The Donald, 2016
It’s coming to the end of the year and so far it’s been very, very exciting. Tons of stuff happened.
We’ll get to the others but I’m gonna start with America electing Donald Trump for the most powerful office in the world. Just to be clear, I am not voting in the US election but as an observer, I’ve cautioned that he could and would eventually win the election. I’ve predicted a Trump victory pretty much since the beginning. It wasn’t a popular prediction but after Tuesday, the name dominates conversations and some questions keep turning up. I’ll do a few here.
President Donald Trump, is it a good thing?
There is no short answer to this but for Americans, no, most probably he is not a good thing for your great nation. He doesn’t strike me as a very good man.
In many ways, Donald Trump will test the extent and resiliency of the idea of democracy as we know it. It will be for the American institution of checks and balances to restrain him as best it could.
However, Donald Trump is a political newbie and he will not be alone in governing the United States. They have laws (presumably) to keep things from going to too far on his own people.
Internationally, the President of the USA is the Most Powerful Man on the Planet and there are very few laws to regulate his foreign policy — the American president can do pretty much whatever he likes. Apart from a small number of specifics (Israel, Russia, Mexico), I don’t get much details of how much The Donald actually cares about the rest of the world.
From what he said on the campaign trails, most likely President Trump would be less inclined to initiate fresh adventures in far flung places or to entangle American military in brand new overseas wars. That could be a good thing, but not always. On many occasions, Mr. Trump was quite intense and determined not to let people make fun of his America.
As it is, country is already well invested in the ongoing war against ISIS in Iraq, Syria and North Africa. Expect things to get much worse before they get anywhere else (more below).
Is it good for the economy?
No idea really, I’m not an economist and I wouldn’t believe any economist that tells you otherwise.
Donald Trump defaulted on his business dealings multiple times and have in the past floated the idea that the US Gov’t might just default on its debt, so we know that either by providence or occasion, the United States might just file for bankruptcy.
My understanding is pretty much the entirety of present day global economic model is based on the assumption that the US Gov’t will never default, so there’s that. Realistically, I’d say another Dollar downgrade is already in the works.
Domestically, President Trump promised to repeal Obamacare and Dodd-Frank, both significant, expensive and potentially disruptive to the US economy. His immigration policy is likely to impact negatively on the US tech industry and with guys like Peter Thiel on his side, I expect President Trump to politicize Silicon Valley a lot more the money. It’s past due that the US Tech Money to go mainstream, much like the Petro Dollar fueled American adventurism in the ’80s.
Internationally, President Trump had promised to dismantle the various trade agreements, installing protectionist measures and recalibrating the US international trade policies against adversarial states like China and Mexico.
His disinterest in renewable energy and environmentally friendly policies might be a boon for the oily countries but frankly, I can’t see The Don making too many friends in the Middle East.
Whatever happens, a rebalancing of the global economy is already in the works. Portfolios rearranged, assets reallocated and new risk vectors reassessed. In some places, the impact will be immediate and severe, however temporary but overall it would take a while for the world to reorient itself to Donald Trump.
For emerging countries like Indonesia, this will present a particularly nasty challenge as the next 3–6 months being hardest to predict with any degree of accuracy. Already the sudden capital outflow and currency trades forced Bank of Indonesia to intervene this week — just as US market closed at record highs.
What about the American wars?
Among the wonderful powers that came with American presidency, the most powerful one rests on the Commander in Chief of the mightiest military machine that history had ever seen, ever.
Donald Trump seemed to think that this is not enough and he pledged to expand and increase American military spending (which is a good thing for a small number of very crazy people).
The war against ISIS is now entering a new phase with the Battle of Mosul in Iraq, a city of millions and an already well involved US military contingent. Within a somewhat loosely coordinated coalition, the battle seems manageable although nobody is expecting an easy victory in Iraq, many believes the most intense phase is just about to come — they’re barely at the city limit at the moment.
In Syria, things are exponentially more complicated. Something like, 10–15 different countries are operating in the different parts of Syria and eventually they would all converge on Raqqa, the ISIS capital and shits will get real. Much have been made about how friendly Donald Trump is to Vladimir Putin but the prospect of Russian and American soldiers (and warplanes) shooting things in the same combat zone will complicate historians for times to come in sorting out what happened really in 2017. Shit happens.
Beyond ISIS, the threats of violent radicals will not recede in the foreseeable future. President Trump’s aggressive policies against immigrants and hard lined approach to conflict resolution will be motivational for the next generation violent radicals. Everyone from ISIS lone wolves to Narco-Cartel operators to disillusioned super-hackers will recover their mojos and restate with great conviction their moral superiority on the Jihad against the United States of Trumpistan.
So it’s all bad then?
No, not quite. I’m not that bad.
Much of the presidency of Mr. Trump will be determined by how the everyone react and adapt to his presidency: How the American’s revered system of a Government of-the-people-by-the-people coped with the fact that they’ve put a crazy person on the throne (honestly, Donald Trump reminds me of the reign of Joffrey Baratheon).
Vladimir Putin’s Russia will be quick to work on their feet, the wars in Syria and Ukraine are the most immediate sandbox but so will be NATO’s north-eastern borders. Trump said he would ask more money from NATO. Without the UK, this will be the first time in the century that the Anglo-Saxon world has become so fractured. Europe will have to figure out what it wants and so far it’s not looking pretty. Europe has its own distinguished history with mentally unhinged rulers.
In the Middle East, America might well be less engaged directly on the ground against its various pre-determined enemies but I’ve an inkling that Mr. Trump is about to unleash the kraken.
Post-Reagan America had always been the humiliated victor. The nation had spent too much time in self restraint and with The Donald in place, American Military Industrial Complex will once again be returned to its rightful godly place. The world will be a more violent.
In Asia, China will undoubtedly make the most of it. The only other country benefitting more than Russia in the ascension of Donald Trump is the unfettered China. Japan — with a new emperor — will realize quick that they could not rely on the orange man for security in Asia and a new arms race will begin in earnest.
In Korea, well, the South will probably go along the line of Japan, but nobody really understand the North and I won’t pretend to. Mr. Kim Jong Un might just nuke Seoul to test Mr. Trump and see what happens.
President Duterte of the Philippines was explicit in ending the close relationship with America and realigning the nation with China. That leaves Donald Trump to (maybe) play with Indonesia, he seemed quite friendly with our (infinitely bottomless) Speaker of DPR as well as a number of investment. With the right approach, Indonesia might just reestablish a new phase of relationship with the US of A, but I’m not too hopeful of President Jokowi of making it out in any useful manner. Too much incompetence in the abundance of mediocrity, it will make for a bad potion.
In the event that The Donald is not sufficiently interested in Indonesia, America is likely to retract forcefully from Obama’s commitment to Asia leaving the region at the mercy of China and Russia.
God have mercy on us, we’ve never been here before.
