2023 Cricket World Cup 🏏
How to do our own analysis
Cricket is a game of glorious uncertainties, that consistently stump the statisticians. World Cups, like the 2023 edition currently underway in India, are no exception.
That said, a bit of analysis is fun — and this article describes how we might do our own.
To aide our analysis, I’ve built a simple simulation tool —that simulates the possible outcomes of future matches.
You can find it here: https://nuuuwan.github.io/cwc23/
🎲#CWC23 Random Outcome
Click the “Dice” on the bottom menu.
The simplest type of simulation is a random outcome. That is what would happen if we picked winners for each game, based on their pre-match odds.
For example, the current odds for the Group Stage match between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh are 57% to 43%. Hence, in 100 random simulations, Sri Lanka should win 57 times, to Bangladesh’s 43.
(Note, in this example, while Sri Lanka is the favourite, probabilistically Bangladesh could also win.)
In this way, we simulate every match, and we get a random outcome for every match in the Group Stage.
