2018 On Blast Reviews

Caleb Receives: Latavius Murray, Michael Gallup
Paul Receives: Golden Tate

Caleb’s Grade: B-
Paul’s Grade: A

umgalap [11:58 AM]
Initial thoughts @benny
Great deal for @pliang got maximum value of Murray before shipping him out
Savvy trade

benny [1:16 PM]
I mean I think it’s a deal you needed
Just like my deal was
But Paul wins in both instances

Benny Receives: Emmanuel Sanders, Duke Johnson
Paul Receives: Christian McCaffrey

Benny’s Grade: B-
Paul’s Grade: A

Benny Receives: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeSean Jackson
Gordon Receives: Melvin Gordon

Benny’s Grade: C+ Gordon’s Grade: A+

Again, let’s start by looking at how each of these players are doing.

• CMC is currently the RB9
• Sanders is currently the WR6
• Melvin Gordon is the RB6 (even with Bye and missing a game)
• Juju is WR16
• DJax is WR18
• Duke Johnson is probably not worth talking much about since his volume is so low

Initially this trade did not look good. However, after looking at the numbers, it’s a bit closer than I initially thought. Juju is actually #2 overall in RZ targets (3rd in completions). Benny obviously needed to make a move this week with Gordon on bye. He’s looking to make a huge ceiling play to hopefully steal a win by acquiring 2 high end WRs.

With that mindset, I think these trades accomplished that overall. There are many question marks however, which make the trades less than ideal. Sanders is swirling in trade rumors, clouding his rest of season fantasy value a little bit. He’s also 31 this season and you have to wonder how long he can sustain his current level of production. Juju, despite how well he’s performed so far this season, is still the WR2 on his team. Djax is boom/bust and has boomed in about half of his games so far. He’s probably the WR3 on his team behind Evans and Godwin. Duke is not seeing enough volume to be startable at all.

For a single week perspective, this trade accomplishes what it was meant to. However, the longer term sacrifice was not worth it in my opinion. At this point in the season, nothing’s really set in stone yet, even a loss in Week 8 would not cement missing the playoffs. Respect Benny for the ceiling play though. Gutsy.

Post Week 8 Analysis:
Unfortunately the ceiling gamble did not pay off and now the trade deadline looms to decide Sander’s fate. Fitzmagic might return which could help Djax get more boom games. The Browns have cleared out Jackson and Haley — who knows what this means for Duke or the Browns offense, but this at least gives Duke a chance for relevancy.

- Alex

Jesse Receives: Keenan Allen, Mark Ingram
Alex Receives: Michael Thomas

Jesse’s Grade: A
Alex’s Grade: B

Trading 2 pieces for a stud is almost always a good move… except in this case, I think AA might have overpaid a little bit, especially since the depth on his own roster is not necessarily the best. Michael Thomas was looking like the overall WR1 through the first 3 weeks of the season, but has cooled down since then as Drew Brees has started utilizing his various other weapons.

Keenan Allen may not be the PPR monster we’ve all come to expect since the Chargers seem to be utilizing more passes to Gordon & Ekeler more these days, but he’s still a WR1 with consistent production.

So the question is this — is the gap between Michael Thomas and Keenan Allen worth a Mark Ingram? If Ingram’s production in his first game back is any indication, I don’t think it is.

Ingram is an every week RB2 with RB1 upside, and in a league where it’s hard to find consistent RB value, that’s worth a lot, even if Kamara is the go-to guy in that offense. Overall great move by Jesse, who seems to have a thing for Keenan Allen, getting the RB depth that he needed desperately. This move seems unlike other AA moves of the past which are more value/need based, but kudos to him for going with his gut and taking a big swing at a homerun.

- Benny

Theo Receives: LeSean McCoy
Caleb Receives: Leonard Fournette

Theo’s Grade: B
Caleb’s Grade: B+

**Grades not made with hindsight, but commentary includes Week 6 events

Theo deals away the ailing “soft” Leonard Fournette whom he traded for at the beginning of the year, and gets back a player that’s actually startable at the moment in Shady, who finished a respectable but not spectacular RB19 with 12.4 points in his first start for the Beer Bears.

Shady is pretty much all the 31 stranked Buffalo Bills’ offense even has to offer, so the volume/utilization will be there, even if the TDs will not. And Shady has made it this far through the year despite his legal troubles, but he has also missed some time with various ailments. Caleb receives a presumed RB1 whenever Fournette gets back, but who knows when that is? Yahoo has him projected coming back in week 8, but it’s possible that he’s not back until after the Jaguar’s bye in week 10, and even then, how effective will he be? Yeldon has certainly done an admirable job in his stead, so a timeshare could be in the works when he’s back, dropping him to a lower end RB2.

On the flip side, Caleb probably wouldn’t be starting Shady anyway so it seems like a decent gamble to hit on future value. Decent move for both sides, with Theo actually winning the trade based on present value, but Caleb getting the slight nod in the grading as the gamble does seem like it could pay dividends at some point.

Kong Receives: Stefon Diggs, Alshon Jeffery
Caleb Receives: Kareem Hunt

Kong’s Grade: Good job. Looks much better than it used to. Caleb’s Grade: Pretty strong now.

konky [4:57 PM]
lol so i have effectively traded kareem hunt/dalvin cook/arob to caleb for sony michel/sterling shepherd/alshon/diggs

alexaur [4:57 PM]
And @umgalap turned cmac, Michel, Shepard, Jeffrey into hunt, cook, Edelman

alexaur [5:00 PM]
Gj @konky your team looks much better than it used to imo

dannychu [5:01 PM]
I can’t tell if it did

dannychu [5:04 PM]
Caleb team pretty strong now once he moves the pieces around on the starting squad…Tate, edelman, flash, hunt, McCoy, cook… strong

Paul Receives: Julio Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Jamaal Williams
Theo Receives: Chris Thompson, Jordan Howard, Larry Fitzgerald

Paul’s Grade: A+
Theo’s Grade: D

In the second blockbuster trade of the week, Theo has moved Julio Jones, Beast Mode, and J. Williams for Larry “Legend” Fitzgerald, Chris Thompson, and Jordan Howard…

For Theo’s sake I hope he values K-Pop as a brand more accurately than he values his players, because this is probably the most lopsided deal of the year.

First off, let’s take a look at the players Theo gave away.

Julio Jones — Everyone knows Julio’s résumé by now. A surefire every week WR1, a potential future HOF caliber player, a league winner. Currently the overall WR7 while having scored 0 TDs, leads all receivers in yardage at 502, and has seen 46 targets which is tied for 4th in the league. The lack of TDs has been frustrating for owners no doubt, but I think Julio will find the end zone sooner rather than later in the Falcons’ high powered offense, especially with Calvin Ridley opposite of him demanding attention. Julio has been in the top 3 in receiving yards for 4 straight seasons and looks to be trending in that direction this year as well. While Julio’s total receptions have fallen off from his absurd peak of 136 in 2016 as the Falcons have tried to give Matt Ryan some other weapons, he’s still on pace for a top 10 finish in that category with somewhere in the range of 80–90 catches. Barring injury, he’s a lock to finish inside the top 10 of WRs. This guy is the best player in this trade, hands down, and the person receiving the best player usually wins the trade.

Marshawn Lynch — I won’t get into Beast Mode’s legendary career or previous stats here. What matters is his current fantasy production at age 32, after coming out of retirement last season. And it’s actually pretty darn good. Through Week 4, Marshawn is overall the RB9, which would actually classify him as an RB1, though he’s still more of a TD dependent RB2 based on his volume and lack of receptions. Still, he’s only behind Zeke, Gurley, and Matt Breida in total rushing yards, and will continue to see red zone opportunities. He’s probably the 2nd or 3rd best player in this trade, depending on how you view Chris Thompson.

Jamaal Williams — This tweet tells you everything you need to know about Jamaal Williams.

He can be safely dropped at any time if Paul wanted to, especially if Aaron Jones is healthy, but Paul had to extract additional value out of the trade anyway. If there’s any silver lining to this trade, it’s that this concession on Theo’s part means almost nothing.

Let’s look at the players Theo got in return…

Larry Fitzgerald — Facts:

1. Fitz has averaged over 100 receptions and 1000+ yards receiving in the last 3 years, after moving into the slot at age 32. He led the league in receptions with 107 in 2016 and came in 2nd (behind Jarvis Landry) in 2017 with 109. This allowed him to produce reliable high end WR2/WR1 numbers for fantasy purposes, and many thought that perhaps he was an ageless wonder who could continue to do so this year.

2. This was in Bruce Arians’ high powered Arizona offense, led by veteran QB Carson Palmer.

3. The Cardinals are now in re-build mode, Arians is gone, and the new offensive coordinator is Mike McCoy. Theo should be familiar with Mike McCoy, who was the Chargers’ head coach from 2013–2016. Despite a playoff win in 2013, the Chargers went 9–7, 4–12, and 5–11 in the next 3 seasons, and the Chargers moved on from him and the city of San Diego (ouch).

4. In 2017, as offensive coordinator for the Denver Broncos, he was fired mid-season after a 6-game losing streak. This man is the current OC for the Cardinals, and the offense is being led by a rookie QB out of UCLA who Theo should also be familiar with, Josh Rosen.

Ok, so maybe there’s hope that Josh Rosen can make something of this offense compared with Sam Bradford, who was atrocious through 3 games, but I wouldn’t bank on it. To top it all off, Larry seems to be dealing with a nagging hamstring issue (Fournette knows a thing or two about this), and while he hasn’t missed any game time, these things don’t just disappear at age 35. It’s pretty fair to wonder whether this is his last season of professional football. There’s a reason he’s currently behind Laquon Treadwell and Rashard Higgins in scoring, both of whom are available as FAs right now. I don’t know his current WR rank, because I didn’t want to count that high. Just based on name alone, Fitz should be a hold, but I wouldn’t start him with any confidence and I certainly wouldn’t expect him to return to his numbers of the last 3 years.

Chris Thompson — Arguably the 2nd best player in this deal, CT is a PPR scoring machine, and we all know Alex Smith loves to dump it off to his RBs. Through the first two games of the season, we all saw what he could do in the passing game, with 19 catches for 155 yards, and 9 rushes added for 66 yards. These games produced ~25 and ~22 Fantasy Points, which may be close to his ceiling on a week-to-week basis. However, in week 3 we also saw his floor, as Adrian Peterson ran all over the Packers and Thompson’s skills weren’t needed, finishing with only 2 Fantasy Points. Chris Thompson is certainly a viable RB2 in PPR, but is somewhat game script dependent going forward.

Jordan Howard — I’ve written extensively on Jordan Howard in a previous On-Blast, so we don’t need to revisit what he’s capable of. However, that was under run-first, conservative play caller John Fox. Jordan Howard is still certainly capable of putting out those numbers given the volume, but it seems like new head coach Matt Nagy has taken the offense in a new direction. Jordan Howard has received 15, 14, 24, and 11 touches so far, good for an average of 16, not far off the mark of 17.25 last year. But what should be concerning is his usage in last week’s 48–10 blowout of TB, where he should’ve received the bulk of the carries to ice the game, but Tarik Cohen got to close the game out instead. Also concerning is that he has yet to eclipse the 100-yard mark in any game and is averaging a career-low 3.2 YPA. While I personally had optimism for him to be a low end RB1 this year, he’s looking more and more like a low end RB2/RB3, and is currently RB27.

So let’s do some math — RB2 for RB2 (Thompson <> Marshawn). Waiver wire for waiver wire (Fitz <> Jamaal). And then RB3 for WR1 (Howard << Julio). Should be obvious who won this trade. And to add insult to injury, Theo plays Paul this week while a player he traded for (Howard) is on bye, so the swing in points gives Paul a decidedly large advantage and almost assuredly hands him a W. Sorry Theo, I hate to be the one that gives you the D (pun intended) but if this catapults Paul to a 3rd league championship, you definitely deserve it.

-Benny

Benny Receives: Christian McCaffrey, Allen Robinson
Caleb Receives: Stefon Diggs, Julian Edelman

Benny’s Grade: A Caleb’s Grade: B-

After public harassment and general drama, Benny and Caleb have come around and struck a blockbuster deal. Caleb’s newly acquired A-Rob didn’t even have time to report to practice before being shipped off again to Benny’s squad.
CMac is arguably a top 5 RB this season and he’s already had his BYE week. Not only that, he entered his BYE with a career high 28 rushes (15, 2017). He’s also the best player in this trade.

A-Rob is having a tough time this season, but the Bears passing offense is overall lackluster. Trubisky is currently QB13 including his latest 43+ point explosion. However, that game gave a taste to fantasy owners the ceiling of this Bears offense. It was disappointing that A-Rob didn’t get a chance to capitalize and that most likely lowered his stock to make this trade possible. However, I still only see him as a lower end WR2 this season.

Diggs has proven he’s capable of putting up huge games on any given week and so far has yet to have any injury concerns which plagued him last season. The Vikings offensive line is very bad though. PFF (@PFF_Sam) says “”Minnesota’s O-line has now surrendered 81 total pressures through 4 games. The average OL gives up 160 over a season. Minnesota is on pace to give up 324. That would be the most we’ve seen in a decade by around 70.” That’s manifested itself in Cousins getting sacked/fumbling the ball multiple times (6th in sacks, 13th, actually lower than I would’ve thought). At the same time, Cook being injured leads to Cousins passing A LOT, #1 in attempts and completions, 3rd in yards through 4 weeks.

Edelman is more of an unknown to me. He’s missed all of 2017 due to injury and currently he’s projected to be more of a WR3 than a WR2. Brady: 18th in completions, 17th in attempts, 20th in yards. This is kind of alarming given that last season (also without Edelman), Brady finished #2 in completions, #1 in attempts, #1 in yards.

Usually the side with the best player wins the trade and this trade is no exception.

Kong Receives: Sterling Shepard, Sony Michel
Caleb Receives: Allen Robinson, Dalvin Cook

Kong’s Grade: B
Caleb’s Grade: B

My initial take was that Konky got swindled, the proverbial buy-high, sell-low trade made out of desperation. But the more I look at it, the less the trade makes sense to me from Caleb’s perspective.

Let’s start with what Caleb gave away. Sony Michel had easily his best game of the season last week. With the injury to Rex Burkhead and the blowout brewing vs. the Dolphins, both remaining New England running backs feasted on a game script ideally suited for them to dominate. How often are the pass-happy Pats going to run 40 times in one game? Sony Michel is obviously taking the carries & James White will take the receptions, so this has to be a fluke right?

Would it surprise you that the Pats were actually tied for 11th in the league in rushing attempts last season at 28 attempts/game? Give Michel 70% of those 28 carries/game and guess what? That’s 3 more carries than “high usage” Dalvin Cook has had in any game this season. Sure, you could argue that it’s been a small sample for the Vikings so far and Cook’s been injured, but with the deadly WR duo of Diggs and Thielen, is it worth feeding Cook the ball 20+ times a game when he’s banged up and only averaging 2.7 yds/carry this season? They didn’t even run the ball that much last year (21st in rushing attempts)! What evens this out a bit is Cook’s utility in the passing game. We got a taste of that a bit in Week 1 when Cook had 6 catches for 55 yds.

Moving on to the wide receivers, let’s be consistent and use the same basic analysis here. Guess who led the league in pass attempts last year? The Giants! Guess who was last in the league in pass attempts? Da Bears! Sure, the coaching staff at the Bears has changed and the offense is humming along now after Trubisky’s 6 TD game. The coaching staff is different, but the personality is similar enough — even this season, the Bears are 22nd in the league in pass attempts, while the Giants are 11th. Sure, those Giants passes aren’t going very far (7 yds/completion) but what we’re looking for is more shots on goal. Allen Robinson’s claim to fame this season has been targets. The production hasn’t always been there, but the targets have (he had a whopping 14 targets in Week 2). Guess who’s seeing an uptrend in targets? Sterling Shepard! He’s averaging 7.25 targets/game to Robinson’s 8/game, but adding in better efficiency & some touchdowns as well.

This is a long-winded way of saying, this trade isn’t as bad as it initially looked. Having said all that, what does this trade really do for either team? We’re trading RB2s for RB2s and WR2s for WR2s. Great, nothing happened. We wasted everyone’s time, especially mine since I had to write this whole thing up.

Benny Receives: Bilal Powell
Jesse Receives: Quincy Enunwa

Benny’s Grade: B Jesse’s Grade: A-

Let’s start by recapping where these guys went in the draft. Anderson and Crowell aren’t part of this, but let’s just see for fun:

• Enunwa: 14th round (188 overall)
• Powell: 8th round (100 overall)
• Anderson: 6th round (71 overall)
• Crowell: 7th round (90 overall)

Where do they rank now?

• Enunwa: WR31
• Powell: RB26
• Anderson: WR81
• Crowell: RB12

The season is still young, but I like Enunwa and think he could finish the season as a WR2. His role is clear as the #1 receiver in this offense.

Powell and Crowell appear to be in a timeshare with Powell as the pass catching back, but he had 0 catches last week. Positionally, Benny does need another RB so I like the move, but don’t love it since I’m partial to Enunwa.

At the same time Jesse had 7 surprisingly decent (but not stellar) RBs on his squad so getting rid of one makes sense to bolster his already strong WR corps.

- Alex

Caleb Receives: Jay Ajayi, Josh Gordon
Paul Receives: Jordan Howard, Kenny Golladay

Caleb’s Grade: B-
Paul’s Grade: A

Flashback to Vegas freeze frame: Paul receives true bell-cow RB2 Howard and talented WR2/3 Kenny G, while Caleb rolls the dice on Gordon’s league winning upside and Ajayi’s continued TD production in what should be a good offense. However, Caleb is taking on the “riskier” players in Gordon and Ajayi while Paul continues to raise the floor of his team, though Ajayi does provide him insurance in case his Clement gambit doesn’t pay off. However, taking on additional risk without greatly improving your ceiling seems like a bad move to me especially before week 2, so Caleb needs to lay off the “Josh Gordon Flashback to 2013” pipe as Paul wins this one.

-Benny

*Update:
Since the review was written, the following has transpired:

• Caleb traded J. Ajayi to Ramon for L. McCoy
• J. Gordon was announced OUT in week 2′s matchup vs. Saints
• Browns announced their intention to cut J. Gordon due to a reported loss of trust.
• Browns traded J. Gordon to the Patriots.

Paul C. Receives: C. Godwin, M. Goodwin, D. Pettis
Danny Receives: C. Newton, M. Williams

Paul C’s Grade: B
Danny’s Grade: A-

After drafting for an elite 2QB league team, Paul Chung decides to finally change course and compete appropriately in light of our league’s format.

Cam Newton’s versatility makes him a high-floor, elite QB1. Last season, in weeks without Olsen, Newton added 8.1 fantasy points per game on the ground. (For reference, that average would’ve resulted in a RB36 finish in the realm of RB3/FLEX territory.)

The cost for a top-5 fantasy QB comes at a low price tag:

• Chris Godwin is an exciting flex option. Godwin has received at least four targets in five games in his career. However, once Jackson returns from injury, Godwin will lose shots at WR2/3 upside.
• Marquis Goodwin is currently nursing an injury, drawing consecutive questionable tags. When healthy, consider him a WR3 with upside for WR2 finish in a fast-paced Jimmy G offense.
• Dante Pettis is at best a spot-start WR4/5 without long term value.

The only season-long startable pieces are Goodwin and Newton. C. Godwin and M. Williams essentially even each other out, as both stand as upside stashes and have to climb the depth chart to prove consistent flex value.

There shouldn’t be a huge market for QB’s, and the grade reflects that. But the better grade goes to Danny because he gets exposure to elite-ceiling production in Newton, whereas Goodwin is probably due for up-and-down weeks while recovering from injury.

-Paul L.

Ramon Receives: Marvin Jones Jr.
Sammy Receives: Jordan Reed

Ramon’s Grade: B+
Sammy’s Grade: B+

Not much to see here. Both owners are trying to fill a glaring need in their lineups. Ramon’s auto-draft gifted him two starting tight-ends in Reed and Kittle. George Kittle could potentially vault into top 5 TE territory. Kittle played on 80% of 49ers snaps, led team in targets (9), and his 13.1 average depth of target in Week 1 nearly matched Gronk’s (13.4).

Ramon gains a WR2/3 in Marvin Jones. Kenny G has historically eaten into Jones’ target share:

If Marvin Jones Jr. is going to start as Ramon’s best receiver, Ramon is relying on Lions OC Jim Bob Cooter. No team has run 11-personnel (3WR set) on passing downs more often than the Lions over the last two years (84%). If they maintain that pattern, all Lions receivers have a chance of reaching WR2 numbers with Jones alternating weeks of low floor finishes and big TD spikes.

Sammy is receiving a high-end TE1 in J. Reed. A. Smith has historically favored his tight end. While some may argue that there are streamable TE options in the waiver wire, Reed has boasted Gronk-tier upside in seasons past, as long as he stays healthy. That upside is worth chasing at the price of a WR2/3. Also, Allison can function as a startable WR in Sammy’s WR3 spot, as long as Rodger’s knee holds up.

Caleb’s Grade: B
Ramon Grade: B-

To what degree is this trade a typical buy-low, sell-high scenario? That depends entirely on projecting usage. Shady and Ajayi’s route to points are completely different. One runs in a committee tied to a great offense, while the other owns the backfield in an abysmal offense.

The bottom fell out for Shady last week, as he played only 53% of snaps. However, the Bills were most likely trying to preserve him in a blowout vs the Ravens. In order to project his role moving forward, last season’s usage while running alongside Tyrod Taylor may be more predictive, as Josh Allen, flashed similar mobility out of the pocket in his final year of college.

Shady still has a couple obstacles to overcome to replicate last season’s workhorse usage: a shaky QB situation and a porous offensive line (their offensive line cleared just 1.69 yards before initial contact for McCoy in a lackluster opener against the Ravens). Defenses are not respecting Buffalo’s receivers nearly enough to make running lanes for McCoy. Consequently, Shady’s new owner is leaning on receptions — as our resident Momofuku investor, Benny, often repeated on draft day, “someone has to catch those passes.” The Bills offense will be staring down plenty of second-and-long, third-and-long scenarios, which ought to open up plenty of PPR opportunities.

On the other side, Ajayi has his warts: his knee is void of cartilage, and his “workhorse” usage is historically inconsistent under Pedersen’s historical RBBC offense. When I owned him last week, I was on the verge of ordering Arby’s 5-for-5 just to deal with the anxiety.

But his TD upside reeled me back to a less unhealthy meal, as his red zone looks make up for his flex-level floors. Blount’s departure vacates 38% of total carries and 50% of attempts inside-10 (red-zone). Pedersen recently gave a press conference attributing Ajayi’s low usage in week 1 to his previous foot injury. Jay Ajayi only played on 39% snaps vs. Atlanta, yet handled more than half of RB carries and ran more routes than Corey Clement (10 to 6).

Ajayi doesn’t need to be a three-down back to reach RB1 weekly finishes. Most running backs who have three-down usage were already snatched in the first round of drafts. Ajayi simply needs to take control of Blount’s 2017 red zone looks and also see an increase in snaps to the realm of 50–55%. (For comparison, 53% is the number of snaps that Shady posted in week 1, and that was considered low for his standards.)

This trade doesn’t move the needle much for either team. I give Caleb the slightly better grade due to McCoy’s history, but that grade could easily reverse if Ajayi’s promised usage materializes.

Caleb Receives: Brandon Marshall, Terrelle Pryor
Alex Receives: Doug Baldwin

Caleb’s Grade: C+
Alex’s Grade: A-

This is a deal about short term vs. long term gains. Caleb made the deal with the intention of surviving in the next couple of weeks until Alshon returns, while Alex couldn’t help but pass on the value of trading a waiver wire pickup for a potential core starter. Let’s first take a look at Baldwin’s sliding value.

Based on different sources, there are two current estimations for Baldwin’s outlook after getting hit with a mid-grade MCL sprain:

• “Baldwin’s MCL sprain could be a 4–6 week recovery. Seahawks have week 7 bye, thus, it is possible for Baldwin to return as early as week 6.” (If Baldwin returns week 6 and averages current projections of 15 ppg, he would finish in the realm of WR3 overall.)
• “Baldwin’s MCL sprain will keep him out for a week or two, at most. By video, he has a mild MCL sprain. He should not need surgery and will certainly return soon, possibly as early as next week 3.” (If Baldwin returns in week 3–4 and averages his current projection of 15 ppg, he would finish in the realm of WR2 overall.)

Thus, Baldwin’s overall value in light of the injury sits somewhere in the realm of a WR2/3 finish, with upside-WR2 week by week production when he returns. Looking at Alex’s roster construction, he is willing to bank on his elite receiving duo and stream his third WR position, as Anthony Miller is not reliable for consistent production. When Baldwin returns somewhere between week 4–7, Alex may field arguably the best receiving trio in Odell, Allen, and Baldwin. That is a high upside strategy worth chasing at Dollar General cost.

On the other side of the deal, Caleb receives two flex options in Marshall and Pryor. Brandon Marshall is by far the more intriguing of the two:

• Marshall played 64% snaps and saw 6 targets for a 19% target share, while seeing 3 targets in red zone situations.
• Marshall led all Seattle wideouts in targets a week ago.

Wilson is going to give Marshall chances to win contested catch situations, as Graham’s departure opened up a significant portion of red zone targets. Also, negative game scripts are certainly coming, as even Rashaad Penny saw one less target than Marshall.

Marshall’s flex value is temporary. Caleb is projecting that plummet in value to coincide with Jeffery’s return. This is not a horrible strategy, but it is a low upside bet.

There was plenty of meat left on the bone in their trade talks. Instead of asking for Pryor (who also will see low-flex value vanish with Kearse’s impending return), an ask for one of Alex’s flex RB’s in Breida, Morris (even Cohen) in addition to Marshall would’ve better justified the trade.

#tiffandvince Preseason Trade Summary

Welcome to a new season of fantasy football! We have a flurry of preseason trades to review. In spirit of newness, we have a new visualization of player values:

After a very eventful weekend of celebrating #tiffandvince, our enlightened one, Benny Huang, has provided his input on the weekend’s slate of trades below.

Caleb Receives: Jordan Howard, Sterling Shepard
Theo Receives: Leonard Fournette

Caleb’s Grade: A
Theo’s Grade: A

Initial reaction — Fournette for Jordan Howard?? What a steal!! All you had to do was throw in waiver fodder Sterling Shepard!! An RB1 for an RB2!!

But not so fast — I owned both these guys last year and the difference isn’t as big as it seems. Let’s see what the stats say:

• Rookie Jordan Howard stats: 1313 Rushing Yds (5.2 YPC) 6 TDs, 298 Receiving Yds, 29 Rec, 1 Rec TD. Didn’t become starter until week 3 after Matt Forte Injury, 15/16 GP
• Rookie Leonard Fournette: 1040 Rushing Yds (3.9 YPC), 9 TDs, 302 Receiving Yds, 36 Rec, 1 Rec TD. Played in 13/16 games but started from Week 1, and dealt with nagging ankle issue in last few games
• Jordan Howard last year: 1,122 Rushing Yds (4.1 YPC), 9 TDs, 125 Receiving yds, 23 Rec 16/16 GP

You say, “But Leonard Fournette was injured!!” True, no telling how that affected him, but even in the best case scenario he’s just a little bit better than Rookie Jordan Howard. Not to mention Fournette has had injury concerns since college. Jordan Howard played in one of the worst offenses in the league last year, and the year before that they had Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Barkley at the helm. 2ndyear Mitch Trubisky is supposedly an upgrade on all those guys. Meanwhile, Blake Bortles had a career year last year backed by the best defense in the league. Some things are bound to regress to the mean. That being said, there’s a risk Trubisky is awful, and we know that at worst Blake Bortles is mediocre, so the upside for Fournette is still probably higher given that he can stay healthy. But don’t discount Sterling Shepard in evening things out, who is legitimately talented in his own right and could be a legit flex/WR3 play given the opportunity. Both teams get an A for me.

Sammy Receives: Cooper Kupp
Ramon Receives: Sammy Watkins

Sammy’s Grade: A
Ramon’s Grade: B

Sammy Watkins hasn’t been fantasy relevant for about 3 years, but Ramon’s taking a gamble here on a Mahomes — Watkins connection blossoming this year. Win for Sam as Kupp has an established PPR floor and strong connection with Jared Goff in a good offense, not to mention being drafted earlier. Not a risk I would take but kudos to Ramon if it works out.

Bode Receives: Jay Ajayi
Theo Receives: Jamaal Williams

Bode’s Grade: B+
Theo’s Grade: A-

Paul receives an upside RB2 in Ajayi, while Theo receives upside RB2 or potentially RB1 potential in Jamaal Williams. Paul has enough solid floor players to take the risk with Williams IMHO, who could be poised to duplicate Eddie Lacy’s 2013 season, the last season we saw an every-week RB1 play for the Packers. Ajayi is looking to duplicate his 2016 breakout year, and both players are in great offenses, but the difference for me is that Jamaal Williams won’t have to deal with the likes of Darren Sproles or Corey Clement stealing touches as Mike McCarthy likes to feed just 1 guy (Ty Montgomery will seemingly be deployed more as a WR than RB). Also Aaron Rodgers > Wentz, no matter how good Wentz was last year. On the flipside, we only saw a few games of Jamaal Williams last season, who looked better as a receiver than runner, while Ajayi has that memorable 200+ yard game from 2016, so what do I know *shrug*

Caleb Receives: Corey Clement
Sammy Receives: Theo Riddick

Caleb’s Grade: B
Sammy’s Grade: A-

Nothing really moves the needle here. Sam receives a known PPR commodity at RB while Caleb takes a gamble on “Super Bowl Hero” Corey Clement. Clement’s upside seems limited while the Eagles are committed to Ajayi and is 3rd on the depth chart behind Sproles. I’m not a big fan of trading known quantities for upside stashes before the season even starts, but the gamble could have big payoffs if Ajayi were to get hurt. Maybe Caleb has some insider info that I don’t know about. Rated in favor of Sam based purely on current actual value.