Crypto Investor Report, September 10
Summary
The daily descending triangle pattern is still in-play. With Bitcoin oscillating between its edges, back and forth, the result is a narrowing trading channel of increased choppiness.
While the long-term technicals still point to the upside, the mid-term and short-term ones are wearing out and increasing the bearish bias. Still some levels of support for the bulls near the current price action, but more incisive behaviour and aggressiveness are required if they plan to resolve this triangle in line with their expectations.
With Bitcoin retracting its dominance after piercing the 70% level, some altcoins just outperformed it and gained a new breath. Highlight to Cosmos with over 20% of gains, in the week period. Also, Bitcoin’s hash rate is about to set a new record, of 100,000,000 TH/s, in a period where average daily volume regained some strength after some weeks of apparent market apathy. Let’s hope that this pos-vacations period brings out even more interesting news and actionable insights.
In the Spotlight
- Tether launches Digital Yuan before PBoC
- Bakkt launches custodian solution
- LG working on cryptocurrency smartphone
- Catalonia to build DLT-based identity platform for citizens
- Bitcoin’s Hash Rate nearing 100,000,000 TH/s
- Telegram releases code for its TON Blockchain
- Ethereum to test upcoming Istanbul Hard Fork in early October
- NSA reportedly developing quantum-resistant crypto
Market Overview
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency markets has declined, during the past week, from $270 Bn down to $264.5 Bn, a 2% weekly depreciation. The average daily traded volume raised to the $50–60 Bn range during most of the past seven days, after being orbiting in the $40–45 Bn range during the previous week.
Bitcoin’s dominance has been ranging — since early August — in the 68–70% levels. Recently, it has pierced that resistance level and achieved a local maximum of 71.22%. Since then, it has been retracting from that high and has now fallen below 70%, once again.
Looking into the top digital assets and their weekly individual performances, the scenario is a bit cumbersome.
Bitcoin (BTC) had a negative performance, losing over 4.1% in the last seven days period, smashing the previous gains of 5% in the earlier week. At the time this report is being written, BTC is trading at near $10,200.
Bitcoin Cash SV (BSV) and NEM (XEM) were the weekly underperformers. While the former lost over 6.5% to trade now at $126, the latter undervalued 8.5% and is trading now at approximately $0.045.
Cosmos (ATOM) with over 22.5% of gains, was the weekly highlight. The decentralized network of blockchains is now trading at $2.66. EOS (EOS) also had a two-digit weekly growth, to trade now at $3.72.
Regarding the top-20 listing by market capitalization, some permutations in the ordered ranking. EOS (EOS) with its double-digit weekly growth overtook Binance Coin (BNB) in the 6th position. Cardano (ADA) also took advantage of Stellar (XLM) negative performance, gaining a lead for the 10th place.
Cosmos (ATOM) raised in the charts to the 17th position, as a consequence of its strong valorization, while NEM (XEM) fell to the last position in the top-20, a place that has belonged for many weeks to Ontology (ONT).
The number of assets with over $1 Billion of market capitalization is still fixed on twelve, with TRON (TRX) bottoming that list.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin continues to follow its consolidation path and is also narrowing its trading range further and further. During the last week, we have seen an attempt being made to test the upper edge of the Daily Descending Triangle, that has been present for quite some time now. And that attempt got rejected, once again.
Nevertheless, the upward push might still have some fuel left in the tank, as it hints out in our trusty 4-hour chart. If that’s the case, there are two levels of near support that could work out:
- $10,100 level, where sits the most recent candle body low
- $9,700-$9,900 range, where the still in play weekly 38.2 Fibonacci level meets some newer lower-time frame targets.
A close below these zones will certainly point towards a new re-testing of the $9,300 level. And the longer a level gets retested, the weaker it turns out to be.
Looking forward, the bulls don’t have many chances left to display their strength. The long-term bias is (still) clearly pointing upwards. But the mid-term and short-term is falling towards the bear side and, therefore, it is necessary that the bulls appear in strength if this is meant to be resolved to the upside.
Let’s dive into the multiple time frame picture to check the details.
The weekly chart remains in line with our consolidation script. We can notice a healthy upward candle but with no continuity so far. The 38.2 Fibonacci level is still a good judge to determine directionality. Staying above it is a must for the bulls’ side. A close below it and the flood gates could open out with ease.
On that same chart, we can also observe how the oscillators are getting re-charged during this consolidation stage. Bitcoin just needs to hold for 1–2 weeks so that we can watch it to trigger some positive weekly momentum.
On the other hand, the lower time frame are printing some mixed signals. The daily one has the potential to draw a new leg up and break the upper border of the descending triangle.
But that can only happen if, in the 4-hour chart, price is contained for a while at or above the technical supports previously mentioned.
Looking Forward
In summary, there’s a bearish bias by default engrained in the current consolidation and the opportunity window for the bulls is quite limited. If Bitcoin’s trend is to take the upward path, we expect that the upcoming week will provide us with a clearer picture.
Important Note: The information provided on this post has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or trading activity. The contents are based upon or derived from information generally believed to be reliable although no representation is made that it is accurate or complete and Obvious Capital accepts no liability with regard to the user’s reliance on it.
