Mayor Announces Up to 475,000 Immigrant New Yorkers Could Be Harmed by Trump’s “Public Charge” Proposal

The proposal could also result in at least $420 million in economic losses to the City every year.

The Trump Administration’s proposal to expand the “public charge” test for immigrants, if finalized and implemented, will cause serious harm to both citizen and noncitizen New Yorkers, according to an analysis by the Mayor’s Office for Economic Opportunity (NYC Opportunity). The proposed rule could directly affect as many as 475,000 immigrants and chill participation in a range of programs and benefits for many more New Yorkers, including U.S. citizen children, as families might withdraw from or forego enrolling in critical social safety net programs based on misinformation and fear of immigration consequences. (NYC Opportunity used the 2016 one-year American Community Survey (ACS) Public Use Microdata Sample as augmented by the methodology used for the City’s NYC Government Poverty Measure to estimate the impact on the City.)

Under the recently proposed federal guidelines — which expand significantly on long-standing federal “public charge” rules — immigrants who legally use programs like food assistance and Section 8 housing vouchers could be denied permanent residence (i.e. a green card) or certain visas. Older immigrants may lose prescription drug benefits from the Medicare Part D program.

The new guidelines would be applied mostly to those who are trying to adjust their status to permanent residence from a less permanent immigration status. Nevertheless, many immigrant New Yorkers may withdraw from or forgo benefits that they are entitled to due to misinformation about the scope of the public charge test and the Administration’s proposed expansion. For example, many immigrants with permanent residence could erroneously believe that their citizenship applications could be affected if they use public benefits.

• The rule could directly and immediately cause about 75,000 immigrant New Yorkers to face a choice between lawful access to public benefits and potential future immigration consequences.
• In addition, there are nearly 400,000 immigrant New Yorkers who are not receiving or are not necessarily eligible for public benefits who face potential future immigration consequences simply because of their age, health, education and employment history, income and assets, and other factors.
• In New York City alone, a 20% withdrawal rate among noncitizen clients in receipt of SNAP (food assistance), Cash Assistance, or SSI would result in an estimated loss of $235 million in these benefits to them.

Given the complexity of this draft rule, and the fact that benefits not directly administered by the City are also included in it, we anticipate that the overall fiscal impact will be greater. These losses would flow from the reduced economic activity of the affected population, such as diminished spending, lower business revenue, and losses in job creation.

Read the Mayor’s Office press release here.