Crypto Investor Report, September 17
Summary
Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching the descending triangle apex and a market’s resolution may be taken in the short-term. Plus, the continuous squeezing in its price range is starting to flash emergent volatility alerts and what history tells us is that Bitcoin likes to make some eminent movements under these conditions.
To which direction, it is yet premature to predict. A new leg-up is pretty plausible, but conditions are fragile and going South has the same odds of happening. Behind the curtains, Ethereum (ETH) is making a bold move. After touching a local low of $163.61 at the end of August, price never looked back again and ETH is now trading at $210, a valorization of over 28%.
In the dominance picture, Bitcoin is now retracting a bit, conceding most of its lost share to the most recent Ethereum rally. The 70% barrier, despite being pierced recently, is apparently there to stay. However, there’s still margin to wait to see if that distribution is going to be spread over the other altcoins, or stay in the interim only on a small subset of them.
In the Spotlight
- Wells Fargo to launch stablecoin cryptocurrency in 2020
- Central Banks to question Facebook-Led Libra over financial risks
- German Gov’t approves ‘Bundes-Chain’ to combat Libra
- CME doubles BTC Futures contract limits
- Bitcoin mining power hits new high
- AWS announces cryptography-using Quantum Ledger database
- First-ever SEC-Qualified Token Offering in U.S. raises $23 Million
- Hedera Hashgraph launches Mainnet Open Beta
- Binance Bitcoin Futures debuts with $170M trading
Market Overview
The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has flattened out during the past seven days. From $264.5 Bn up to $266.9 Bn, a 0.9% weekly valorization.
The average daily traded volume has been ranging from $45 Bn up to $55 Bn during most of the week.
Bitcoin’s dominance had a significant retracement this week: from 69.7% seven days ago, down to 68.4% at the time this report is being written. Much of it can be explained by the current outperformance of Ethereum (ETH) — with BTC failing to follow its pace — raising its own dominance to 8.3% of the whole market.
Looking into the top digital assets and their weekly individual performances, the scenario is overall positive.
Bitcoin (BTC) had a valorization of 1.2% during the past seven days. At the time this report is being written, it is trading at near $10,250.
The most notorious movement was definitely Ethereum (ETH), with near 17% of gains. It has escaped the $175-$185 range which has trapped it for a while and is now trading at $210 after breaching easily the $190 and $200 resistance levels.
Cosmos (ATOM) with over 25% of gains was also in the spotlight. In fact, it’s the second successive week where it displays growths of over 20%, pumping now its price from $2.66 up to $3.34.
Regarding the top-20 listing by market capitalization, some permutations in the ordered ranking.
Cardano (ADA) rose again in the list, taking last week’s 9th place of Monero (XMR) and IOTA (MIOTA) fell down two places, sitting now in the 16th place.
The number of assets with over $1 Billion of market capitalization is still fixed on twelve, with TRON (TRX) bottoming that list.
Bitcoin Market Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) keeps operating in consolidation mode. But this apparently boring period might be approaching its resolution.
We see Bitcoin trading at a sensitive level enclosed between the rising September trendline and the $10,300 mark. A rejection on that level would force Bitcoin to break down the trendline and open the doors to a serious retest of $9k lows. We expect some further clarity on that over the next hours.
The Dinapoli Predictor is pointing down with a very aggressive slope and the cross or the rejection of it will have a great influence over the next direction.
Moreover, volatility is coiling hard in the daily time frame, 4-hour time frame and 1-hour time frame. We can see our Volatility indicator printing red big dots, a fact that usually announces breakout moves with a high degree of reliability.
All in all, it’s coming the time in which the next direction will get confirmed.
Now let’s take some perspective and enclose this expected near move into the bigger picture.
First things first, the weekly chart is comfortably sitting in consolidation mode. The weekly EMA21 is now in confluence with the descending triangle baseline. Many institutional algorithms take this reference as their context for directionality.
The more the baseline gets tested, the weaker it becomes. And the eventual break of that level would trigger a good bunch of short opening and position flipping. Therefore the time for resolution is coming soon according to the weekly chart.
Looking at our reliable weekly Stochastic we can see it getting closer to the signal line and hinting a potential bottom.
The Daily chart is still being supported by the EMA89, which just got above $10k. Here we can observe the volatility belt turning red and the daily Stochastic pointing upwards in the bull control zone. The bias in the daily chart is still to the upside.
And our detailed 4-hour chart is also aligned with the daily view. The Stochastic points upwards and has room to grow.
Looking Forward
In summary, the timing for the resolution is near. There are many moving parts coming together. The bias is favouring a break to the upside… but the situation is pretty fragile at these levels.
A break below the 4-hour trendline would trigger a chain of events that would empower the bears. And that would weaken even more the chances of $9,300 to hold one more retest. Therefore if this is meant to resolve to the upside, it’s time for the bulls to show up.
Important Note: The information provided on this post has been prepared solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any transaction or trading activity. The contents are based upon or derived from information generally believed to be reliable although no representation is made that it is accurate or complete and Obvious Capital accepts no liability with regard to the user’s reliance on it.
