5 Things to Think About 5 Days Before the Election

There are five days left for ballots to be cast in an election season that some have called the most important of our lifetime. The stakes feel very high, and many — including leaders across philanthropy — are urging leaders at all levels of government and across all sectors of society to uphold their obligations to democracy and ensure a free, fair, and safe election season.

While many are understandably focused on the integrity of the election and its fair administration, we have also heard particular concern within our community about its aftermath: When will there be results? Will Americans accept the results? Will there be violence? There’s a lot we should be prepared for in these last five days, and the weeks after November 3rd as well.

This is one way in which the PACE community shines. PACE is a philanthropic laboratory for funders seeking to maximize their impact on democracy and civic life in America, but it is also a community in which we learn, experiment, collaborate, and model vibrant civic space. As a community, we’ve gathered over the last few weeks to explore various election scenarios that could play out, and share what we are thinking about now to do our part in strengthening democracy through whatever reality unfolds. We offer five questions for philanthropy to think about five days before Election Day.

1. Which scenarios are most likely at this point? In early October, PACE and Democracy Funders Network (DFN) partnered to host an initial election scenario planning call for philanthropic leaders. At the time, there were quite a few realities that looked plausible to play out, and nine hours later, the President announced he tested positive for COVID-19, which just underscores how much things can change in a short time. While the potential for curveballs in this election should not be underestimated, as of this writing, polling suggests a margin that favors a Biden victory, but it’s still entirely possible we could see a race too close to call. Florida is a battleground state that is likely to give us an early indication of how counting might play out. Experts predict Florida will be close, and because it has a long history of absentee voting and votes can begin being counted prior to Election Day, it will likely serve as a signal for where we are headed in this election season.
2. What can be done to mitigate the possibility of political violence on Election Day and in the aftermath? With more than four in ten supporters of both President Trump and Vice President Biden saying they will not accept election defeat and seven in ten Americans concerned over the risks of election-related violence, tensions are undoubtedly high. (Though, it should be noted, research also suggests that perceptions of violence may be higher than the likelihood it will happen.) There are ways to mitigate the risk of violence and de-escalate tensions, including by reminding us that the people working elections are our neighbors (check out Joy to the Polls and Election Hero Day). Funders can also work to mitigate tensions that lead to violence by consistently reminding any audiences in which they have access and influence that (a.) it’s important to take the time to count every vote, (b.) that we might see red or blue shifts as ballots are counted, and (c.) we should expect results may take a while to tabulate. As evidence, The New York Times published an interactive resource that outlines the vote counting estimates and deadlines in all 50 states, and the takeaway is clear: many states will not have complete results on election night. Efforts should be made to emphasize that this is a sign that the process is working and to reinforce calm among the American public.
3. How will we know if there has been legitimate fraud, interference, or foul play? Doubt in the legitimacy of election results has been seeded for weeks by partisan actors and foreign adversaries. There are a few bi-partisan commissions that can be looked to for guidance on the facts: National Council on Election Integrity and National Taskforce on Election Crises (which even released a November 4 toolkit). In addition, the National Association of Secretaries of State launched #TrustedInfo2020 to promote election officials as trusted sources of election information. While it’s not impossible for mistakes to occur in an election, our federal election administration system is designed in such a way that makes it very difficult for there to be large-scale fraud that impacts the outcome. The major advice is to not give credence to claims around fraud that appear isolated and/or cannot be verified; this Disinformation Defense Toolkit provides helpful guidance, as does Election SOS and Free&Fair.org.
4. What can philanthropy be doing now to prepare for the days and weeks afterwards? Beyond giving your team the day off to vote or volunteer on Election Day, time would be well spent in these last few days pre-emptively organizing for rapid response within your community, however events may unfold. While people are deeply concerned about “the wrong” results, they also believe coming together is important regardless of which side wins. This is a moment to both leverage and deepen social cohesion, and having a coordinator leading those efforts by geography, sector, and community will be key. For inspiration, here are examples of the type of support some groups are already thinking about: PACE and DFN will host a post-election debrief for our funder networks; Oregon Humanities will host a statewide community conversation; Citizen University produced a guide for gathering on election night. Many more efforts will emerge to promote healing and reconciliation in the days to come. These are the types of efforts that need thoughtful planning now. Of course, funders with unallocated or reserved grantmaking budget can consider supporting a variety of response efforts, depending on the needs that emerge.
5. What do we have going for us? With such a tumultuous campaign and season filled with curveballs, hyper-partisanship, and disinformation, it can be difficult to see what is going well. To that end, it is worth noting that as of this writing, over 79 million Americans have already cast their ballots — the highest early vote count in election history, and that’s with days still to go before November 3rd. In fact, while one initial estimate suggested that this election season would see 150 million total votes cast — which would be the highest turnout since 1908 — the same person now suggests that might be a “lowball estimate.” On Election Day, PACE is going to do its part to promote the #CivicBrightSpots during this election season by releasing a thread of positive election stories worth raising up. Follow along on PACE’s twitter.

Many more resources exist to support groups through this election season, including this comprehensive and aggregated resource list compiled by Zoe Hudson from the Transition Integrity Project. While this piece is largely focused on the national election — and of course, there are many important state and local elections and ballot measures as well — we hope it adds to your toolbox of support and provides a mechanism for focus as we near Election Day. Then our community can come together to talk about what’s to follow in whatever reality we land — both through January’s inauguration and the longer-term implications on democracy and civic life.