A Brazilian Prophet for this Century
Originalmente publicado no The Strand Review, da King's College.
“I do not think that whoever wins or whoever loses, whoever wins and whoever loses, will win or lose. Everyone will lose.”
— EX-PRESIDENT OF BRAZIL, DILMA ROUSSEFF
It would seem that the old thesis of “business as usual” has finally hit the rocks. Over the past ten years, the tightening control of the Communist Party in China, and its increasing grip on power (both internally and externally) has led to a confrontational situation with the United States (US). The Economist has suggested in its “The World Ahead 2022” edition that the US-China conflict will shape the post-Covid world. Indeed, many speak of a new Cold War, although I think that is not quite the case.
China and the US look very much like each other’s nemesis, but that is a consequence of their systems and principles. They are opposed, but why should one triumph?
I am reminded of a quote (see above) from a particularly senseless ex-president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, who has given many bizarre speeches. But unbeknownst at the time, they now seem prophetic. One of Rousseff’s quotes was included in the epigraph, and the “everyone will lose” part is particularly relevant as it reminds me of ancient wars. Although The Economist refers to “The Thucydides Trap” — I am personally more sympathetic to Prof. Oliveira Martin’s perspective that Rome is the political paradigm of all time.
America beat — metaphorically — the Soviet Union. Rome beat Carthage. But once power was assumed, Rome did not sing the requiem of Parthia. For two centuries, the Roman-Parthian Wars resulted in a stalemate. Rome came apart with its internal economic and social problems, as America seems to be doing now. Parthia became weakened by the conflict, leading to a civil war that would birth the Sasanian Empire. And even after that, the rivalry continued to eat away at both parties even after the fall of Rome, when the East became what is now known as the Byzantine Empire.
The powerful spend little time looking for a rival, for there is always someone who wants the power for themselves. The contest Mr. Biden has proclaimed against autocracies is here indeed, and it is a defining attribute of our time. However, it is unlikely to have a clear end.
Everyone will lose, as stated, but that does not mean the contest should be avoided. A greater loss will be incurred by a contestant that does not take the situation seriously. And it is very much an internal matter. The American system seems all too slow when compared to the Chinese. Too slow to deal with rising social tensions. And it is very much doubtful that Mr. Biden’s policies will solve things. On the monetary side, inflation also seems to be a worry for the near future, especially while it is still uncertain if it could become stagflation.
China, on the other hand, has been losing its growth momentum. Since 2006, its yearly growth has been in clear descent. Thankfully for the Communist Party, economic prosperity is no longer necessary for maintaining power. Or so it has said. The 14th Five-Year plan does specify a growth goal, for instance. Along with that, a new policy focused on “common prosperity” seems to have created an economic issue. The cutting down of corporate titans and the antitrust campaign may show to be bad incentives. Combined with maintenance of great and lasting pandemic restrictions, China should find itself looking more like an actual socialist economy.
In sum, it looks very much like conflict has no winners. However, if reason serves, we should know by now: history is not dictated by eternity. As Heraclitus said of a river (“no man steps on the same river twice”), no man, no peoples, nor States hold the same place twice.
