Despite Week 1 Results, Washington’s Offensive Instincts Remain Stuck in the Past

I really like to give credit where credit is due, especially in a high-profile, high-pressure public job like coaching a National Football League team where even your smallest misstep is magnified by 10,000 percent.

To that end, good for the Washington Football Team for deactivating aging veteran running back Adrian Peterson in Week 1 against the Philadelphia Eagles when they had fellow early-down bruiser Derrius Guice healthy and ready to roll. To head coach Jay Gruden’s credit, he explained Peterson’s first career healthy scratch by saying, per The Washington Post,

“He’s a first- and second-down back. So is Derrius…. Derrius can handle those…”

In a league where running has been proven time and again to simply be less valuable than passing the ball, this quote from Gruden the Younger seems to indicate that he has a good grasp on the idea that rush-only running backs are not needed in droves on your gameday roster.

But no.

In the middle of a well-put defense of his decision, Gruden snuck in this little gem:

“[We’ll get] about 20 first downs a game. Probably eight of those are passes, 12 of those might be runs, and Derrius can handle those 12…”

I’m sorry, Jay, you plan to run the ball on about 60 percent of your first down plays?

As soon as I read that, it seemed ridiculous. In a league where more than 57 percent of all plays were drop backs in 2018, it seems absolutely wild that any team would run the ball even 50 percent of the time on first down, let alone 60 percent. Especially considering that that passes are more successful at generating value in all situations on first downs. Especially considering the success they garnered just today passing the ball with Case freaking Keenum (30-of-44, 380 yards, 3 touchdowns).

But sure enough, using Pro Football Reference’s Play Index we can see that Washington was one of just five teams in 2018 to run on 55 percent or more of their first downs.

This was in spite of the fact that their run game generated half a yard less than the league average on first down rushes, not to mention that (on a per-play basis) they passed for 2.3 yards more than they ran for on first downs — which was 0.7 yards larger of a margin than comparing all Washington passing and rushing plays. This was in spite of the fact that Washington ran the ball on just 44.9 percent of their total plays that season.

It’s baffling play-calling strategy, to say the least.

Still, 2019 is a new year and Washington passed on 44 of their 57 offensive plays in Week 1 (77.2 percent), so maybe there’s hope even for them. As for Adrian Peterson? Unless they “can run the ball 55 times in a game in an I-formation,” it seems like Gruden is content to let him stay in street clothes. Fortunately for you “The NFL is a Passing League” truthers like myself, that hasn’t happened since 2013.