Zach LaVine’s Injury: A Blessing in Disguise
The loss of Timberwolves guard Zach LaVine may not be as devastating as you would expect.
In a season full of disappointment thus far for the Timberwolves, Zach LaVine’s injury may be just what they needed. After the emergence of Karl Anthony-Towns as one of the game’s most promising players last season, it looked as though the Minnesota Timberwolves finally had something to look forward to.
Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine form one of the leagues most promising trios. Three ultra-athletic young talents that could grow together and set the foundation of success the Timberwolves appear destined to have for the next decade. Then they hired defensive genius Tom Thibodeau and expectations went through the roof. The discipline and defensive tenacity he would surely implement was the last step in turning the Timberwolves from a perennial laughing stock into the team with the most promising future in the NBA. Or so we thought.
Things have not exactly gone as planned for Minnesota this season. The team started 1–5, are currently sitting at 13th in the West and they are still in the bottom half of the league defensively. So why would losing one of the three key building blocks for the Wolves be a good thing? He does not fit next to Andrew Wiggins and when he is off the floor the ball ends up in the hands of Ricky Rubio.
LaVine is one of the better scoring guards in the league. He has elite athleticism, a beautiful looking jump shot that he hits with great consistency and the ability to blow by his man and finish in traffic. For the majority of the season he has been Minnesota’s most consistent scorer. However, his skillset is redundant.
Andrew Wiggins is also an otherworldly athlete. He does not have the consistency in his jump shot that LaVine does but overall they provide many of the same things. They are both scorers first (and only) who provide little else while being on the floor. They both require the ball in their hands to be successful, LaVine less so than Wiggins. They are both miserable defenders. LaVine in all aspects, Wiggins as a help defender who routinely gets lost in traffic or caught ball watching. You can live with a one-dimensional scorer who provides very little outside of it. You cannot have two at essentially the same position and do the same. Don’t take my word for it, let the numbers tell the story instead.
The Timberwolves are 22–35 this season (.386). In games LaVine has played they are 16–31 (.340) and they are 6–4 (.600) without him. Seven of those ten games have come against teams that would currently be in the playoffs if the season ended now. Three of Andrew Wiggins’ four 40+ point games have come in the ten games Zach has missed.
Wiggins (LaVine in): 21.5 ppg 4.2 rpg 2.5 apg 0.8 spg 0.3 bpg 44.3–34.2–74.3
Wiggins (LaVine out): 31.2 ppg 4.2 rpg 2.7 apg 1.4 spg 0.6 bpg 53.7–40.5–79.2
Rubio (LaVine in): 8.4 ppg 3.9 rpg 7.8 apg 1.7 spg 2.3 topg 37.9–29.7–86.5
Rubio (LaVine out): 11.0 ppg 3.4 rpg 11.1 apg 2.2 spg 2.9 topg 40.7–22.2–89.5
Wiggins and Rubio are the two obvious candidates to have better stats with LaVine out. It means the offense runs through Rubio more often which would lead to more assists (and turnovers) and Wiggins would get more shots because they have to make up the scoring difference somehow.
Despite the large increase in usage both Rubio and Wiggins have been significantly more efficient. Rubio is relegated to sitting in the corner at times and is completely misused when Wiggins/Towns/LaVine are all in the game. With LaVine out the team plays to Rubio’s strengths and allows him to be the elite playmaker and defender that he is. Wiggins is allowed to play his more natural position of shooting guard and use his combination of length and athleticism as a significant advantage against smaller wings, hence why his efficiency and scoring outputs go through the roof in Zach’s absence.
You would think the player that would be most impacted negatively would be the team’s best player; Karl Anthony-Towns. Putting the ball in the hands of two lesser shooters, taking away their premiere outside threat and allowing defenses to collapse harder on him should lead to a decrease in numbers for Towns especially in efficiency.
Karl-Anthony Towns (LaVine in): 23.0 ppg 11.7 rpg 3.1 apg 0.6 spg 1.5 bpg 50.9–35.4–81.1
Karl-Anthony Towns (LaVine out): 27.3 ppg 12.7 rpg 2.2 apg 0.9 spg 1.2 bpg 55.1–26.5–87.5
Towns efficiency also jumps despite the fact he has to be relied upon more and has not been able to find consistency with his jump shot in the games Zach has missed. So in his absence the team’s three most important players play better and the team wins more. It seems there is a clear correlation here.
Ten games is a small sample size, but who knows how the rest of this season will turn out. The Wolves seem to be hitting their stride and look poised to compete for the 8th spot in the West.
My belief is that Wiggins, Rubio and Towns will continue to play at a higher level in 2017. Making it clear that the team does better when they play through Rubio and allow Wiggins to play his natural position at the two, granting the Timberwolves to play newly signed Lance Stephenson and veteran Brandon Rush more minutes. While neither are the caliber of player that LaVine is, there is less redundancy on the court, the ball moves around better and the defensive awareness and versatility also improve. Upon his return it may be wise to evaluate whether he should be moved or turned into a more traditional sixth man.
