SmallBabyBears (9–4)
Giant Split Ace Pair
Barkley and Beckham are stuck on a pedestrian offense, but both players hold big play ability that can turn any matchup in Alex’s favor. Saquon has reached an elite top speed of 20+ mph on 4 rushes this season (T-most in NFL). And Odell averages 11.5 air yards per target, outpacing Antonio Brown.
Diggs Double Down
Diggs is an athletic monster on a pass-heavy Vikings offense. He sees a large amount of targets, tied for 8th in the league. He can pay off in a massive way; however, his injury report history shows a double down may not always go in Alex’s favor. When Diggs is listed on the injury report, he averages 9.06 ppg.
Fournette’s Volume
Fournette’s volume makes him a safe and solid hand, as long as he doesn’t punch anymore NFL helmets. Even though he averages 3.47 YPC, Fournette sees an incredible share of the team’s touches (23 carries per game). Any receiving work on top of his rushing floor is gravy.
Other Players: Newton, Ware, Burton
Need That Good JuJu (7–6)
21 Never Ertz
Ertz is the top TE play in the fantasy playoffs. Ertz has more receptions when aligned wide or in the slot than any TE this season. When compared to WR, Ertz is seeing more total targets than the likes of several premier slot receivers: Keenan Allen, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Jarvis Landry.
Good JuJu Delivered
Benny’s trade for JuJu was panned by critics. Sending Melvin Gordon away to a juggernaut was risky, but with Melvin possibly not suiting up this week, JuJu could payoff in a big way. JuJu has been a beneficiary of Brown’s presence: JuJu is averaging 3.19 yards separation per target, compared to Brown’s 2.67.
A-Rob is A-Rob
A-Rob’s has been a bit spotty this season, posting massive numbers as a downfield threat in a prolific Trubisky offense (who would’ve thought that would be a thing?). However, he is also capable of putting up sub-40 yard efforts. He is a must-play, but like hitting on 16, A-Rob is capable of busting.
Other Players: Sanders, Ekeler, Wilson
CCTHISYEARSKHUNT (8–5)
Patriot Act
Gordon and Edelman give Caleb a tantalizing duo to field in the playoffs. There is some risk: Gordon faces a round 1 shadow from stud Miami CB Xavien Howard, and Brady failed to post a top-15 week during his first go-around against rival AFC east opponents. He will see those teams again in the playoffs.
Chef Dalvin
Dalvin Cook looks fully recovered, posting several positive games (4.6 rec/game in the past 3 weeks, and hit 9.3 YPC in Week 13). However, his volume is sometimes not enough to overcome the lack of inefficiency and negative game script. If the Vikings can play competitively against Seattle and Miami, Dalvin could see ceiling weeks.
Hilton Honors Rewards
Hilton faced his toughest test last week against Jags CB Ramsey, and he still finished as WR17 overall last week. If a WR1/2 finish is his floor, then he could reach his ceiling against the Texans in Week 14. Texans pass defense was shredded by Hilton for 115 yards the last time they faced each other.
Other Players: Brees, Sutton, Humphries
Thanks Le’Veon (8–5)
Best Hand in the Game
Hopkins catches everything. He has zero dropped passes this year, building on a foundation of owning 43% of the Texan’s air yards, all while seeing less cushion from pass defenses this season.
Red Zone Rifle
One area in which Adams has come up particularly large for Rodgers has been in the red zone. Since the start of 2017, Rodgers has targeted Adams 22 times in the red zone, leading to 14 rec, 10 TDs, and no INT. That TD mark is tied for the league lead of any combination inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
Rewarding Split or Bust
Depending on their health situations, Melvin Gordon and James Conner could possibly sink Gordon’s team. Monitor their situations closely, as Melvin is recovering from knee injury, and Conner is dealing with an ankle sprain. If either are able to suit up for fantasy playoffs, pencil each guy in for massive rushing and receiving workloads as RB1’s.
Other Players: Lockett, Ebron, A. Jones
Boyds and Gurls Club (9–4)
Roller Coaster Reek
Less than six points separates Tyreek from Antonio. However, owning Tyreek is nothing like owning Antonio Brown on a week-by-week frame. Antonio averages a deviation of 4.3 points, while Tyreek sees an average deviation of 11.7 points. That variation is massive, and could pay huge dividends in positive scoring weeks.
Gurls Club
Gurley is the best player in fantasy. He has been the most consistent RB in the NFL on runs from under center, as he has seen double the rate of light boxes (6 defenders or less) and 1/3 the rate of stacked boxes (8+ defenders). The fewer the defenders in the box, the higher the rushing efficiency, and Gurley exploits that ten times out of ten.
Houston Houdini
Watson has regressed from last season’s outstanding performance, partially due to his reduced number of pass attempts in a very run-heavy Texans offense. Watson hasn’t surpassed 250 passing yards since Week 5 against the Cowboys. One area of optimism is his completion % selling the run in play action (68% completion). That should keep his QB1 status alive.
Other Players: Boyd, J. White, J. Adams
rb’s melts (11–2)
C Mac and Cheese
Christian McCaffrey has scored 164 PPR points over the last five weeks. For reference, only 14 individual RBs have put up more than 164 PPR points this entire season. His dual threat status has come to fruition, as he is averaging 88 rushing yards per game over the last five weeks.
Another White Guy
When targeting Thielen, Kirk Cousins is completing 75.7 percent of his passing attempts and sporting a 122.1 passer rating. Thielen is also among the top receivers in targets (134), team’s share of air yards (36%). As long as Cousins is being pressured to throw often, Thielen will remain a surefire stud out of the slot.
Golden Tater Tots
Since making his Eagles debut in Week 10, Golden Tate has been targeted 20 times on 62 routes (32.3% target rate). No wide receiver has been targeted more often per route this season than Tate. However, there are risks as the Eagles offense has sputtered of late. If the Eagles offense resembles a Super Bowl hangover, Tate’s involvement in the passing game may materialize in nothing more than a drain on Alshon’s usage.
Other Players: J. Jones, D. Johnson, K. Golladay
