Keep the Ball, Madrid Will Take the Win
Critics said Real Madrid were fortunate to get past Guardiola’s possession machine at the Etihad. The numbers prove them wrong.
Nearly a year ago, when the second leg of the Champions League semifinal between Real Madrid and Manchester City began, I felt a sinking, uneasy feeling set in within ten minutes of kickoff. After two heroic saves by Courtois, uneasiness gave way to dread. By halftime, dread became despair. We went into the break two goals down, looking nothing like the team that could erase two-goal deficits at will, a team that had done as much against City in 2022.
The second half began and the comeback never came. Real Madrid were booted from the competition in an unceremonious 4–0 rout. In all my years of watching those all-white kits lift trophies and perform miracles under the bright European lights, I don’t recall ever seeing them perform as horribly as this. The occasional blowout loss is an expected part of any loyal, decades-long fandom. As a fan since 2009, my heart has been pierced by the images of similar defeats more than once before. That one felt particularly humiliating. I couldn’t put my finger on why until Madrid returned to the Etihad last Wednesday.
By now you know the story: Madrid opened the scoring with a sublime build-up led by Jude Bellingham, before being peppered with 33 shots from City over 120 minutes — only one of which found the net. After winning a penalty shootout, Real Madrid were met with a mix of praise and condemnation, the latter mostly coming from City fans and their temporary surrogates in the FC Barcelona community. Those dissenting against Madrid’s approach to the match levied charges of “parking the bus,” a phrase coined by Jose Mourinho — a former Madrid manager and a virtual synonym for the same.
According to critics, City controlled the game, dominated Madrid, and were hard done by Lady Luck. The absence of goals on City’s part was said to be a product of both misfortune and a defensive style of play unbecoming of historic clubs like Real Madrid. These critics, neutral or otherwise, misunderstood Madrid’s approach to this game, which reflects a broader footballing philosophy that has propelled their unique success in this competition.
Madrid’s position, while deep lying, felt less like being cornered, and more like a loaded spring ready to strike.
Like any Big Club™, Madrid typically retains more possession than their weaker opponents. As league leaders this season, they are second only to Barcelona in this regard. However, possession has never been the indicator of success to them. Starting in 2016, Madrid began an unprecedented three-peat in the UCL. During the first run, they held 59% possession in their only loss (2–0 vs Wolfsburg). Of the five other goals they conceded in that tournament, three were dispatched during the sloppy final minutes of another ball-dominant match by Shaktar Donetsk.
The following year, Madrid conceded three goals against Warsaw with 58% possession. In the semifinal tie against our cross-city rivals, Atletico Madrid, Real were dealt their only loss, followed by their only shutout. Each of these matches marked our two best possession games that season. During our third consecutive Champions League title run, we eclipsed 60% possession in each of our only two losses.
This season represents that same paradox. In all competitions, only Atletico Madrid has managed to best Carlos Ancelotti’s team this season, both times with no more than 31% possession. It’s worth noting that Atletico is known for letting their opponents have the ball on a regular basis.
In an era where Manchester City threatens with a treble every year, it is understandable to defer to Pep Guardiola’s brand of football as the superior approach. Though not as branded as the fearsome “Tika Taka” that once had world football at the mercy of both Barcelona and the Spanish National Team, City’s significant custody of the ball is as self-evident as their recent success of five league titles in six years. Yet Real Madrid — and myself, I must confess — are unmoved by abstract notions of the “right way to play.”
The difference between a parked bus and an idling Formula One car might come down to who you support.
After all, Madrid’s approach to City this year did not differ that much from 11 months ago. In the legs played in Manchester, City had more of the ball, and took more shots. In fact, this time around they took over twice as many as the year prior. But quality ruled over quantity on the day. They missed twice as many shots as they took in the first leg. Their shots averaged 0.08 xG, a fangless figure that mirror’s Madrid’s own performance the year prior. Even their shots on target — save for Kevin de Bruyne’s point-blank equalizer from a rare Antonio Rudiger error — yielded very little threat. PSxG (post shot expected goals) measures how likely an on-target effort is to score. In that regard, none but City’s lone goal offered more than a 27% chance, and most of their shots on goal were far less threatening than that.
That’s a big reason I was not nearly as despondent last Wednesday as I was the year prior. Most of City’s possession and shots felt harmless. Madrid’s position, while deep lying, felt less like being cornered, and more like a loaded spring ready to strike. That proved true not only once Rodrygo opened the scoring in the 12th minute, but any time Madrid found a way forward. Despite spending an unusual amount of time in their own defensive third, they mostly insisted on trying to work the ball through the midfield lines rather than chase a long ball. Heroic stops by Manuel Akanji and Bernardo Silva in the midfield and more than one blistering run by Kyle Walker helped reduce the threat on City’s goal.
The difference between a parked bus and an idling Formula One car might come down to who you support. In this instance, City supporters would’ve loved for Madrid to get out of the way so they could score, whereas Madrid fans might emphasize that defending is a part of the game. For Carlos Ancelotti and company there is never one predetermined approach to the game. They play what’s in front of them, according to what is most beneficial.
Madrid isn’t restricted by the looming accusations of “anti-football” any more than they’re restricted by the lack of a true center forward or healthy defenders. They don’t play to accumulate more xG, more possession, or any shiny new metrics that have increasingly dominated analysis of the game. These factors are often beneficial to teams, but can create a discord between on-paper dominance and actual fact. In some ways, possession and shots can offer the illusion of control. But avarice, containment, smart tackles, and swift counterattacks can be its own authority against that. As football’s most famous bus driver, Mourinho, once summarized, “They can take the ball home, I take the three points.”
