Analyzing the Economic Impact of COVID-19 on New York City

This is the inaugural publication of the COVID Data Analysis series by NYC Opportunity’s Poverty Research Team. This series will explore the US Census Bureau's Pulse Data to help assess COVID-19’s impact as the pandemic evolves.

Photo Credit: Martin Sanchez via Unsplash

It has been six months since the COVID-19 shutdown began in New York City. The initial loss of jobs and wages and the impact on businesses was devastating. The unemployment rate soared from 3.4% in February to, at the highest point to date, 20.3 percent in June. We have since progressed to a cautious Phase 4 of re-opening, and the unemployment rate has begun to decline modestly.¹

In late April, the U.S. Census Bureau began collecting weekly household data through the Household Pulse Survey.² The survey filled an urgent need for timely data on employment, income, disrupted education plans, housing and food security. This is the first in a series of blog posts presenting NYC Opportunity’s analysis of the Household Pulse Survey data. The purpose is to explore where we have been and how the economic situation is changing as the pandemic evolves. The data helps to answer such questions as

• “Did employment improve when restaurants began to re-open?”
• “How many households lost at least some employment income?”
• “How has childcare affected the ability to return to work?”

NYC Opportunity is analyzing this data for the New York City metropolitan region. We include the five boroughs of New York City as well as Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, and Putnam counties.³

Almost as soon as the pandemic began, it was clear that already-existing economic inequalities would intensify. In addition, economically stable workers faced a newly precarious future as entire industries shut down. The Pulse data gives a sense of differences in how different groups fared, including by race, sex, and age.

KEY FINDINGS

The first round of our research covers the period from April 23 to July 21, 2020. Some of our key findings:

• Jobs and income losses were widespread, but not equally distributed
• At different phases of business reopening, job recovery differed for different groups, although the situation has improved for most groups
• Workers with a high school education or less and Asian workers remain particularly hard hit
• The ability to work from home is particularly important in determining outcomes
• Job recovery is happening faster than income recovery
• The intersections of race, gender, industry, occupation, and education are key to understanding many of the different outcomes in the recovery to date
• Women are leaving the labor force for childcare reasons at greater rates as the recovery continues. This is especially true for middle-income white mothers

Timeline of Reopening by Industry and Phases

We group the Pulse weekly data into three time periods, with the average weekly data shown for each.⁴ The data represents the time of the initial shutdown, Phases 1 and 2 of reopening and Phases 3 and 4 of reopening. The dates for each are:

• Pre-opening (survey weeks 1–5): April 23 — June 2
• Phases 1/2 (survey weeks 6–9): June 4 — June 30
• Phases 3/4 (survey weeks 10–12): July 2 — July 21

The two figures below summarize the changes in job loss and income at three different points between April 23rd and July 21st, 2020.

Job Loss

Figure 1: Percent of job loss among adults in the Greater NYC area

Figure 1: Pulse survey respondents were asked if they experienced job loss during the past seven days. The first line of the table shows that 27 percent of respondents reported job loss prior to Phase 1 of re-opening (blue dot). This fell to 20% by Phase 1/2 of reopening (red dot), and remained essentially the same in Phase 3/4 (green dot). The solid color of the dots denotes statistically significant changes from the Phase 1 data point.

Other notable findings in the job loss data:

• Individuals without high school education had the highest rate of job loss, approximately 45% at the start of quarantine. But their rate of job loss declined sharply as the city re-opened. Future releases of this post will explore the characteristics of this group, including the industries where they are employed.
• Asian workers have fared the least well. Their initial reported job loss in April of over 30 percent is not significantly different from job loss reported by July. They are overrepresented in the food service and personal care sectors.
• Upper-income workers and homeowners were least affected by job loss and both groups had statistically significant improvements with minimal job loss by July. There are similarities between these two populations. Upper-income workers are more likely to be able to work from home.

Wage Loss

Figure 2: Percent of adults reporting households experiencing wage loss

Figure 2: Pulse respondents were asked if anyone in their household had experienced wage loss since March 13, 2020. It is immediately apparent that wage loss is more severe than job loss, with 60% of respondents reporting wage loss in their household by Phase 3/4. Further, there is little statistically significant change in wage loss from April to July, as indicated by the lighter shaded dots. For most groups, wage loss from Phases 1/2 and 3/4 are similar and neither is different from the pre-opening rate of wage loss.

Pulse respondents were asked about wage loss for any member of their household. This is different from Figure 1, where the survey only asked about a respondent’s personal experience with job loss. While nearly 20 percent of respondents reported job loss citywide in Phase 3/4, up to 60 percent reported wage loss in their household. Many respondents who didn’t lose their jobs still saw a decline in their household income.

The initial findings shown here indicate that some subgroups, notably Asians and those with less than a college degree, experienced prolonged job and income disruption. As the City entered into Phase 4 of reopening, individuals in many groups, not just the most disadvantaged, experienced income loss in their household despite ongoing employment.

The NYC Opportunity COVID Data Analysis Series

This series will continue to explore the Pulse data. In the current environment of persistently high unemployment, widespread income loss, and the absence of comprehensive stimulus benefits, it is important to monitor timely, detailed data. The Pulse data is one important tool that will help us to assess COVID-19’s impact as the pandemic evolves.

Material for this post was created by Jihyun Shin and Anne Hill. Contact: Jshin@opportunity.nyc.gov

For more information on the Pulse data, including future releases, and NYC Opportunity’s use of the data see the NYCOpportunity website.

The Poverty Research Team at NYC Opportunity is responsible for the development of the NYCgov Poverty Measure. The alternative NYC poverty measure, in comparison to the official U.S. measure of poverty.

The work has received nationwide attention and contributed to the development of the Federal Supplemental Poverty Measure.

[1] New York State Department of Labor, New York City Labor Force Data, Seasonally Adjusted. The unemployment rate dropped slightly in July to 19.8%.

[2] https://www.census.gov/data/experimental-data-products/household-pulse-survey.html

[3] “About the Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey” for more information on county selection.