Who are the Biggest Spending Outliers at Each NFL Position Group
Breaking down team positional spending in context compared to league average
The Jacksonville Jaguars are spending a ton on their defensive line. The Dallas Cowboys have invested more than anyone else in their offensive line. These are things that will continually get repeated throughout the season and while they’re true, we won’t get much context added to what these teams are paying for this season. Jacksonville’s $62 million price tag sounds like a lot for a defensive line, but is it much crazier than what the top teams are spending at other positions relative to the rest of the league?
For that we can take a look at z-scores (standard deviations above the mean) for the top spending teams at each position. Basically, that can help show not just how much these teams are spending over the second-highest team, but how much of an outlier they are from where the league as a whole values each position.
Below are the z-scores for each position group in the league for 2018 along with the team and how much cap space is dedicated to that position this season. Cap figures come from Over The Cap.
Backing the market
Maybe it’s not a surprise the Pittsburgh Steelers come out as the biggest outlier with their current investment at running back given the overall state of the running back market. It also says a bit about the market that the $17-plus million investment is the lowest price tag among the positional groups yet still comes out as the furthest away from the league average. Pittsburgh isn’t the only team spending big on running back — the New York Giants just spent the second overall pick on Saquon Barkley and the Los Angeles Rams gave a massive contract extension to Todd Gurley just a few weeks ago — but the franchise tag standoff with Le’Veon Bell leaves the Steelers with big price tags one year at a time instead of the option of moving some of that money around over a multi-year deal.
It also doesn’t help Pittsburgh that Bell is now on his second consecutive franchise tag. An initial franchise tag gives a player a salary worth the average of the top five contracts at his position, but a second tag increases that price by 125 percent. Bell’s first tag came at a time when a few expensive veteran running back deals were still active, such as the final years of Adrian Peterson’s six-year/$85.3 million contract with the Minnesota Vikings. Now with Bell on that second tag, only his cap number from 2017 matters instead of the rest of the market, which has significantly fallen at the top. Even when then-Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins played on a second franchise tag last season at the league’s most expensive position, he only had the third-highest quarterback cap hit in the league. This season under the tag, Bell will cost $5.6 million more than the running back with the second-highest 2018 cap hit, LeSean McCoy.
A Pirate’s Treasure
The team with the biggest gap between it and the rest of the league with multi-year deals given out is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at wide receiver. Last offseason, the Bucs signed free agent DeSean Jackson to a three-year/$33.5 million deal to pair with Mike Evans in an attempt to strengthen the receiving corps for a young Jameis Winston. This offseason, Tampa Bay signed Evans to a five-year/$82.5 million extension. That will make Evans and Jackson the most expensive wide receiver duo in the league for 2018 at just over $29 million combined.
It’s arguable to how that investment has paid off so far. The Bucs ranked ninth in passing DVOA last season per Football Outsiders, but the team was undone by a league-worst defense. Tampa Bay will start the first three games this season with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center during a suspension for Winston.
Building the lines
Jacksonville’s $62 million is the most any team is spending on any one position group this season, but it only ranks fourth by z-score. The Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles are also spending at least $50 million across the defensive line and four other teams are spending at least $40 million. But while the Jaguars’ defensive line didn’t top the charts, the Jacksonville defense as a whole does. The $123.7 million spent on the overall defense came out with a z-score of 2.99, which was tops all the positional groups and blows away the 2.11 z-score for the 49ers on offense.
Along the offensive line, the Cowboys are the pioneers in spending big for the guys up front but the rest of the league has started to catch on. Dallas has $45.2 million invested in the line for 2018, but five other teams will spend at least $40 million and an additional 10 teams have a cap number of at least $35 million.
Lost in coverage
Seattle has the highest cost at safety, but neither of their top paid safeties are with the team at the moment. Kam Chancellor will miss at least this season, if not the rest of his career which appears likely. He has $9.6 million tied up with injury guarantees on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list. Earl Thomas has a $10.4 million cap hit, but he wants a new contract and has not yet reported to the team while he holds out.
With how much salary cap numbers change from year-to-year, this list isn’t likely to look the same for 2019. But as the season plays out, we can see if the money spent in these areas was well worth the premium paid.
