The Dolphins Are a Mess, So How Could It Get Worse?
We all assumed that 2019 was going to suck to watch the Miami Dolphins. Coming into the offseason, the ‘Phins had one of the most talent-devoid rosters in the NFL, a cap that was clogged with big-money clutter, and — most importantly in this league — no quarterback.
But then things got worse.
On August 31st, Miami traded franchise cornerstone left tackle Laremy Tunsil and deep threat wide receiver Kenny Stills (as well as two late-round draft picks) for mediocre left tackle Julie’n Davenport, cornerback Johnson Bademosi, the Houston Texans’ next two first-round picks, and a second-rounder. The next day, they sent linebacker Kiko Alonso to the New Orleans Saints for linebacker Vince Biegel. When a team trades stars for draft pick lottery tickets, or makes out-and-out salary dumps (like the Alonso trade), it can mean only one thing: it’s time to tank our talents at South Beach.
Not everyone likes to lose on purpose, though, especially professional athletes whose job it is to win. So, in the aftermath of the Dolphins’ Week 1 clubbing at the hands of quarterback Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, it’s little surprise that Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported that “multiple Dolphins players contacted their agents after Sunday… and directed them to attempt to engineer trades elsewhere”.
For we fans and watchers, though, that means we might be in for an even rougher experience than previously believed possible. What will the hollowed-out carcass of the Dolphins’ roster look like in 2019 if these rumors come true?
If the Dolphins’ goal is to lose as much as possible, that means they will likely look to trade or release their best players (and those players will also likely fetch the best returns in a trade too). So, I decided to look at the Dolphins’ 2018 Approximate Value scores (per Pro Football Reference) as a benchmark for quality, and find these players a new home.
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cornerback/Safety
Already Miami has publicly announced that they’ve given permission to defensive back Minkah Fitzpatrick and his agent to seek out a trade partner. Rumors also indicate that they won’t settle for anything less than a first-round draft pick as compensation, given Fitzpatrick’s age, cost, and playing potential. I can’t blame the Dolphins for demanding that much in value, considering Fitzpatrick is exactly the kind of player they will want to keep to ride out this rebuild.
I also can’t blame Fitzpatrick for wanting out. The sophomore slot corner was impressive in his 2018 debut, posting top-15 marks in snaps per reception allowed and yards allowed per snap, as well as a top-10 mark in NFL Passer Rating allowed (a nice 69.0) when targeted among 132 qualifying cornerbacks last year (per Pro Football Focus). As an Alabama alum, he probably hasn’t had to lose in a while, and he shouldn’t have to now.
Basically any team in the league could use a Micah Hyde-esque movable chess piece in the secondary, but a few contenders have seen abjectly terrible slot play this season and could especially be a good fit: the Dallas Cowboys are no strangers to swapping early-round picks for young, upside assets, and Anthony Brown isn’t doing the job right now; the Kansas City Chiefs are just hoping to out-pass their competition, but replacing Kendall Fuller could be a smart move; and though the Philadelphia Eagles got much better secondary play than expected last year, they shouldn’t sit on their laurels with Avonte Maddox.
Kenyan Drake, Running Back
Kenyan Drake isn’t a bad running back in today’s NFL. Despite an offensive line that ranked 30th in the league by Football Outsiders’ Adjusted Line Yards in 2017, Drake put up a strong 4.8 yards per carry on 133 attempts — which was about 0.7 yards per carry better than the team average. The line did improve in 2018, and Drake did slump beneath the team average, but this does belie the fact that he’s averaged 42 catches per season from 2017 onward, for 8.4 yards per reception. He’s a versatile change-of-pace back, and that has value in the league these days.
The Indianapolis Colts could be a good landing spot for Drake, if they were buyers. Drake would actually make an excellent backup to Marlon Mack, as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type of player; only receiving back Nyheim Hines and plodder Jordan Wilkins inhabit that backfield and Drake would be an upgrade on either for his versatility. The Atlanta Falcons have some room for a backup of his caliber, and — of course — neither Peyton Barber nor Ronald Jones has yet proven to be a true top back, so the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could always throw Drake into the mix for a true three-headed monster.
Raekwon McMillan, Linebacker
Another young’un who could want out of town is linebacker Raekwon McMillan. McMillan was drafted in the top-50 of the 2017 NFL Draft, but lost his rookie season to an injury. In his comeback 2018, playing the middle linebacker spot in Miami’s 4–3 defense, McMillan proved to be an excellent run defender (ranking sixth in Run Stop Percentage among 93 qualifying LB, per PFF), a passable tackler (57th in Tackle Efficiency), and a poor coverage linebacker (eighth-worst in Coverage Grades). He has the tools and potential to improve on his flaws, but he is a prototypical JACK-style, downhill and attacking ‘backer that just needs the right role to shine.
The Los Angeles Chargers could be one reasonable landing spot, if McMillan would be slotted in to take the aging Thomas Davis’s position. Philadelphia could also be a target here, with both Nigel Bradham and offseason acquisition Zach Brown putting up below-average grades on PFF so far. Depending on how the Cleveland Browns see themselves, they could look to upgrade the middle or weak-side positions with McMillan, too.
Reshad Jones, Safety
Despite sitting out Week 2 with an injured ankle, 31-year-old Reshad Jones remains a high-value player as both a hard-hitting and playmaking safety. Over the last five years, he has ranked 10th, 7th, 7th, 50th, and 37th in PFF’s grades among qualifying safeties, with elite tackling numbers while remaining above-average in coverage. Jones is probably nowadays more of a solid second safety rather than a standout as either the centerfielding free safety or a banging strong safety, but in almost every category he is at least middle of the pack over the last few years.
Here’s the issue with trading Jones: he has a cap number of more than $17 million this season. The Dolphins would have to eat a significant portion of the money in order to move him anywhere, let alone in order to get anything reasonable back. The Houston Texans would be one spot, with both Tashaun Gipson and Justin Reid performing poorly so far; Jones would immediately become their best safety and probably push Gipson to the bench. The Cowboys have also been looking for a safety upgrade forever, and Jeff Heath is getting vastly exposed in both run defense and coverage. Otherwise, there just may not be many teams with the financial space to bring Jones on.
Bobby McCain, Cornerback
While not a standout, Bobby McCain could also be an option for defensive back-needy teams. The versatile McCain has played corner for most of his career, but has subbed in at safety this season. Last season, he did end up 33rd in NFL Passer Rating allowed (99.1; 158.3 is a perfect mark in this category) among 66 qualifying slot defenders, and was slightly above-average in snaps per target allowed — which shows how often his coverage forced passers to avoid his receiver — on PFF. When taking into account both slot and playing outside, however, McCain posted the 39th-lowest overall grade among 227 qualifying defensive backs, and was 11th-lowest in coverage grade. He’s a slot corner through-and-through, and needs to be used that way to have value.
The Pittsburgh Steelers could throw a late-round draft pick at Miami for some help, with slot defenders Mike Hilton and Cameron Sutton allowing 156.3 and 118.8 NFL Passer Ratings, respectively. The New Orleans Saints may want to upgrade on P.J. Williams (146.9 Passer Rating allowed), and the Seattle Seahawks might like to give rookie Ugo Amadi some competition as well (100.0 Passer Rating allowed).
Other than these, no holdover from 2018 who didn’t sign a recent extension or publicly announce that they aren’t demanding a trade accrued more than 4 AV points (per PF-Ref) last year — ranking them outside the top 725 players in the league last season.
There are some players who could be worth a look otherwise, like wide receivers Albert Wilson, Jakeem Grant, or DeVante Parker (though the latter two both signed extensions this offseason and would be pains in the cap to move), or quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick — though the Dolphins would be hard-pressed to find a buyer on him considering his mediocre 50 percent completion rate, ugly 5.48 yards per attempt, and horrific 8 percent interception rate through just two halves of two games despite the rash of quarterback injuries already this season.
Valuable players the Dolphins could shed for pick compensation are few and far between. Minkah Fitzpatrick might be the one player the Dolphins could realistically move and also get more than peanuts back for. Even if they don’t, it’s likely that this 2019 Miami team will go down as one of the worst in NFL history.
Happy tanking, everyone.
