Summary of the Ukraine Conflict and the Situation Today

Ukraine Crisis in Maps, BBC, https: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-27308526

Introduction

In 2013, Ukraine became the center of attention in international politics due to major protests taking place in Kiev with the objective of overthrowing the then current government of Pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych. Four years after the violent conflict in Southern Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the political, economic and social situation in Ukraine is far from stabilizing. Because international media outlets do not include current updates on the situation in Ukraine, this blog will briefly summarize the conflict in Ukraine and provide current information related to its economy, security and politics.

Background Information

The Ukraine crisis is both important and complicated. First, Ukraine is an Eastern European country, and has one of the biggest land masses on the European continent. It has a population of 45 million people. It borders Russia on the East and Europe on the West. “The country has been pulled from both sides for centuries, and according to historical archives, Russia has spent more than two centuries trying to acquire it for its own.” [6]. The situation worsened in 2013, when former President Viktor Yanukovych rejected an economic deal with the European Union and accepted a $50 billion bailout from Russia to save the country from economic collapse. It seemed to many Ukrainians that their “country had been sold to Russians” [6]. That was when major demonstrations started to occur with most of the protests taking place in the country’s Western region. “Ukraine’s history between Europe and Russia has also left Ukraine culturally and politically divided which has resulted in an identity crisis” [6].

Courtesy of 112 UA- https://112.international/opinion/ukraines-army-between-the-past-and-the-future-10278.html

Why Is This Conflict Important and How Is the Situation Today?

The major issue is that the situation is unresolved and seems uncertain. More specifically, in the West, most people speak native Ukrainian and see their country as part of Europe whereas in the East, people speak Russian and see their country sharing a major cultural heritage with Russia [5]. Former President Yanukovych comes from the Russian speaking part which could potentially explain his political shift towards Russia. The conflict in Ukraine has also resulted in major challenges in the security, economic and political spheres the country.

In my view, security is a major and most important concern as some parts of Ukraine are still under conflict. For example, Ukraine currently suffers from serious cyberattacks. Russia is usually behind “devastating cyberattacks on Ukraine’s banks, government and power grid” [3]. Ultimately, the Ukrainian government has yet to develop a comprehensive cybersecurity system to prevent cyber-attacks that have negative consequences on the efficacy of government services.

Additionally on the political side, Presidential elections are scheduled to take place in October 2019. Pro-European former prime minister Ms. Julia Tymoshenko is favored to win the elections. It seems that the current government is unlikely to adopt any new measures to boost the economy or improve the already decreasing investment which may soon lead to economic and investment instability [4]. Another cause for concern is if any measures will be adopted to prevent corruption which is also a major issue in Ukrainian politics. In 2017, Transparency International rated Ukraine with a corruption rate of 30% which makes it one of the world’s top 50 most corrupt countries [2].

Furthermore on the economics side, the Ukrainian economy is in rough shape. Its debt will be a major challenge since it has already surpassed 80% of GDP and the country between 2018 to 2021 will need to repay $6 billion each year. GDP on the other hand, is expected to grow by 3% which is lower than other Eastern European states. The inflation rate is expected to be 7% [4]. The IMF has called for privatizations in state-owned enterprises and further liberalization of the gas market for households [4].

Conclusion and Call to Action:

Finally, Ukraine is going through a tough period with negative consequences on its political, economic and social sides. Ukraine is far from stable, and the current conflict has left the country divided with uncertain prospects for its future. It is time for civil society and international organizations to focus and take more active action in Ukraine, deemed the “apple of discord” between Russia and Europe. Ukraine seems to not have decided if it wishes to follow either the Russian or the European path leaving its political situation uncertain while many questions of its future remain unanswered. Nonviolence International Ukraine is active in seeking nonviolent solutions to the fighting while working on sustainable solutions to Ukraine’s other problems.

REFERENCES

[1] Buckley, Cynthia, Ralph Clem, Jarod Fox, and Erik Herron. “The War in Ukraine Is More Devastating than You Know.” The Washington Post. April 9, 2017. Accessed September 27, 2018. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/04/09/the-war-in-ukraine-is-more-devastating-than-you-know/?utm_term=.9d43cb7ac34c.

[2] Corruption Perceptions Index 2017 Transparency e.V- https://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2017

[3] Russia Was Behind ‘malicious’ Cyber Attack on Ukraine, Foreign Office Says Ben Farmer — https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/15/russia-behind-malicious-cyber-attack-ukraine-foreign-office/

[4] Ukraine: What To Expect in 2018 Ruslan Minich — http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraine-what-to-expect-and-follow-in-2018

[5] The Daily Conversation. “Ukraine’s History Explained: WWI to 2014 Revolution”. Filmed [February 2014]. YouTube video, 05:10. Posted [February 2014]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZkqFRByOM0

[6] The Washington Post. “Ukraine’s Crisis Explained in 2 Minutes”. Filmed [February 2014]. YouTube video, 02:30. Posted [February 2014]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pWtDF5-ddk