8. Network Effects & Metcalfe’s Law
The basis of network effects theory is that the Oculus Rift becomes more valuable as more people use it. Metcalfe’s Law states that the total value of a network to its users grows as the square of the total number of its users.
Application to our lives
For relevance to the mass population, the Oculus Rift must become more than a gaming device, which is exactly what Mark Zuckerberg had in mind when Facebook purchased the headset for $2 billion last year. He envisions another purpose for the Oculus Rift as the next big platform after mobile. While it is currently primarily used for gaming, Zuckerberg believes “immersive virtual and augmented reality will become a part of people’s everyday life.” And he better hope so — as value depends on the amount of users, his investment needs consumers to find the virtual reality headset necessary. Does this mean in the future we could check our notifications on our Oculus instead of our iPhone?
Critics of Zuckerberg’s gamble argue that the two corporations do not belong together. However, others in the video game industry, such as Andy Payne, acknowledge “Facebook’s mass-market power will move VR into the mainstream. They have bought a vision of the future. And they have also bought future relevance.” There is hope yet for widespread adoption of the Oculus if Facebook can strengthen its worth.
And Facebook should know.
Facebook is the prime example of network effects and Metcalfe’s Law. The social network would be nothing without the vast amount of users it has. What would be the purpose of the website without the ability to read statuses, write on friends’ walls, and endlessly stalk photo albums on it? People increase the value. Facebook’s relevance reaches far beyond their URL, becoming our primary social identity on the web and the easiest way to log in or register for countless other services.
What else?
Other intended uses for the Oculus, as posted by Zuckerberg on Facebook, include “enjoying a court side seat at a game, studying in a classroom of students and teachers all over the world or consulting with a doctor face-to-face — just by putting on goggles in your home.” He sees the Oculus Rift’s presence in homes, schools, and every other private and public arena.
While these are high reaches, overall he explains the role of Facebook:
“Our mission is to make the world more open and connected.”
Zuckerberg explains Facebook’s connection to Oculus, “This is really a new communication platform. By feeling truly present, you can share unbounded spaces and experiences with the people in your life. Imagine sharing not just moments with your friends online, but entire experiences and adventures.”
The debate is on…
Does virtual reality have the potential to truly make us more connected or will it further separate us from presence during face-to-face interaction? There are already problems with people spending more time with their cellphones at the dinner table than with the friends or family around them. Conversations are constantly interrupted by checking text messages or the latest posts on Twitter or Instagram. How can we possibly interact with others through a headset that covers our eyes? Will the Oculus send us over the edge into a world of unceasing technology overload?
The daily life
From Zuckerberg’s Facebook post, “One day, we believe this kind of immersive, augmented reality will become a part of daily life for billions of people.” Potential daily uses for the Oculus include integration into tasks at the workplace or recreational activities on the weekends.
In the future, could movie theaters move from IMAX 3D to Oculus featured films equipped with glasses or bring your own? With highly visual movies such as Avatar seeing great success, being further immersed in the films could be appealing to the public. Apparently, director James Cameron does not feel the same way. In an interview with Mashable, he explained that if consumers did not go for 3D TVs, they certainly won’t be using goggles to view films either.
At work, some have stated that eventually, with enough development, the Oculus Rift could replace your desktop computer at work. The device could display any realm that your occupation encompasses. The Oculus could be your new training manual, test scenario for various situations, or communication platform if Facebook succeeds. For conference calls, the Oculus could easily use its technology to develop a “FaceTime-like” system. The issue with this is how multi-player usage will develop for the headset.
Virtual interaction
Since the Oculus puts you entirely in a virtual world of your own, there is currently no option for additional users to interact. However, it is sure to come in the future. This thought leads to questions about avatar development and what others will view when they see “you” on screen.
The way I see this happening is building your appearance in a similar way to Wii’s Mii maker. But, to create a true reality, Oculus should take it further. Maybe people could upload a photo of themselves which would be rendered into 3D avatars. Another thing is the extent of interaction since motion is so limited in the virtual world. But if properly executed, what could the Oculus Rift become with an extensive network of users?
I believe the current developments for the Oculus Rift make it entirely possible to use as an independent piece of technology. The point of virtual reality is to put the user in his or her own world. The iPod has seen success without social interaction. It performs its purpose on its own. However, gaming rarely is found to be a solo activity. Xbox Live was released in 2002 and allows users to play various games together across the globe. Is this the direction the Oculus Rift will take? Or is it valuable on its own? Without audio it’s difficult to see the Oculus progressing far in the technology world. However, these developments will come as the company learns what the product needs to survive in the market.
Conclusion
For now, the Oculus Rift may be enough. People will be in awe taking their first steps on “the moon” or coming face to face with a sunflower in “Italy.”
In the future, there is no doubt we will see updated versions that expand the network and the value of the technology. Adoption will be the real problem, just as it has been for most wearable devices. Could the Oculus become a common household item or eventually fade out like Google Glass’s brief moment in the spotlight? The key to sustaining use will be building a network of users to increase relevance for the population. Whether this means providing headsets on airplanes to watch a movie or modifying development kits to become the next YouTube platform, only time will tell.
