What-If-L: What if the Packers Didn’t Botch the 1989 Draft?
Hindsight is 20/20, especially when that hindsight comes over 30 years after the fact. That said, it didn’t take that long to see that four of the top picks in the 1989 NFL Draft would end up Hall of Fame superstars and one would end up a colossal bust that could have decimated a franchise and left them reeling if not for miraculous accidents a few years later.
If you can’t tell, I’m a Green Bay Packers fan.
Due to this allegiance, the results of the ’89 Draft hold a premier place of personal dismay in my heart and have always been something I’d want to change if I had a time machine (and if every movie about time travel didn’t remind me that changing the past has outward-rippling and irreversible effects on the present and future). While I don’t have an actual way to go back to that draft and fix it, I do have the benefit of time being frozen right now. With the coronavirus putting much of the NFL news cycle on hold, there’s little else to think and write about besides the past.
That means we have all the opportunity in the world to re-draft the first round of the ’89 Draft with the benefit of hindsight (and modern-day advanced analytics). I used Pro Football Reference’s Career Approximate Value (AV) to help give some perspective on the draft pool’s careers, but I didn’t just “redraft” based on whose careers were the most successful; I still wanted the picks to make sense for the team as constructed. To do this, I graded each team’s strength at each position group over the previous three years and tried to pick players that fit. Obviously there will be points where the best player on the board and the position of most need don’t overlap, and in that case I drafted for BPA.
Let’s hop into our DeLoreans of the mind and set the clock to… With the first overall pick in the 1989 National Football League draft, the Dallas Cowboys select…
1. Dallas Cowboys — Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA
Original Pick: Troy Aikman, QB, UCLA
As much as I tried to justify an alternative pick here at #1 for the sake of fun, there’s just no way that Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones doesn’t go out and draft by far the most successful and valuable quarterback in this draft class. Eventual Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman is often maligned as less-deserving of a Canton nod than his peers (and arguably rightly so), but the fact remains that Aikman produced. Over the course of 12 years in the league, he posted nearly 33,000 passing yards, 165 passing touchdowns, and 141 interceptions, for an average AV per game of 0.59 (fourth-most among all players in this class) and the fifth-most total career AV.
To be fair, however, I think there is a case to be made that the Cowboys did not need to select Aikman first overall. 1986–88 starter Steve Pelluer performed admirably in 23 starts, turning in an average 0.50 AV per game and helping the Cowboys’ quarterbacks earn a middling 17th-place ranking in the league over the preceding three seasons. Where Dallas really struggled was at wide receiver (27th) and offensive tackle (26th), but the former’s production could be improved by better QB play and there weren’t any of the latter who had a career that rivaled Aikman’s. All I’m saying is Steve Pelluer should’ve at least gotten another shot elsewhere (#Justice4Pelluer) but I don’t think Cowboys fans will mind how the 90’s turned out for them with Aikman at the helm.
2. Green Bay Packers — Barry Sanders, RB, Oklahoma State
Original Pick: Tony Mandarich, OT, Michigan State
As a Green Bay Packers fan, it’s easy to just slot future Hall of Fame running back Barry Sanders in and dream about the eventual offense with quarterback Brett Favre and Sanders slicing and dicing the rest of the NFC. It makes it even sweeter that the Pack deprives their division rival Lions of the chance to get Sanders, one of the most beloved players in franchise history. Despite playing “only” 10 years in the league, Sanders accrued by far the most AV (121) and the most AV per game (0.79) — a career peak that essentially lasted his entire career.
This is, of course, in place of offensive tackle Tony Mandarich, affectionately (?) known as “The Incredible Bulk”. Mandarich wasn’t a thorough bust, eventually winding up a 7-year career in which he posted the 43rd-most AV per game of his draft classmates. Still, he never came close to being the franchise left tackle the Packers assumed he’d be, largely due to drug, alcohol, and steroid abuse. Really, the Packers’ offensive needs were so tremendous going into this draft, they just needed a hit — now, they finally get it.
3. Detroit Lions — Deion Sanders, DB, Florida State
Original Pick: Barry Sanders, RB, Oklahoma State
The Detroit Lions would certainly be disappointed to miss out on the ’89 Draft’s premier running back, but they actually came in at 13th in RB AV going into this draft, so Barry Sanders was somewhat of a luxury for this team. Garry James and James Jones anchored the Lions’ backfield in this time, though they were plagued by injury and poor overall offensive efficiency. Still, with the fourth-lowest DL AV, 10th-lowest LB AV, and ninth-lowest DB AV, defense is still a pretty big problem for these Lions.
Defensive back and supreme showman Deion Sanders would bring the smoothness back to Motown with this pick, as his lockdown ball-hawking, electric kick-returning, and eye-grabbing personality would be the toast of the town. Sure, he might still leave for greener pastures with Dallas and San Francisco eventually, but he was still dynamite in his early career, averaging the third-most AV per game (0.61) among ’89 draftees and posting 6.2 takeaways and 47.6 tackles a season in his first stop. Two words: Prime Time.
4. Kansas City Chiefs — Derrick Thomas, LB, Alabama
Original Pick: Derrick Thomas, LB, Alabama
I’m trying not to be “predictable” in this re-draft, but with only one more top-tier future Hall of Famer to select, the Kansas City Chiefs are just gonna run it back with what worked in linebacker Derrick Thomas. Thomas spent his entire 11-year career with the team that picked him, and in that span notched 126.5 sacks — putting him 17th all-time in that mark, just behind John Randle, Lawrence Taylor, and Rickey Jackson. He also averaged 58 tackles per season and missed just 7 games in his entire career, for an incredible 0.64 AV per game (2nd-most among ’89 draftees).
KC took him for a reason, too: they weren’t stalwarts on offense by any means, but they ranked sixth-lowest in both DL AV and LB AV going into the 1989 season, which made a rush linebacker like Thomas the perfect fit for them.
5. Atlanta Falcons — Steven Wisniewski, IOL, Penn State
Original Pick: Deion Sanders, DB, Florida State
This is the first major changeup for the draft, as in real life interior offensive lineman Steven Wisniewski (yes, the uncle of current NFL offensive lineman Stefen) was selected at 2.29 by Dallas. What teams didn’t realize back then was just how important and valuable interior lineman can be, and — in a weak offensive tackle class — Wisniewski and some of his IOL peers really stand out. “The Wiz” is one of just four players overall in this class to play 12 or more seasons as a starter in the NFL, and just one of six to also accrue 0.50 AV per game or more. While offensive line is hard to quantify using traditional statistics, one thing that stands out is his discipline, as he was penalized just 42 times across 112 games from 1995 to 2001.
The Falcons won’t get a Hall of Famer in Sanders here anymore, and they pass up the chance to take another by drafting The Wiz instead of the next selection, but they really needed offensive help more than anything else. In an ideal world, you want to build an offense through the quarterback and offensive tackle positions (ranked worst and fourth-worst in positional AV, respectively), but failing that it makes sense to load up at the inside of the line (still 11th-worst) and have a protective wall ready for a franchise passer to step into in time. Wisniewski helps them do that, and for well over 200 games, too.
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Steve Atwater, DB, Arkansas
Original Pick: Broderick Thomas, LB, Nebraska
The ’88–’89 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are essentially in just as bad a position as the Packers, with perhaps one position of strength if you squint and look sideways at the tight end unit. Other than that, no unit ranks above sixth-worst in position AV coming into this draft, meaning the options are wide open for them. Originally they selected linebacker Broderick Thomas, who compiled a solid enough 144-game resumé with an average of 77 tackles per season. He was an unspectacular contributor over 9 seasons, but that’s not what you hope for with the sixth overall pick.
Instead, my Bucs will get to draft another Canton-bound defensive back in Steve Atwater out of Arkansas. Atwater just made the Hall of Fame this past year, and in our fantasy re-draft here he gets a big pay raise as well. Atwater played for 11 seasons, posting 0.47 AV per game (7th-most among ’89 draftees). While has a slightly lower career AV than the next pick, his peak was a bit higher and that’s why he gets the nod here.
7. Pittsburgh Steelers— Carnell Lake, DB, UCLA
Original Pick: Tim Worley, RB, Georgia
Unfortunately for the Pittsburgh Steelers in this re-draft exercise, they are not the only ones with prescient knowledge of who and what these players will be in their careers. That means that this time around they don’t get to steal defensive back Carnell Lake like they did in the real ’89 Draft at 34th overall. Lake would go on to have a 13-year career, posting the ninth-most AV per game among his peers (0.44). He fits exactly what the Steelers need, as they were in a major bind on the defensive side at this point in history.
The team’s original selection, running back Tim Worley, looks less as a top-10 selection and more like a fourth-rounder at best in this exercise. He accrued just 455 rushing attempts in a six-year career, with a mediocre 3.94 yards per attempt. He would’ve also filled a need, but Lake’s value just ended up much higher.
8. San Diego Chargers— Mark Stepnoski, IOL, Pitt
Original Pick: Burt Grossman, DL, Pitt
It’s shocking to think that, in the real Draft, the Cowboys selected Aikman, Wisniewski, and interior offensive lineman Mark Stepnoski (three of the top-rated players from this class). Here, though, we get to spread the wealth a bit more, and that means our 1989 San Diego Chargers can protect passer Dan Fouts and pave the way for runner Gary Anderson better. Stepnoski was originally the 57th selection, but he gets a three-round upgrade here thanks to a 13-year career in which he accrued the 7th-most career AV among ’89 draftees.
The Chargers took defensive lineman Burt Grossman with their original pick, and we’ll talk more about him in a later selection. It was hard to miss with this pick however, since San Diego ranked third-worst in four of nine positional groups by AV coming into this draft. Of those, the interior line and wide receivers were the worst, and Stepnoski was a tier above anyone at other positions of need.
9. Miami Dolphins — Wayne Martin, DL, Arkansas
Original Pick: Sammie Smith, RB, Florida State
Another running back choice bites the dust as we party in 1989 like it’s 2020: original pick Sammie Smith played just four seasons in the NFL before flopping out of the league and eventually spending seven years in prison for drug trafficking, although he might’ve been a third-round pick in our exercise just for his talent at his playing peak. But when we reassess the league with the hindsight of 30 years, running backs have to be special to be worth a top-10 selection; Smith was just serviceable. The Miami Dolphins won’t mind we fixed this one for them.
Defensive lineman Wayne Martin joins the South Beach squad, having compiled an 11-year career with the 22nd-most AV per game (0.39) and 11th-most career AV (67) among his peers. Martin racked up about 7.5 sacks and 56 tackles per season, turning in 11 tackles for a loss in his one year when that was a tracked stat (1999). Martin was a disruptive force on the line, and the defense was the late 80's/early 90’s Dolphins’ one weak point. Now? Maybe Dan Marino gets a ring after all…
10. Phoenix Cardinals — Mark Schlereth, IOL, Idaho
Original Pick: Eric Hill, LB, Louisiana State
Our largest leap yet, interior offensive lineman Mark Schlereth just went from a 10th-round (there were — in fact — 12 rounds back then) pick to the 10th overall, a rise of over 250 slots. Schlereth would eventually go on to have a 12-year career, turning in the 10-most AV per game (0.42) among ’89 draftees despite being a primary starter on his team in just over half of his seasons and enduring a whopping 29 surgeries — 20 of them on his knees alone. In addition, he was an integral part of the lines that won Super Bowl XXVI for the Washington franchise and Super Bowls XXXII and XXXIII for the Broncos.
For that reason, Schlereth is an obvious pick for the Phoenix Cardinals, whose only offensive flaw in the late 80’s was its 19th-ranked IOL unit by AV. Linebacker Eric Hill, the team’s original selection, does make it into the first round still in our draft, but his career was not nearly as stellar as his replacement, nor was the Cardinals’ need at that position group as great.
11. Chicago Bears — Eric Metcalf, RB, Texas
Original Pick: Donnell Woolford, DB, Clemson
The Chicago Bears defined the 1980’s: the Monsters of the Midway defense, the ’85 Super Bowl Shuffle, and Hall of Fame running back Walter Payton — affectionately known as “Sweetness”. By the end of the decade, however, Payton was retiring, leaving a massive gap in the Chicago offense. The passing game, helmed by quarterback Jim McMahon, ranked eighth-worst by both QB and WR AV going into the ’89 Draft. Losing Payton without a replacement was devastating, so in this alternate timeline, we select runner Eric Metcalf to help fill in after Sweetness. No one will confuse the two in either style or production, but Metcalf played for 14 years, posting the 35th-most AV per game (0.35) and accruing the 14th-most career AV in this class.
Defensive back Donnell Woolford was the original pick here, and he remains a first-round pick in our redraft. The Bears simply had such a stout defense and Metcalf’s career would eventually outstrip Woolford’s, so the pick here almost had to be offense.
12. Chicago Bears — Andre Rison, WR, Michigan State
Original Pick: Trace Armstrong, DL, Florida
We’re back at it again: the Chicago Bears actually picked defensive lineman Trace Armstrong in 1989, but we’re still helping them balance their roster a bit more in this go-around. Armstrong still gets to be a first-rounder in our universe, so it’s no harm, no foul. He simply doesn’t fit by position or value when hindsight comes into play, thanks to the Bears ranking top-six or better in all defensive position unit AV coming into the ’89 Draft.
Instead, we’re going to offer them a top-10 talent in the class: wide receiver Andre Rison, who would go on to compile a 12-year career that saw him earn the ninth-most career AV and put up the 15th-most AV per game (0.41). Rison in real life caught 743 passes, posting 13.7 yards per reception and turning 11.3% of them into touchdowns. With Metcalf and Rison, and aided by a stout offensive line, quarterback Jim McMahon might see a bit of a bounce in the late 80's/early 90’s and Chicago would be in a much better position for the near future.
13. Cleveland Browns — Tony Tolbert, DL, Texas-El Paso
Original Pick: Eric Metcalf, RB, Texas
The Cleveland Browns are in a unique position heading into this draft, as perhaps the only team without a clear hole on their roster. The late 80’s Cleveland offense was led by quarterback Bernie Kosar, running back Earnest Byner, and tight end Ozzie Newsome, and the defense was paced by defensive lineman Bob Golic and linebacker Clay Matthews Jr. They made the postseason each of the four previous seasons and six times in the decade, and were poised to continue dominating in the 1990’s if they just backfilled through the draft. They did just fine doing so with running back Eric Metcalf originally, so much so that he went even earlier in our mock re-draft here.
This time around, with Metcalf unavailable, the Browns will go out and continue to load up on their defense with defensive lineman Tony Tolbert. Tolbert had a solid nine-year career in the league, with a strong peak earning him the 13th-most AV per game (0.42). Tolbert was a stout lineman — both physically and production-wise — posting 6.6 sacks and 64.4 tackles per season in the league. This is a big come-up for him, too, having gone in the fourth round at 85th overall (to Dallas, again) in real life.
14. New York Jets — Tracy Simien, LB, TCU
Original Pick: Jeff Lageman, DL, Virginia
If you thought Schlereth’s rise was a real underdog story, wait until you hear about linebacker Tracy Simien: originally an undrafted free agent in a 12-round draft, Simien worked his way into an eight-year career where he played 117 games (88 starts). Though not a playmaking inside linebacker at all (he totaled just 5.0 sacks and five interceptions in his career), Simien’s classic thumper style was much more valuable in the pre-passing explosion NFL. He put up an average 70.0 tackles per 16-game season, and would go on to accrue 0.42 AV per game (11th-most among 1989 draftees). Teams missed big by letting him slip through their fingers, but now he gets vindication.
The New York Jets get Simien here, and while they could have used defensive line or defensive back even more (ranked worst and second-worst in position group AV, respectively), they still had a huge need at linebacker that he fills. Every other player at the defensive positions was at least a tier below Simien, so the Jets get an unspectacular but solid player to anchor the core of their defense and can fill at deeper positions later on.
15. Seattle Seahawks — Donnell Woolford, DB, Clemson
Original Pick: Andy Heck, OT, Notre Dame
Defensive back Donnell Woolford got bumped from his draft spot just ahead of this, but the Seattle Seahawks will gladly stop his fall here at 15. Woolford went on to have a nine-year career in the NFL, posting the 23rd-most AV per game (0.39) among draftees in 1989 and picking off 36 passes over his 126 games played. Woolford fills a hole in the Seattle defense, as their defensive backfield ranked eighth-worst in the league by positional AV coming into this draft. With a strong cornerback presence aiding them, these Seahawks are much more likely to fly.
Original pick offensive tackle Andy Heck will be coming up later, so we won’t go in too deep on him just yet. The Seahawks just didn’t need anything on offense (top-10 in position group AV at each offensive position except TE) nearly as much as they did a linebacker or defensive back.
16. New England Patriots — Andy Heck, OT, Notre Dame
Original Pick: Hart Lee Dykes, WR, Oklahoma State
Like I said, offensive tackle Andy Heck will be coming up. Sure enough, the New England Patriots nab him just a slot below where he originally went. In real life, Heck played through the 2000 season — a 12-year career in which he created 61 AV (16th-most in the class) while playing 185 games. His 0.33 AV per game isn’t stellar (42nd), but his durability and solidity as an offensive lineman helped him sustain a long and productive career. The Pats ranked fifth-worst in OT AV, so Heck’s steady presence should give them a little more certainty on the line.
New England’s original pick, wide receiver Hart Lee Dykes, probably would have had a reasonably productive career, but his career was cut short when he fractured his kneecap after just over a season in the league and also suffered an eye injury in a barroom fight.
17. Phoenix Cardinals — Trace Armstrong, DL, Florida
Original Pick: Joe Wolf, OT, Boston College
The Phoenix Cardinals nabbed an offensive tackle here in 1989, Boston College’s Joe Wolf. Wolf was a reasonable player in the NFL, starting 60 of the 94 games he entered and playing nine seasons. He just wasn’t a first-rounder in hindsight, as his 0.26 AV per game put him 74th among 1989 draftees.
The Cardinals also didn’t need as much help at OT as they did on defense. Earlier on, they plugged a hole in the middle of their offensive trench, but now they need to address their ninth-worst defensive line by position group AV. To do so, defensive lineman Trace Armstrong joins them. A versatile inside-outside lineman who could play tackle or end, Armstrong racked up 106 sacks across 211 games played, a mark that ranks 25th all-time. While he also didn’t have an incredibly high peak by AV, his 62 career AV ranks 15th among his peers and makes him a worthy selection for Big Red.
18. New York Giants — Tony Martin, WR, Mesa (CO)
Original Pick: Brian Williams, IOL, Minnesota
Wide receiver Tony Martin not only came out of the small, Division II school of Mesa State College in Colorado (now Colorado Mesa University), he was originally a fifth-round pick taken at 126 overall. Despite the humble origin story, Martin would go on to catch 593 passes for 15.3 yards per reception and a 9.4% touchdown rate across his 177-game, 13-year career. That led to the 26th-most AV per game (0.37) and 12th-most career AV among 1989 draftees. Not too shabby!
The New York Giants will be thrilled to get Martin in this selection, giving quarterback Phil Simms a dangerous downfield weapon. The Giants had the fourth-worst receiving corps by position group AV coming into 1989, and Martin could have stepped in as a starter quickly. Interior offensive lineman Brian Williams ended up a fine-but-unspectacular player in the pros, but gets bumped here because of positional need (the Giants ranked 13th in IOL) and a low AV per game (0.22; 90th among 1989 draftees). Offensive tackle could’ve been another spot addressed with the selection, but Williams doesn’t fit that bill and the value of Martin was too good to pass up.
19. New Orleans Saints —Jerry Fontenot, IOL, Texas A&M
Original Pick: Wayne Martin, DL, Arkansas
One of the longest-tenured players in this draft, interior offensive lineman Jerry Fontenot goes from a third-round pick to a first-rounder in this re-draft. Fontenot played 16 years in the NFL (starting in 195 games), racking up the 10th-most career AV (70) among 1989 draftees. He was also incredibly disciplined, posting just 21 penalties in 10 seasons (from 1995 to 2004, when individual penalties were tracked).
Fontenot was a prime anchor for his lines for nearly two decades, and will help our timeline’s New Orleans Saints, who ranked ninth-worst in IOL AV coming into this draft. Original pick and defensive lineman Wayne Martin still ended up a good player, and in fact was drafted higher in this exercise than in real life, but with the fifth-ranked DL AV coming into ’89, the Saints didn’t need him as much as they needed offensive line help.
20. Denver Broncos —Courtney Hall, IOL, Rice
Original Pick: Steve Atwater, DB, Arkansas
While we’re talking anchors of the offensive line, let’s slot the next-best one in for the Denver Broncos, who ranked 12th-worst in IOL AV coming into the ’89 Draft. That means center/guard Courtney Hall gets a slight raise, from an early second-rounder to a late first. Hall would go on to play eight seasons in the NFL, starting all 118 games he appeared in, and earning the 17th-most AV per game (0.41) among 1989 draftees. While his career wasn’t the longest, he is incredibly intelligent (having graduated high school at 16 and earning a double major in Economics and Managerial Studies from Rice in 1990 — after he had played in the NFL for one season) and makes for the perfect captain of an NFL O-line.
The Broncos originally got to steal future Hall of Fame defensive back Steve Atwater here, but he got snapped up way earlier this time around. Still, they couldn’t do much wrong either way: they were 10th-worst in DB AV coming into this season. The reason I leaned offensive line for them, however, was both to protect quarterback John Elway and because there is a deeper pool of quality defensive backs available at their next pick.
21. Los Angeles Rams — Jeff Lageman, DL, Virginia
Original Pick: Bill Hawkins, DL, Miami (FL)
The Los Angeles Rams have an easy change here, not at the position of need, but just in the success of the player. Original selection and defensive lineman Bill Hawkins just never panned out, turning in only 5.0 sacks in 42 games played in a four-year career thanks to a bevy of knee and leg injuries. He was once thought of as “the kind of player that can develop into a big-time pass rusher”, but the development never happened and he picked up just 6 career AV (112th among 1989 draftees).
Ranking 10th-worst in DL AV coming into this draft, though, there’s no reason for the Rams to change tack. Instead, they pick the best available defensive lineman in Jeff Lageman, originally taken a few slots higher, but still a strong pick here. Lageman would go on to create 47.0 sacks in 122 games, playing for 10 years in the league. His 44 career AV comes in tied for 27th-most among his draft class-mates, and he could have had more if not for a torn arm muscle in the first game of the 1998 season. Despite being an “undersized” defensive end at 6-foot-6 and 266 pounds, Lageman was still very successful and could fill the edge rusher role in the Los Angeles defense well.
22. Indianapolis Colts — Louis Oliver, DB, Florida
Original Pick: Andre Rison, WR, Michigan State
We see the ramifications of another draft-day steal unstolen here, as the Indianapolis Colts no longer get the best wideout in the draft class with Andre Rison gone well before they can take their card to the podium. All told, though, wide receiver wasn’t their biggest position of need, as they ranked fourth-worst in QB AV, 12th-worst in DL AV, and seventh-worst in DB AV coming into this draft. I definitely considered giving them quarterback Rodney Peete to fill the hole under center, but couldn’t justify the value even though he stuck in the league for 16 years.
Instead, the Colts will address their second-roughest position by drafting defensive back Louis Oliver. Oliver would eventually play eight years in the league, accruing the 24th-most AV per game (0.38). Primarily a run support safety, Oliver averaged 75 tackles and four interceptions in a full season. A versatile player with a larger frame that can hit or defend in the air well, Oliver is a strong pick for this Colts defense.
23. Houston Oilers — Eric Hill, LB, Louisiana State
Original Pick: David Williams, OT, Florida
One of the larger falls so far, linebacker Eric Hill is finally snapped up after dropping out of the top-10 of this class. The Houston Oilers will happily select the former LSU tackle machine (he averaged 104 in a full season) even if he was limited as a defensive playmaker (10 career turnovers forced and 9.0 sacks in 160 games played). Hill is still the kind of player defensive coordinators loved in the middle of the second level during this period, at 6-foot-2 and 258 pounds. His 52 career AV ranks 20th-best among 1989 draftees, solidifying that he deserves a first-round selection.
The Oilers’ only real position of need at the 1989 Draft was at running back (10th-worst in RB AV), but Hill was a solid tier above any of the next runners in the class. They still needed an infusion of linebacker talent, earning just the 14th-best mark in LB AV coming into the draft, so Hill fits the bill, both as a BPA pick and in terms of need. Offensive tackle David Williams was the original pick, but the Oilers were eighth-best in OT AV thanks to future Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews and company, so I decided to punt that position for now.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers — Burt Grossman, DL, Pitt
Original Pick: Tom Ricketts, IOL, Pitt
Here we coincidentally replace one Pitt product with another, ironically going to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers originally grabbed interior offensive lineman Tom Ricketts, who had a mediocre five-year career as a journeyman. He played in 53 games, starting just 15, and earned only 9 career AV (104th in the class). On top of that, the offensive line was actually one of Pittsburgh’s strengths in the late 80’s, as both the interior and tackle positions ranked 14th by position group AV.
Here, we give the Steelers defensive lineman Burt Grossman, essentially a BPA pick as noted before. Grossman did have a solid six-year career in the NFL, accruing the 42nd-most career AV (34) and turning in the 20th-most AV per game (0.40) among draftees in ’89. In just 86 games played, he racked up 43.5 sacks and 276 tackles. If not for a freak, career-ending neck injury in 1994, Grossman could have done even more in the NFL.
25. Miami Dolphins —Greg Jackson, DB, Louisiana State
Original Pick: Louis Oliver, DB, Florida
As mentioned in their earlier pick, the Miami Dolphins were a juggernaut in the 1970’s and 80’s, and only their defense was a flaw in the later part of that latter decade. Already having addressed the defensive line with the ninth pick of this draft, they’ll look to plug the secondary with some of the excellent talent still available here. Original pick Louis Oliver was snapped up before them this time, so they’ll have to go down their board ever-so-slightly in our re-draft.
That means we’re playing plug-and-replace with defensive back Greg Jackson here. Also a hybrid free-strong safety, Jackson averaged 70 tackles and 3 interceptions in a full season during the prime of his career, providing plenty of value in the turnover department (7 forced fumbles, 10 fumble recoveries over 150 games in that span). In his 12-year career, he racked up the 19th-most career AV (54) among 1989 prospects, despite originally being drafted in the late third round.
26. Los Angeles Rams — Marion Butts, RB, Florida State
Original Pick: Cleveland Gary, RB, Miami (FL)
Sometimes the teams get it right with addressing their needs, they just miss on the player. That’s the Los Angeles Rams with both of their selections, as they nailed the running back selection here at 26, but missed on selecting Cleveland Gary there. I should be clear: Gary wasn’t bad, and did accumulate the 32nd-most AV per game of his classmates — picking up 3,519 yards from scrimmage and 29 total touchdowns on 809 career touches. He just didn’t have the kind of impact in his career that his replacement did.
That replacement is former 183rd overall running back Marion Butts — originally a seventh-round selection (#DontPayForRB). Butts earned two Pro Bowl appearances in a seven-season career, playing in 104 games, generating 5,656 yards from scrimmage and 44 total touchdowns on 1,413 touches. His 0.34 AV per game comes in as the 37th-best mark in this draft class to boot, and while he didn’t have a superstar level career, he did yeoman’s work and was a solid NFL contributor.
27. Atlanta Falcons —David Williams, OT, Florida
Original Pick: Shawn Collins, WR, Northern Arizona
The Atlanta Falcons’ draft class couldn’t have seemed sexier in its original form on draft day, with Deion “Prime Time” Sanders and wide receiver Shawn Collins as their first-round selections. In actuality, though, only Sanders became good-to-great. Collins unfortunately played in just 49 games in his career, earning just 11 AV (95th in the class) across five seasons. To put it in context, his 98 receptions for 1,433 yards and five touchdowns for his career feels like a Julio Jones single season. He just couldn’t cut it in the NFL, bouncing eventually from the Canadian Football League to the World League of American Football (what would become NFL Europe) to the Arena Football League (now Indoor Football League).
Instead of Collins, then, we’ll give Atlanta a steady offensive line presence who lasted nine solid years in the league: offensive tackle David Williams. Williams played 128 games in his career, accruing the 30th-most career AV (43) among members of the ’89 draft class. The Falcons get to staunch the bleeding from their fourth-worst OT AV ranking with one of the 30 best University of Florida Gators players ever (according to The Gainesville Sun).
28. San Francisco 49ers — Jeff Uhlenhake, IOL, Ohio State
Original Pick: Keith DeLong, LB, Tennessee
The final pick of the first round goes to the defending Super Bowl champion San Francisco 49ers, in the middle of their dynastic run from the 80’s to the 90’s. They had very few true needs in the draft outside of linebackers (15th in LB AV) and offensive linemen (23rd in OT AV and 15th in IOL AV). It’s no surprise that one of the smartest franchises of the time knew themselves well enough to address a key hole by selecting linebacker Keith DeLong with their original pick. DeLong was no Pro Bowler, but did start in three seasons and earned a fairly surprising 0.36 AV per game (31st in the 1989 class). Still, he didn’t stick in the league and played just five years total.
So, we’ll address one of the other needs by marrying fit and value and give the dominant Niners a strong pivot for their offensive line with center Jeff Uhlenhake. Uhlenhake played 119 games in the NFL, starting 112 of them, over the course of 10 seasons. Despite his status as a mere fifth-round pick (121st overall), he chalked up the 18th-most AV per game (0.40) and 24th-most career AV (48) among 1989 draftees. There’s nothing an elite offense loves more than steady offensive lineman; Uhlenhake fits that bill.
