Feeding The Masses While Saving The Planet
Ten billion. A number that for many is difficult to comprehend or put into perspective. A number on such a large scale that it most likely requires double checking just to ensure the correct amount of zeroes are listed. However, the world should start getting used to that number, because this is what the population of planet Earth is projected to reach by 2050. With only 32 years to go before the population reaches this level, experts have made one thing extremely clear: if the planet is to sustain itself under this pressure, serious efforts have to be made to accommodate this change with regard to food production.
It is a widely accepted fact that our food system has great impact on the ecology and environment. Food consumption and manufacturing contributes negatively to climate change and biodiversity. As a result, this increase in the world’s population by the year 2050 is estimated to have devastating effects on the planet. According to research led by Marco Springmann at the University of Oxford, if the food production and consumption system is not adapted to manage this dramatic change in population, the planet will simply not be able to cope. Ultimately, the needs of the people will surpass the environment’s ability to meet them. In order to mitigate these negative impacts on the environment, Springmann’s team investigated several sustainable changes that could be made not only in the way that food is produced, but also in the way that it is consumed.
…if the food production and consumption system is not adapted to manage this dramatic change in population, the planet will simply not be able to cope.
The team’s research published in Nature outlines three areas in which changes need to be made: food management, technology, and diets. Firstly, the way food is managed needs to adapt to the growing population. Approximately one-third of food that is produced is either lost before it reaches marketplaces or wasted by households. Therefore, managing this wastage is one key to stepping foot onto a more sustainable and environmentally friendly path. The research team investigated how the environmental burden would decrease if food loss and waste could be reduced by 50 as well as 75 percent. They found that even reducing the loss by 50 percent could alleviate environmental pressure by about six to 16 percent, while cutting losses by 75 percent could reduce pressure by nine to 24 percent.
Another key area explored was related to food technology and practices. Improving technology can not only help make food production more efficient, but can make methods more environmentally friendly. For example, using technology to increase agricultural yield allows for less use of cropland, which would limit the overall environmental habitat loss. Additionally, increasing nitrogen use efficiency and phosphorous recycling can lessen the effects of nitrogen and phosphorus leeching into air and water. By implementing these changes as well as others that were identified in the analysis, the team estimated that technological modifications could potentially reduce environmental pressures by approximately three to 30 percent in moderately ambitious scenarios. On the other hand, scenarios that considered these changes on an even more ambitious level could potentially reduce pressures by 11 to 54 percent.
Finally, one of the major areas that Springmann and his team identified as needing improvement was overall dietary choices. Their research showed that if the overall population were to make food choices that were healthier, this would make a difference, particularly if there was a shift away from animal products. It’s known that processing animal products and making them ready for consumption involve methods that are environmentally detrimental. Large-scale farming practices involve the use of things like pesticides, fertilizer, and fuel, all of which contribute to the addition of harmful chemicals to the air and water. Researchers estimated that if the current global dietary guidelines on restricted red meat consumption were followed, greenhouse gas emissions could hopefully be reduced by 29 percent. Additionally, if a scenario where more plant-based diets were to be adopted, these emissions could even be reduced by 56 percent.
Bringing these practices to a more sustainable place is crucial and must happen now, because by 2050 the lives of 10 billion people will depend on it.
Most notably, the researchers pointed out that just incorporating changes in one of these areas would not be enough to avoid surpassing the environment’s threshold for providing for the population. They identified that if these solutions were applied in combination with each other, the potential reduction in environmental pressure could be even greater. The bottom line is that if the planet is to have the capacity to deliver what we need from it on the required scale, the impact of food management and consumption must be considered. Bringing these practices to a more sustainable place is crucial and must happen now, because by 2050 the lives of 10 billion people will depend on it.
DOI: 10.1038/s41586–018–0594–0
