Artificial Intelligence: A threat or a companion?
The debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence has been heating up in recent years. Since the successful launch of ChatGPT, concerns regarding job replacement have been spread among not only recent college graduates but also experienced workers. It perhaps began with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019 which prompted an unprecedented surge in demand for technological solutions to address the challenges posed by the crisis. Generative AI, with its capacity for creative problem-solving and adaptability to changing working conditions, was embraced by companies looking to maximize productivity while also mitigating the risks introduced by this global health crisis.
However, what was once an exciting technological breakthrough/innovation has now transformed into an alarming threat to job seekers, not only in the tech industry but also in healthcare, automotive, manufacturing, and beyond. AI is reshaping the entire labor market, signaling that the future of work will no longer be the same as what we have seen throughout history.
AI: A VALUABLE COMPANION
From a catalyst for increased efficiency and productivity to a smart assistant in data analysis, decision-making, and problem-solving, AI serves various purposes in our lives and brings benefits to people in various industries.
Boost productivity and innovation
According to Meredith Somers, at the MIT Sloan School of Management, “Generative AI can improve a highly skilled worker’s performance by as much as 40% compared with workers who don’t use it” [1]. Generative AI significantly bolsters productivity among workers by automating routine tasks and enabling employees to focus on more complex and strategic aspects of their roles. Natural language processing and machine learning are classic examples of how AI fosters more efficient decision-making processes. Additionally, the ability of AI to analyze vast datasets and provide unique insights also empowers workers with valuable information, hence, enhancing their efficiency.
As depicted in figure 1, research conducted by Goldman Sachs provides even more compelling evidence that AI tools “could drive a 7% (or almost $7 trillion) increase in global GDP and lift productivity growth by 1.5 percentage points over a 10-year period” [2].
Autonomous vehicles at the heart of traffic safety
Inclusive, affordable, safe, and sustainable are the words we use to describe autonomous vehicles. With the advent of self-driving technology, mobility services have become available to a broader demographic, including those who are physically and mentally disabled. The elimination of the need for a human driver not only reduces labor costs but also enhances safety by minimizing the risk of human errors. In fact, according to Bernard Marr — the author of the best-selling book Generative AI in Practice: 100+ Amazing Ways Generative Artificial Intelligence is Changing Business and Society, “statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) show that driver error is by far the biggest cause of road traffic accidents” [3]. Therefore, with advanced sensors and artificial intelligence technologies that are not affected by human errors, autonomous vehicles significantly reduce road safety concerns among drivers.
Furthermore, the utilization of autonomous vehicles would contribute to increased productivity since commuting time can be utilized for work or other activities, leading to more effective use of an individual’s time and a boost in overall economic productivity.
THE THREAT OF THE FORESEEABLE REPLACEMENT
Despite the aforementioned benefits, the advancement of AI also raises concerns and potential threats to humans.
Job polarization
Job polarization refers to the decline in middle-skill occupations such as manufacturing and production roles, juxtaposed with growth at the extremes of the skill spectrum: high-skill managerial positions and low-skill jobs involving assistance or care.
In assessing the cause of this phenomenon, we investigate issues surrounding automation and the integration of robots in the manufacturing industries. Tasks that are routine and repetitive, often associated with middle-skill occupations, have been more susceptible to automation. As a result, the demand for routine-based jobs has decreased, leading to a decline in middle-skill occupations.
Conversely, high-skill occupations that involve complex problem-solving, decision-making, and creativity have seen growth as these tasks are less easily automated.
Furthermore, low-skill occupations that require interpersonal skills, empathy, and hands-on work, such as healthcare and service jobs, have expanded. This is because these roles are less susceptible to automation and are usually complementary to the capabilities of robots.
Figure 2 was derived from research conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Saint Louis in which “economists Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo studied the effects of the rapid increase in the use of manufacturing robots on the labor market” [4]. Here, the blue and orange lines represent non-routine occupations such as management, healthcare, and food preparation while the gray and yellow lines represent routine occupations such as office work, transportation, and construction. As we can see, from 1983 to 2016, “employment in nonroutine occupations, both cognitive and manual, has been increasing steadily for several decades, while employment in routine occupations has been mostly stagnant or even declining” [4]. This illustrates the job replacement effect of automation on routine jobs that leads to a decline in middle-skill occupations and a job market that is polarized into the extremes of the skill spectrum.
Autonomous vehicles: exploring the economics and the ethics
The most immediate phenomenon of job loss is seen in the driving industry where the widespread adoption of self-driving technology threatens the livelihoods of millions of professional drivers, including taxi drivers, truckers, and delivery personnel [4]. As autonomous vehicles are designed to operate without human intervention, the demand for human drivers will decline significantly, leading to unemployment. Furthermore, the shift towards autonomous vehicles will also disrupt the job market in car insurance and repair. With the potential reduction in accidents due to the improved safety features of autonomous driving, the demand for auto insurance adjusters and repair technicians could decrease, impacting employment opportunities in these sectors. There has been news about autonomous vehicle producers providing their insurance services to customers at a much lower price than their competitors, leading to negative impacts on individual car insurance providers [5].
Moreover, an article by Frits Klaver, a senior manager at KPMG Sustainability, points out an interesting ethical aspect of autonomous driving and states that “moral decisions will need to be made, for instance, when choosing between who will be killed in a crash: the pedestrian crossing the street, or the passenger in the vehicle (called self-sacrifice)” [5]. While programmers certainly take into account these ethical questions while building algorithms, public debates will arise surrounding the question of who has the authority to decide the life and death of individuals. In other words, the foreseeable domination of autonomous driving will prove to be multifaceted with ethical dilemmas that would require deliberate discussions.
Technology Only Gets Better, But Humans…? Not So Much
Think of the telephone revolution. In 1876, we began with the first practical device developed by Alexander Graham Bell that allowed for the transmission of sound over distances through electrical signals. Then the 20th century witnessed the development of the Western Electric Model 500 — a rotary dial with a user-friendly interface, that simplified the process of making calls. Following this, in 1992, we had the Nokia 1011, the first digital handheld phone, making it more portable and accessible. This evolution of telecommunication technologies went on until the first Apple iPhone was launched in 2007, underscoring the remarkable transformation of the telephone into a versatile modern device.
The same will be true of AI technology: it will improve over time until we reach a point where humans are no longer needed. From the early days of expert systems, such as MYCIN, which mimicked human expertise in specific domains, to the advent of machine learning algorithms like Support Vector Machines in the 1990s, AI has continuously pushed the boundaries of what computers can achieve. More recently, the rise of deep learning has revolutionized fields such as computer vision and natural language processing, with breakthroughs like AlexNet dramatically improving image classification accuracy. [6] These advancements illustrate the relentless pursuit of greater intelligence and capability in AI, fueling optimism about its potential to tackle more and more complex problems in human lives. In brief, as AI technology progresses, it is conceivable that there will come a point where the capabilities of artificial intelligence surpass those of humans, raising questions about the necessity of human involvement in many situations.
THE ANSWER WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR
One of the fascinating aspects of AI in specific and technology, in general, is the fact that we can never put a definite label on its future. Advocates argue that AI will streamline processes, boost productivity, and create new opportunities, ultimately contributing to economic growth. On the other hand, skeptics express apprehension, contending that the widespread implementation of AI could result in unemployment among other issues. Therefore, it is perhaps the lens through which we perceive this matter that will shape its future.
If so, then let’s consider it from a historical perspective: when the first steam engine or computer was invented, were we threatened by the prospect of them replacing human jobs, the same way we currently are with AI? AI, at the end of the day, is just another technological breakthrough on the same continuum as the light bulb, steam engine, printing press, internet, and the telephone. If we had succumbed to fear with these previous inventions, we would never have reached our current stage of advancement. Perhaps the threat seems more significant now because AI is considerably more powerful than our previous inventions, making it more likely to negatively impact humans. However, I believe that as our civilization progresses, we will demand more and more powerful tools, a need that AI will fulfill.
Moreover, I strongly believe that the world operates based on the principle of scarcity as emphasized in economics. As AI increasingly dominates the job market, there will come a point where human service will become the “new luxury,” therefore, driving up the price and value of any service that involves human interaction. In other words, the scenario of humans being entirely replaced by AI is highly unlikely.
REFERENCES
[1] Meredith Somers, How generative AI can boost highly skilled workers’ productivity, 2023
[2] Goldman Sachs, Generative AI could raise global GDP by 7%, 2023
[3] Bernard Marr, 5 Ways Self-Driving Cars Could Make Our World (And Our Lives) Better, 2020
[4] Asha Bharadwaj , Maximiliano A. Dvorkin, The Rise of Automation: How Robots May Impact the U.S. Labor Market, 2019
[5] Frits Klaver, The economic and social impacts of fully autonomous vehicles, 2020
[6] Tanya Roy, https://opencv.org/blog/history-of-ai/ , 2023
[7] Tulie Finley-Moise, https://www.hp.com/gb-en/shop/tech-takes/ways-openai-is-changing-the-world, 2020