2021 IDP Rookie Rankings
There are two kinds of people in fantasy football when it comes to processing information: reactors and musers. Reactors see a piece of news, or observe a game and its outcome, and have a decision already made about how they’ll utilize the new data points to make a move. Musers want time to process that information, look at all the connections to other variables, and then come to a holistic decision. Reactors are the people who make windfalls in value, like flipping houses or brokering stocks, but they can make mistakes too; musers tend to have a lower ceiling, but a higher floor due to their confidence in their “slow-and-steady” process.
It will surprise none of you to know that I’m a muser. I have always been bad about writing a rapid reaction article when a big trade goes down. I loathe doing game reports because I want time to suss out the best and most impactful storylines from the game, not just regurgitate the action in text form. My muser tendencies, though, are why I’m actually pretty proud of myself that I have fully formed 2021 Individual Defensive Player (IDP) rookie rankings just two weeks after the NFL Draft.
Hey, be cool; that’s pretty good for me.
Regardless of how fast I got there, I’m confident in my process for assembling these rankings. These rankings have a basis in my analytical model that takes athleticism, college production, and draft capital into account as well as some subjective tweaks based on personal impressions due to film watching. The analytics component compares different factors in a player’s profile with fantasy points, fantasy points per game, and games played over the first three years of their NFL career.
I split the players into five position groups: defensive linemen (DL), edge rushers (EDGE), linebackers (LB), cornerbacks (CB), and safeties (S). For those that don’t play IDP with True Position, however, I do make sure to note which DL would be DT or DE in standard, and the same with EDGE as DE or LB. The rankings will go position by position and the combined position rankings can be found at the end.
Defensive Lineman Rankings
Payton Turner of the New Orleans Saints and Christian Barmore from the New England Patriots form their own two-man tier at the top of the 2021 DL rookie rankings. I classify Turner as a defensive lineman because of his thicker frame (similar to J.J. Watt, Cameron Jordan, or Arik Armstead), but he will be DE-eligible in most leagues that split the DL spots due to the Saints playing in a 4–3 system. It might take Turner a year to get a starting role, but the aforementioned Jordan is getting up in age and fellow first-rounder Marcus Davenport will need to prove he can stick.
I really like the NFC East landing spots of Philadelphia Eagles defensive tackle Milton Williams and the Dallas Cowboys’ Osa Odighizuwa. Both are smaller-framed interior defenders who win with athleticism and technique over power, and that’s the kind of player you want to prospect on in DT-specific IDP leagues. Both are likely rotational players at best in Year One, but impressive athleticism and Day Two draft capital go a long way to getting on the field early.
My favorite deep option in this class is Isaiahh Loudermilk, who should end up as a 5-technique defensive end for the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers signaled how much they value Loudermilk by not only trading for the pick to get him, but trading a future fourth-rounder to select him in the fifth round of this draft. He was disruptive at Wisconsin, and though he isn’t overly explosive, his overall profile suggests he could be a solid contributor.
Edge Rusher Rankings
New Miami Dolphins edge rusher Jaelan Phillips was the only 2021 pass-rusher whose production, athleticism, and draft capital all lined up right. He’s far and away the best player in the model for this position group, though he obviously gets dinged if you play in a league where he’ll be classified as an LB as opposed to a DE or EDGE.
The next tier down holds both Buffalo Bills defensive ends — Carlos Basham Jr. and Gregory Rousseau — as well as Indianapolis Colts first-rounder Kwity Paye. Paye is about as solid as they come outside of Phillips, so there’s no concern for me even taking him as the DE1 in your league if you prefer safety. Basham and Rousseau are interesting because the model liked Basham’s athleticism and production more than Rousseau, even though Rousseau was the higher-drafted of the two. They’ll likely get worked into the rotation as veterans Jerry Hughes and Trent Murphy get phased out.
Any of the 4–3 DE ranked from 13 to 18 really intrigue me as deeper fliers, as there are some landing spots where they could make instant impacts if things break right. Each of them had mid-round draft capital, which helps ensure they’ll get a chance. This EDGE class is top-heavy with guys who may not be classified as DE in your league, but it’s deep once you get to the mid-round picks and beyond.
Linebacker Rankings
Projecting linebackers is tough, but Dallas Cowboys ‘backer Micah Parsons is far and away the best player overall in my model, so he’s a lock at LB1. The landing spots and skill sets of the next group of linebackers are incredible as well, though players like Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah may have to fight for snaps early on, and Baron Browning and Nick Bolton will almost certainly ride the pine for most of the 2021 season.
This group has a very good top group that sort of tapers off past the 15th player or so. Guys like Paddy Fisher were lauded in college and could be sleeper UDFA’s, but I’d prefer to dip my toes in the LB pool earlier rather than later this year.
Cornerback Rankings
Safety Rankings
Overall IDP Rankings
