflict or other.
Also relevant are President Donald Trump’s decisions to loosen arms sales to nations like Saudi Arabia and leave the Arms Trade Treaty (ATT). Trump argued that the Arms Trade Treaty would require purchases to be tracked by governments and infringe on American gun ownership [6]. He also stated that selling arms to the Saudis would produce investment and jobs, whereas not doing so would push them to get arms from Russia or China [7].
However, the ATT explicitly states that each signatory can regulate weapon sales according to each’s own constitutional system and each country will maintain records in accordance with its own laws [8]. In addition, a highly classified document by the French government showed that the Saudis are critically dependent on Western weapon systems only compatible with NATO country parts, and denounced Saudi intervention in Yemen as ineffective while calling the kingdom’s efforts to secure the border between both nations ‘’a failure’’ [9].
That the world’s foremost arms suppliers need to revisit their arms trade policies is clear. Selling weapons to regions vulnerable to or engaging in conflict doesn’t create peace but only leads to more violence. The US should continue with the ATT and halt sales to the Saudis as well as others at risk of conflict — as the world’s leading supplier, it can do more to prevent armed violence than most. You can assist in combating the proliferation of arms globally by participating in and continuing to support IANSA’s Global Week of Action Against Gun Violence.
References:
[1] Kinsella, David. “Arms Transfer Dependence and Foreign Policy Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research 35, no. 1 (January 1, 1998): 7–23. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343398035001002.
[2] Pamp, Oliver, Lukas Rudolph, Paul W Thurner, Andreas Mehltretter, and Simon Primus. “The Build-up of Coercive Capacities.” Journal of Peace Research 55, no. 4 (January 31, 2018): 430–44. https://doi.org/10.1177/0022343317740417.
[3] “Global Arms Trade: USA Increases Dominance; Arms Flows to the Middle East Surge, Says SIPRI.” SIPRI, March 11, 2019. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2019/global-arms-trade-usa-increases-dominance-arms-flows-middle-east-surge-says-sipri.
[4] “Global Arms Trade: USA Increases Dominance; Arms Flows to the Middle East Surge, Says SIPRI.” SIPRI, March 11, 2019. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2019/global-arms-trade-usa-increases-dominance-arms-flows-middle-east-surge-says-sipri.
[5] Ibid
[6] Gore, D’Angelo. “Trump’s Deceptive Arms Trade Treaty Argument.” FactCheck.org, May 1, 2019.
[7] Emmons, Alex. “Secret Report Reveals Saudi Incompetence and Widespread Use of U.S. Weapons in Yemen.” The Intercept, April 15, 2019. https://theintercept.com/2019/04/15/saudi-weapons-yemen-us-
france/.
[8] Gore, D’Angelo. “Trump’s Deceptive Arms Trade Treaty Argument.” FactCheck.org, May 1, 2019. https://www.factcheck.org/2019/05/trumps-deceptive-arms-trade-treaty-argument/.
[9] Emmons, Alex. “Secret Report Reveals Saudi Incompetence and Widespread Use of U.S. Weapons in Yemen.” The Intercept, April 15, 2019. https://theintercept.com/2019/04/15/saudi-weapons-yemen-us-france/.
Bibliography:
“Arms Trade Treaty — UNODA.” United Nations. United Nations. Accessed June 26, 2019. https://www.un.org/disarmament/convarms/arms-trade-treaty/.
Abramson, Jeff, and Greg Webb. “Arms Control Today.” U.S. to Quit Arms Trade Treaty | Arms Control Association. Accessed June 26, 2019. https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2019-05/news/us-quit-arms-trade-treaty.
“International Action Network on Small Arms IANSA.” Facebook. Accessed June 26, 2019. https://www.facebook.com/IANSAnetwork/.
“The Arms Trade Treaty.” IANSA. Accessed June 26, 2019. http://en.iansa.org/campaign/arms-trade-treaty.
