Why are so many long-time New Yorkers abandoning the city?
By Mark Istvan Ledeczi-Domonkos
Over 2 million people have left NYC, “The Capital of the World” since 2010, mostly long-time residents (Mark Ledeczi-Domonkos and Isa Lauchengco/NYU)
For more than a century the Alberti family has prospered in New York. Robert Alberti, 50, was born and raised in Brooklyn, just like his father, and his father’s father before him.
Yet, in 2014, Alberti felt “forced” to leave New York City. His Italian-style restaurant and life’s work, Pizza Port, had been embroiled in a conflict with NYC authorities for years. “First, they told me to take the seats out of the restaurant, because the space was too small.” he said. “But then the city demanded that I expand my kitchen and only do take-out. They were losing me money and customers.”
After two years of resisting the regulations through courts and local meetings, Alberti said he finally gave up. “The regulations, the costs, the taxes, it was just too much.”
Alberti isn’t the only person who has issues with New York City’s economy. Since 2010, more than a million residents have left the city, the equivalent of 277 people leaving every day. Most of them list high costs of living and bad job quality as their top grievances, and almost three-quarters of those leaving have a reason related to the economy. It’s also become a hot topic on the campaign trail for NY governor, with Republican-candidate Lee Zeldin making economic reform a central part of his platform.
The wave of emigration out of the Big Apple may have gotten attention during COVID, when multiple big media outlets reported that over 90,000 people left. The reality is that native New Yorkers have been leaving the city since the Great Recession. New York’s population is still technically growing due to global immigration and birth rates, but its natives are gradually leaving, with 1.5 million exiting the metropolitan area between 2010 and 2019.
The net loss of domestic migration in NYC has been startling since 2010. Even with foreign migration, NYC is one of the fastest declining U.S cities (Graph: Mark Istvan Ledeczi-Domonkos/NYU, Data: Weissman Center for International Business/Baruch College)
Heather Jameson, 42, was one of these natives. Having lived in the five boroughs her whole life, she set out for greener pastures in 2010. “When my husband got a job in Clarksville, Tennessee, we couldn’t say no,” she said. “With lower costs and higher wages it’s so much easier to make a living.”
Despite moving to Tennessee because of an opening at a manager-level construction job– her husband’s expertise– Jameson commented on how easy it was to find a job in her own field as well. “As a nurse, I almost got hired on the spot,” she noted. “With the city growing so much they are looking for workers everywhere, not just in healthcare, but also all kinds of other services and industries…Within a year I was making more than I was in New York with lower taxes and prices. We even bought a house, something we could barely imagine in New York City.”
Mrs. Jameson also observed that many of her friends from New York have moved as well. “They all found great jobs and are really happy,” she remarked. “They all felt [that] it was a better decision for their families.”
Katherine Stalanowski, 46, is a Polish immigrant, interior designer, and mom with two kids. She echoes Jameson’s sentiments regarding family values. “Kids need…the safety…of a private backyard” she exclaimed. “It is impossible to give them the space they need to do well here…with an average income”
Stalanowski’s clientele includes many big-name celebrities and millionaires, and she needs New York’s concentration of high-class populations to make money, yet, after more than a decade of living in Manhattan, she made the decision to move to New Jersey in 2012.
“The commute is worth it,” she claimed. “I get to watch my kids grow up in a big house… and in better public schools…with much lower costs”. NYC has some outstanding public schools, but accessibility is a huge issue. The best public schools are in upper-class neighbourhoods, with rent prices sky-high. As Stalanowski indicates, suburbs also have good public schools, but at a much more affordable cost of living for the average person.
“If I wanted to get the same quality of living in NYC it would probably cost me four times as much.” Stalanowski concluded.
Stalanowski’s economic woes line up with recent trends, as New York City is the most expensive city, not just in the United States, but in all of the Americas.
Dr. John Tepper Marlin, Professor at the NYU Stern School of Business, former NYC Comptroller, and author of multiple urban economics texts, weighed in on the problem at hand: “The issue is a complicated one, but for the most part New York is not concerned” he declared.
The NYU professor noted that most domestic emigration can be easily replaced by foreign immigration. Immigrants fill labour shortages and open new local businesses.
However, there are some irreplaceable jobs that require higher education in “industries exporting to other areas like finance or entertainment, and the services connected to them, like advertising or tech. These are very important because they allow the city to pay for importing supplies like food.” he emphasised. “But these businesses are still reliant on the city. [Their employees] may have moved out [of NYC] but only to surrounding regions like Long Island for residential purposes or they have left the state to do work remotely but keep their company here. All the investment is still in the city”
However, Dr. Marlin has one notable caveat, “some are concerned about taxes” he warns. “With a worse economy and less people, revenues and wages could go down, which affects city taxes.” Out-of-state employees (especially higher-income ones) could also hurt the city tax base, as they pay some portion of their taxes to their residential community. “Lower taxes paid could damage public service quality and lower the city council’s ability to introduce new infrastructure.”
Despite people increasingly leaving, economists like Dr. Marlin tell us that New York City will continue to be what it always has been, a centre of key industries and a melting pot of peoples. But it isn’t the city for everyone, those prioritising children or working in certain sectors of the economy, may find it difficult. For others, the city will continue to be an international locus and focal point of opportunity. However, it will be up to future generations to solve the possible externalities of emigration, including a dissipating tax base and growing foreign populace.
