Is Hakan Çalhanoğlu the Best Deep-Lying Midfielder in the World?
“I’m the best playmaker right now. After me, Rodri, then Toni Kroos, Kimmich and Enzo Fernández.”
The fact that these words from Hakan Çalhanoğlu came after Inter’s convincing Champions League win against Atletico Madrid perhaps gave them added weight, but you can’t read them without doing a double take.. Is he right?
Çalhanoğlu placed himself ahead of Europe’s premier center midfielders, crediting his ability to score and create from distance. The former AC Milan player said, “I will always look for that type of pass because I do not like to always play behind or with the teammate next to me, I like to verticalize, play fast and create spaces for my teammates who attack the depth” (ilmessaggero.it). While recognizing that the above-mentioned players are good at managing play, he is bored by “five-meter passes” (sempreinter.com).
With the Scudetto almost decided and their dominant showing in the past Champions League knockout match, CBS Sports pundits Matteo Bonetti and Marco Messina — who cover Serie A broadcasting in the USA — are beginning to ring the bell at the Inter star’s omission in the debate for the best deep-lying midfielder. Are they right?
First, a distinction. Do all of these players — Hakan, Kroos, Rodri, Kimmich, Enzo — even play the same position? Today, they might each be categorized as variations of a “regista,” a conductor who sits in front of the defense, dictates their team’s rhythm with the ball and controls its ability to progress up the field. They are expected to play vertically and horizontally while contributing significantly to their team’s defensive shape. Comfort playing out of pressure and accurate, progressive passing are pivotal skills.
To make a comprehensive comparison, we compiled statistics from FBref.com based on three main aspects of the games: defensive actions (tackles won, interceptions, percentage of tackles won etc.), possession (pass completion, progressive passes, percentage of successfully receiving the ball etc.) and offensive actions (expected assisted goals, expected non-penalty goals etc.). We compared midfielders with stats in the top 200 for at least 13 out of the 19 parameters. We filtered for players who could play as a defensive midfielder according to transfermarket.com and who have played the equivalent of more than ten games this season. We also made sure to include players who Çalhanoğlu himself mentioned in the interview.
This left us with fourteen players: Exequiel Palacios (Bayer Leverkusen), Manuel Ugarte Ribeiro (Paris Saint-Germain), Eduardo Camavinga (Real Madrid), Yves Bissouma (Tottenham Hotspur), Benjamin André (Lille), Stijn Spierings (Toulouse), Joey Veerman (PSV Eindhoven), Nicolò Barella (Internazionale), Rodri (Manchester City), Pascal Groß (Brighton), Toni Kroos (Real Madrid), Joshua Kimmich (Bayern Munich), Enzo Fernández (Chelsea). These are not necessarily the fourteen best midfielders in the world, however they appear frequently among the top 200 players for each of the 19 parameters.
Possession — Fundamentals of a Regista
We wanted to look at statistics such as progressive passes, expected assisted goals, pass completion and ball retention, the characteristics of a quality regista. Çalhanoğlu prides himself on his ability not to rely on short passes, yet, compared to his counterparts, he underperforms in pass completion rate for every pass type — short (passes completed within 5 and 15 yards), medium (passes completed within 15 and 30 yards) and long (passes completed past 30 yards).
The first figure shows that Toni Kroos and Rodri outperform Hakan Çalhanoğlu in every category, while Camavinga, Bissouma and Ugarte are above him in medium and long passes. This could be due to discrepancies in the raw number of attempted passes, but the numbers show that Kroos attempts an average of four more long passes per 90 minutes than Çalhanoğlu. Rodri, on the other hands, attempts fewer than three long passes per 90 minutes compared to Çalhanoğlu, but his completion rate is 15 percent more successful.
Lastly, although some of the other aforementioned players have a better pass completion rate for long passes than Çalhanoğlu, their long pass attempts are well below that of the Inter regista (Çalhanoğlu attempts at least 5 more long balls than Camavinga per 90 minutes and that number increases when compared to the other players).
How well can these players play out of pressure? To capture this aspect of the game, we compare the percentage of passes completed to progressive passes per 90 minutes (second figure) and miscontrols — amount of times a player failed at controlling the ball — against dispossessions (third figure). Although dispossessions could be an acceptable indication of how players perform under pressure, it is also influenced by other variables such as a players position, the teams playing style and their teammates.
Unsurprisingly, Kroos and Rodri both demonstrate an exceptional ability to both play progressively and complete those passes at a high rate. Although very distinct, Manuel Ugarte and Joey Veerman perform high on opposite ends of the chart, likely due to their playing styles. Ugarte can be described as a more quiet player moving forward, but one who rarely misplaces a pass. Veerman instead thrives on high risk-high reward passes, where his main goal is to thread the ball through defending lines. Çalhanoğlu’s success rate in each category is below average compared to most of these contemporaries.
In addition to passing, being able to handle constant pressure is an important component of a well rounded midfielder. In the third figure, the closer a player is to the bottom left corner of the graph the better, since it signifies that they are able to retain possession of the ball while under pressure.
Çalhanoğlu thrives on holding the ball, his dispossessions per 90 minutes is equal to 0.2, meaning that on average he’s dispossessed only once every five games. This does not directly mean that Çalhanoğlu tops players like
Rodri or Kroos in evading dispossession. It’s worth accounting for differences between competitions here. While the Premier League is notorious for its high intensity, the Serie A is known for its low-blocks and defensive-minded strategies. The defensive nature of the Serie A most likely plays in favor of a deep lying playmaker. Although Çalhanoğlu is hardly dispossessed when having the ball under control, he does sometimes struggle when receiving the ball. Players such as Kroos, Rodri and Kimmich are less prone to miscontrolling when receiving the ball.
Although one wouldn’t expect a regista to frequently assist goals, it can help to distinguish a multifaceted player from a one-dimensional player. An example of this is Joey Veerman. The PSV Eindhoven midfielder accumulates a large quantity of key passes — passes that directly lead to a shot — and expected assisted goals per 90 minutes (FBref). This is impressive for a player who at times plays in front of the midfield as it sets him apart from other possible registas, yet it’s counterbalanced by his low pass completion. On the other hand, Exequiel Palacios and Toni Kroos register the more expected assisted goals per game than Çalhanoğlu while completing a higher percentage of passes.
Çalhanoğlu claimed to be the best in his position due to his ability to play vertically and cause danger to opposing teams from far out. Yet, when we compare his performance both in terms of fundamental (pass completion/progression and miscontrols/dispossessions) and non-fundamental (key passes and expected assisted goals) functions of a regista, he falls short compared to his competition.
What About Çalhanoğlu’s List?
Çalhanoğlu’s list is quite convincing. Most of the players he mentions are considered the best deep-lying playmakers in the world, including Çalhanoğlu himself. In this section we’ll expand even more to include defensive actions and direct involvements in shots and goals.
The following visualizations represent each player’s output in regards to the other thirteen players within the cohort. For example, Hakan Çalhanoğlu’s key passes stat means that, in comparison to the rest of the players, he places in the 71st percentile. This is better than Rodri, who places in the 57th percentile. What stands out immediately from Çalhanoğlu’s pie chart is his non-penalty expected goals. The only player from the list with similar goal threat is Enzo Fernández, although Enzo’s much lower in the key passes percentile. This is in line with Çalhanoğlu’s reasoning on why he’s the best since “hardly others” are able to score from long range. Though he’s right about his superiority regarding long shots, this aspect of the game is diminishing in value. Recent trends indicate that while these kinds of shots have become more efficient, teams are now less likely to utilize them as they are nearly guaranteed to lose possession.
Yet, accuracy from afar still comes in handy. In terms of set plays, Çalhanoğlu is quite dominant, which is reflected by him being placed at the 85th percentile within the Dead Pass to Shot (average set plays that end up in a shot per 90 minutes) category. The only player who bests the Interista is Joshua Kimmich, who stands at the 92nd percentile.
Defensive roles are not customarily associated with registas, but as football has evolved so has the necessity for versatility. The blue section in each pie chart represents defensive actions such as total tackles won per 90 (TklW), tackles against dribblers, successful tackles (Tkl % Won) and interceptions. Like Kimmich, Çalhanoğlu’s successful tackles are high, meaning he’s successful in recovering the ball whenever he challenges a player, but this does not happen often. Although Toni Kroos has a low success rate when it comes to tackles won, he attempts them at a higher rate. Kroos recovers the ball 36% more than Çalhanoğlu per 90 minutes and intercepts the ball the same amount. Among the five midfielders, Kimmich is the one that performs the best, probably due to his frequent positioning as a right-back.
From the data that we reviewed, taking into account all factors, it’s hard to ignore Toni Kroos’ ability to perform at a high standard when compared to his peers. From his defensive presence, winning the ball more times per 90 minutes than his peers, to his almost immaculate ability to distribute and hold onto the ball. Although he’s not such a threat in front of goal compared to Çalhanoğlu (npxG), his ability to provide danger through set plays and from normal play (xAG) is highly impressive. Without a doubt Kroos performs at a level above the rest.
Furthermore, Çalhanoğlu’s comparison to other regista’s begs the question of what you’re looking for in a deep-lying midfielder. Even though Andrea Pirlo was sublime at set pieces and shots from a distance, Xavi Hernandez didn’t need that facet of the game to be considered on a similar pedestal as the Italian international. What’s certain is that in order to be considered the best in any position, one must first dominate the fundamentals. Rodri is a great example of this, with his ability to make sure each pass reaches its destination even with his constant threading of the ball through opponent lines. While Çalhanoğlu’s form has been impressive lately, and he is among the best at creating chances from afar, his claim to be the best deep lying midfielder is still a long shot given his passing deficiencies. Yet, if Inter continue to impress, we might be taking Çalhanoğlu more seriously come May.
