Introducing Numerai Crypto: The Future of Cryptocurrency Market Prediction

Numerai has long been at the forefront of decentralized and crowdsourced prediction markets. In 2017, we launched our token, Numeraire (NMR) — when ETH was valued at just $12. We have gathered thousands of the brightest data scientists from around the world who collectively stake over $13 million worth of NMR on our platform every day. We execute thousands of machine learning models daily, producing over 10 billion global equity predictions annually. We created MMC, an advanced metric for assessing a model’s contribution to an ensemble, providing the ability to identify unique signal performance.

These pioneering efforts, embodied in Numerai and Signals, have set the standard for prediction markets — inspiring numerous projects within this rapidly evolving space. The scale of Numerai’s prediction markets are unmatched, influencing over $2 billion of trade volume in global equities in 2024 alone.

But… Why the stock market?

Perhaps it’s because the stock market is well-established and trends are well-studied… or maybe it has the simplest and highest-quality data ripe for machine learning. Perhaps it’s because Numerai’s community has found success in predicting the stock market and we’re comfortable.

Is the stock market the only place that crowdsourced intelligence can be successful? And is the Meta Model only ever going to be the private IP of Numerai?

No.

Today, for the first time, Numerai has created a new prediction platform where anybody can predict the future of cryptocurrency:

Numerai Crypto

Imagine you are about to make a trade. Your cursor hovering over the sell button relying on recent articles amidst a “broad market sell-off”. When, suddenly, you see a live feed of the future. Imagine this feed was built by the best data scientists on Numerai who can use any data source and any AI technique to train their models — the best predictions from thousands of models have been merged together and delivered to you. Imagine this feed predicts the over- and under-performers of the market in coming weeks.

Numerai has not only imagined this scenario… we have lived it. And starting today, we are releasing the Numerai Crypto Meta Model free of charge for the next twelve months — now you can live it too.

View the future of cryptocurrencies now.

Numerai Crypto Is The Frontier

While our existing platforms focus entirely on the traditional stock market, we have long considered the crypto market to be intriguing. With Numerai Crypto, our goals are as follows:

• Provide our community with a new and compelling challenge — While the search space of stock market signals is far from exhausted, we want to discover how much alpha our community can generate in crypto. Furthermore, Numerai is dedicated to strengthening and expanding the community that built our Hedge Fund — by providing a third use-case for NMR we increase trust and utility.
• Enhance the predictability of the crypto market — The cryptocurrency market is relatively undiscovered. What is leading to this “broad sell-off” and will the market recover quickly? Reliable factor models have yet to be developed and high quality data providers are scarce, so questions are hard to answer. We aim to change that.
• Return the power of collective intelligence to the world — Until now, only Numerai could harness the power of our crowdsourced predictions. By releasing the Numerai Crypto Meta Model, we will share this power with the world.

Although Numerai will not use participants’ predictions or the Numerai Crypto Meta Model to trade, observing it will be fascinating. Crypto hedge funds, retail investors, MEV searchers, and all other market participants may be keen to review a public feed of the future. We are eager to see how well the Numerai community can predict the cryptocurrency market and whether individuals or organizations will use these predictions to inform their trading decision or risk management.

Join the Future of Crypto

Numerai Crypto offers a new way to challenge yourself, learn about data science, impact the future of cryptocurrency, and potentially earn (or burn) NMR. Here’s how you can get involved:

• Sign Up: Visit Numerai Crypto and create an account to join. With this account you can participate in the hardest data science tournaments in the world.
• Download Data: We have created a universe of liquid cryptocurrencies and used it to generate a historical raw return target. This target represents the ranked returns our universe experienced over a subsequent 4-week period. Your task is to find the right predictive data your model can use to learn relative returns of tokens over time.
• Predict and Submit: Each day, predict the future ranked returns of our universe. Use our website or API (via packages like NumerAPI or RNumerai) to upload your predictions. Our API will validate your submission. Here is an example of what a submission looks like:

• Observe: Scoring begins about a week after you submit your predictions and occurs over the course of the following month as we compare your predictions against the actual cryptocurrency market. Watch how your model performs over this period. After four weeks, scores will be finalized, and your model will be placed on the Numerai Crypto leaderboard.
• Stake: Optionally stake NMR on your predictions to earn (or burn) based on your performance. This is not required, and you should only stake on models you trust. The averaged predictions of all staked participants will form the Numerai Crypto Meta Model.
• Explore and Share: Join the Numerai Community on our Forum and Discord to explore, experiment, and share ideas about machine learning and crypto market strategies.

You can read more about Numerai Crypto in the docs.

Soon

The Numerai Crypto 2024 season will soon begin, offering you the opportunity to compete for the title of Numerai Grandmaster. Climb the leaderboard, improve your models, and discover unique data to stand out in the community.

We will also begin releasing example models and open sourcing the code used to generate our token universe and targets. We hope this will allow Numerai and data scientists competing in Numerai Crypto to collaboratively improve it, creating the best possible crypto prediction market in the world.

Numerai does not trade cryptocurrencies, and Numerai’s Hedge Fund(s) have no relation to Numerai Crypto. The Numerai Crypto tournament is an experimental competition, and the Numerai Crypto Meta Model is not investment advice nor is it intended to be used for trading decisions. The release of the model and the tracking of its performance are for informational and entertainment purposes only. Numerai is not liable for any financial decisions made by individuals or organizations based on the Numerai Crypto Meta Model.