The 2020 Election: A historic civic achievement
Months (and in some cases, years) of careful and thoughtful planning and coordination went in to ensuring the 2020 was a historic election — this is true on multiple levels and of many leaders across society. First, it was mostly smoothly administered (despite significant challenges of underfunding, chaotic primaries, fears of political violence, and an active global pandemic). It was also historic in terms of its engagement as well. While official turnout numbers are still being calculated as votes continue to be counted, we already know that participation was higher in this election than any in modern history, and probably any in at least a century. For those of us who believe that democracy is larger than politics, we can and should still strive for even higher turnout — and more civic engagement on a more sustained basis — but we can also celebrate the gains and achievement that this election, in particular, represents.
“The fact that so many of our fellow citizens participated in this election is a positive sign of the health of our democracy and a reminder to the world of its strength. No matter how you voted, your vote counted.”
-Former President George W. Bush, Nov. 8, 2020
“In this election, in circumstances we’ve never experienced, Americans turned out in numbers never seen … But for this democracy to endure, it requires our active citizenship and sustained focus on the issues– not just in an election season, but all the days in between.”
-Former President Barack Obama, Nov. 7, 2020
What do we know (so far) about turnout?
The U.S. Elections Project’s estimates place overall turnout at about 159.6 million people, with over 100 million voting early. Out of an eligible population of 239.2 million, this equals 66.7%. Of those:
• About 35.9 million voted early in-person
• About 65.6 million voted by mail
• About 58.1 million voted in-person on November 3
Two notes: 1) votes are still being tabulated so these numbers will change [they were current as of this writing on Dec. 14], and 2) not every state differentiates between early votes cast by mail versus in person.
If this holds, it will represent the highest voter turnout rate since at least 1908 (when it was 65.7%).
We know we are a different polity than we were in 1908; not only was our population smaller then, we were a smaller electorate — women, 18 year-olds, and some people of color didn’t yet have the right to vote, and even African-Americans who did have voting rights were subject to harsh Jim Crow era suppression and intimidation tactics.
One way we might underscore this significance is by looking at turnout rates not just as a percentage of the population eligible to vote, but as a percentage of the total population. Even here, we see record turnout with a conservative projection of at least 45% turnout when calculated as a percentage of the population, exceeding the previous high of 43.9% in 2008 (in 1908 it was 17.1%).
What stories do those numbers tell us?
The numbers tell us about record-breaking turnout — in fact, only nine states are not likely to break their own previous records in this election. They also tell us the story of not only an election day, but an election season with historic numbers of votes cast early, either by mail or in-person before November 3.
While these are voting-heavy fun facts (and again, based on numbers that may change), there are some other interesting civic bright spots worth tracking as we learn more. These include other ways people engaged in the election (such as by serving as poll workers, donating their buildings to serve as polling sites, and participating in GOTV efforts), the number of citizens who put themselves on the ballot to run for office, and how many employers gave paid time off to vote and volunteer.
A less-than-bright-spot? While these numbers are historic, it also means that about 80 million people who were eligible to cast a ballot did not do so (by choice or otherwise).
What do we know about who turned out?
There is still much, much more to understand here, but here are some recent comparisons between some populations groups that many folks follow closely.
If these continue to hold, we are looking at a younger, more racially diverse, and more educated electorate in 2020 than we had in the 2016 general election (here’s a note of caution about over-reliance on exit polls, especially for sense-making).
Who they voted for (or against), why, and what that means for the implications on democracy and civic life, will be undoubtably be the subject of much analysis and debate in the coming months. One thing is sure: there is certainly much to understand about ourselves, each other, and our country at this important time for our republic and our experiment in self-governance.
Author’s Note: This piece was originally published with data retrieved as of November 10. It was updated on November 24 and again on December 14.
