What if Aaron Donald Became a Restricted Free Agent?
There’s a slim, but real chance one of the NFL’s best defenders could become a restricted free agent after the 2018 season. How could that happen and would it make sense to pursue?
Holdouts happen in the NFL every summer. At one point or another a superstar player is unhappy with his contract and skips a part or all of training camp. More often than not, the holdout ends when an extension is reached or there’s an understanding an extension is coming without much damage being done. But for Aaron Donald and the Los Angeles Rams, there’s something more at stake with a lengthy holdout for the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
Donald wants a new deal as he’s set to play under the fifth-year option of his rookie contract that will pay him just under $6.9 million in 2018. That figure is currently the 11th-highest cap hit on Donald’s own team and less than half of what new teammate Ndamukong Suh will make this year at the same position ($14.5 million). Donald has been arguably the best defensive player in the league since his rookie season in 2014. He’s ranked no lower than fourth for quarterback hits in each of the past three seasons despite playing as an interior defender and he’s recorded no fewer than eight sacks in each year of his career.
This contract dispute is not new for the defensive star. Donald held out of training camp last year and did not report to the team until September 9, a day before the Rams’ first regular season game. It’s because of last year’s holdout that the length of this year’s looms large over the circumstances surrounding Donald’s next deal.
Since Donald didn’t report to the team more than 30 days before the first regular season game, he was not credited with an accrued season for free agency. Losing one season wouldn’t matter much for Donald and it typically doesn’t impact players holding out in the last year of their deals — a player only needs four accrued seasons to be an unrestricted free agent — but if Donald’s holdout lasts through that 30 day threshold before this season — August 7 this year — he would become a restricted free agent with only three accrued seasons under his belt, Joel Corry of CBS Sports noted, then wrote off as not a big deal. On the contrary, this could potentially be a big fucking deal.
It could also never become an issue. If Donald and the Rams come to terms on a new contract before the start of the 2019 league year or Donald’s current holdout ends any time before August 7, this becomes a moot point. But what if one of those two things doesn’t happen? The possibility is fascinating.
The Rams would have to offer Donald a restricted free agent tender — a one-year deal worth 110 percent of his 2018 salary because that number is well above the default tender values. That would give Donald a potential $7.6 million contract for 2019. Los Angeles could offer Donald either a first-round or original-round tender, both would return a first-round pick if the Rams did not match an external offer sheet from another team. The only mistake would be using a second-round tender, which would be deliberate malpractice.
Donald obviously wouldn’t be enthusiastic about the potential of another one-year deal under $8 million — well below even the ~$15.4 million estimated franchise tag — but in order for him to solicit offer sheets from other teams, he would have to sign the tender. If Donald does not sign the tender by April 19, he would forfeit his right to receive outside offers and the Rams would hold exclusive negotiating rights for the next year. If Donald doesn’t sign the tender by the Tuesday after Week 10, he wouldn’t be allowed to play that season and he’d be considered a restricted free agent again for 2020, starting this whole process over.
Now since we’re already so far down this hypothetical rabbithole, let’s say Donald signs the tender with the goal of getting a long-term offer from another team. This part is basically unrestricted free agency for Donald and his agent. They’re free to get offers from any team, but that team will know acquiring Donald will cost not just a jeft new contract, but also the loss of a first-round pick. This is another place where the process could get interesting, because teams have no often parted with first round picks for players.
While smart teams have been more apt to trade mid-to-late-round picks for veteran players, there haven’t been many trades that involved one in the first-round. Since 2006, there have been nine trades that have included a veteran player for a first-round pick — the most recent, a 2016 trade that sent Sam Bradford to the Minnesota Vikings and a first-round pick to the Philadelphia Eagles. Only three of those nine trades involved a defensive player — Darrelle Revis in 2013, Richard Seymour in 2009, and Jared Allen in 2008.
Seymour is perhaps the closest to Donald’s position on the field, but at the time of the trade Seymour was already 29 years old and his best seasons were behind him. Revis is the closest in quality and while in 2013 he was entering his age-28 season — the same age Donald will be in 2019 — he had just come off a year when he played in just two games due to injury.
The question is then how many teams would be interested in giving up a first-round pick and a significant contract in exchange for Donald’s services and it’s hard to imagine the answer isn’t all of them.
Per Over The Cap, Revis had a $16 million cap hit during his lone year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2013 — a number that counted for 13 percent of the salary cap. Assuming a $190 million salary cap for the 2019 season, Donald would have to be paid $24.7 million to take up 13 percent of his next team’s cap. As good as Donald has been, that seems unlikely.
A first-round pick should be well worth the high market price for a superstar player. Per the Football Perspective draft pick value chart, the first overall pick is worth an average of 24.7 AV (Approximate Value) over the first five years of his career. Donald has already been worth 61 AV across his four years in the league.
Donald should also project as a player who ages quite well. Take the career progression of Ndamukong Suh. Over Suh’s first four years with the Detroit Lions, Suh was worth 48 AV. In his final year with the Lions and his three seasons with the Miami Dolphins, Suh was still worth 43 AV despite a lack of ideal fit in Miami, especially in the first season. However, Donald shouldn’t have that problem depending on the defensive scheme. He’s already shown he can thrive in whatever technique is asked whether it be in a 4–3 or 3–4 base. Even if Donald if only about 90 percent of what he was over the next four seasons — the same rate of Suh’s “decline” — he’d still be worth roughly 55 AV. That’s still well above the average value of the first overall pick and over the past four seasons in the NFL, only 15 players have reached 55 AV.
The price of a first-round pick would also force teams to make legitimate offers and not just ones structured in a way to screw over the Rams — to the extent that’s legally allowable without a “poison pill.” However, teams could frontload this deal, which could be a problem for the Rams with new contracts for Jared Goff, Todd Gurley, and their two big trade acquisitions — Brandin Cooks and Marcus Peters — looming.
What does make this scenario a non-zero chance of happening is that it could potentially be Donald’s quickest way to a long-term deal if he doesn’t believe one is coming from Los Angeles before next offseason. Donald would be able to listen to the outside offers and pick the best one. At that point, the Rams would have five days to match a signed offer sheet or decline and receive the offering team’s first-round pick. Donald would have either a new contract with a new team that offered him the best deal or an official new long-term deal with the Rams — the thing he’s currently seeking. He’d be guaranteed to enter 2019 with a new contract somewhere.
Going this route could also force the Rams to offer Donald a contract before the restricted free agent process gets too far down the line. Los Angeles might want to get a deal done as soon as possible and not even run the risk of losing Donald for just a first-round pick.
In reality, it might be hard to see this scenario play out all the way to the end of Donald signing with a new team, but it could be a rare loophole for a player of Donald’s caliber to consider. If it does happen, it could be one of the most intriguing NFL storylines in quite some time.
